Beneath A Steady Race, A Shifting America

In this holiday installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks back at some of the most important political events of 2023 as well as some of the weirder political stories of the year. They also debate the thorny question of which types of cookies can be considered "Christmas cookies" in a festive edition of "Good or Bad Use of Polling." To wrap it all up, they play "Guess What Americans Think" and guess the answers to polling questions like, "If Santa were a registered voter, which party would he belong to?"  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

21 Dec 20231h 7min

On this special reaction edition of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Kimberly Wehle, professor of law at the University of Baltimore, and Geoffrey Skelley, senior elections analyst, about the recent ruling from the Colorado Supreme Court that bars Trump from the Colorado Republican primary ballot. They discuss the legal grounding of this ruling, the political reaction and the prospect of the U.S. Supreme Court weighing in. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

20 Dec 202324min

The U.S. House adjourned for the holidays last week after voting along party lines to authorize an impeachment inquiry into President Biden. The Senate is delaying its holiday recess as negotiators try to hash out a deal that would include aid to Ukraine and Israel as well as funding for border security and possible changes to asylum law. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew heads to Washington to discuss how Congress is closing out the year and what Americans think about it. They also mark just four weeks until the Iowa caucuses and look at what the data says about how much the polls have historically moved during the final stretch before caucus day. And they wrap up by taking stock of how likely Americans were to vote in 2023. Since Trump was elected in 2016, the country has been in an era of historically high turnout in elections. Did that continue this year, and does that portend anything for next year? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

19 Dec 20231h 7min

In early 2020, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told New York Magazine that, “In any other country [she and President Joe Biden] would not be in the same party.” Yet, by April of that year, after Bernie Sanders dropped out, she “absolutely” threw her support behind Biden, saying “the stakes are too high when it comes to another four years of [former President Donald] Trump.” Since Trump’s victory in 2016, opposition to the former president has served as one of the strongest organizing principles for the Democratic Party. And that dynamic has likely helped paper over some of the “progressive left vs. establishment” divides that were visible in the 2016 and 2020 primaries. While the 2024 Democratic primary is essentially uncompetitive, some cracks in that unity have still emerged. For example, since Biden took office, one of his steepest declines in support has been among young voters, a cohort that backed Sanders in 2016 and 2020. Differing views of the current war between Israel and Hamas have further highlighted the generational divide in the party. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with author Joshua Green about those divides, where they come from and how they may manifest in 2024. Green’s new book is titled, “The Rebels: Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and the Struggle for a New American Politics.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Dec 202336min

Former President Donald Trump attracted attention for his answer in a town hall with Sean Hannity last week suggesting he would not abuse his power as president in a second term, “except for Day One.” His answer came after extensive reporting on how his second-term plans would challenge democratic norms and accepted limits on presidential power on issues ranging from Department of Justice investigations to domestic use of the military. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with constitutional law professor Kate Shaw and professor of government Brendan Nyhan about Trump's second-term agenda. They discuss which aspects of it butt up against norms and the Constitution and which parts might simply be objectionable to partisans. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

11 Dec 202351min

Galen unpacks the fourth Republican primary debate from Tuscaloosa, Alabama with senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley and White House correspondent MaryAlice Parks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

7 Dec 202337min

In the month since the last Republican debate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has been inching up in the national polls, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been slipping. Today, DeSantis leads Haley by just 3 points nationally, 13 percent to 10 percent. They are similarly close in Iowa, and Haley leads DeSantis by a sizable margin in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Former President Donald Trump is at 60 percent nationally and 40-some percent in the early states. There were already rumblings about Haley supplanting DeSantis as the alternative to Trump, and then, last Tuesday, Americans for Prosperity — the political arm of the Koch network — endorsed Haley, throwing its financial and organizing weight behind her. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew considers whether Haley really has a shot of winning the Republican primary. They also dive into one of the intractable polling questions of our time: What’s the deal with issue polling? In other words, when pollsters ask voters about the issues motivating them or how they feel about a certain policy, what information are voters giving us? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

4 Dec 20231h 3min

Exactly one year ago today, OpenAI launched ChatGPT. And quickly, the program changed the conversation around what is possible for artificial intelligence. In the past 12 months, we've seen campaign videos featuring AI-generated images, legislative proposals and a congressional hearing on AI regulation. By all accounts, the 2024 presidential election is going to be our first "AI election." However, often the specifics around AI’s impact remain vague. How exactly could it impact our electoral politics? In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, the interim dean of the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago. Bueno de Mesquita’s research focuses on game theory, political conflict and electoral accountability, and he recently co-authored the white paper "Preparing for Generative AI in the 2024 Election: Recommendations and Best Practices Based on Academic Research." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

30 Nov 202347min