150 | Simon DeDeo on How Explanations Work and Why They Sometimes Fail

150 | Simon DeDeo on How Explanations Work and Why They Sometimes Fail

You observe a phenomenon, and come up with an explanation for it. That's true for scientists, but also for literally every person. (Why won't my car start? I bet it's out of gas.) But there are literally an infinite number of possible explanations for every phenomenon we observe. How do we invent ones we think are promising, and then decide between them once invented? Simon DeDeo (in collaboration with Zachary Wojtowicz) has proposed a way to connect explanatory values ("simplicity," "fitting the data," etc) to specific mathematical expressions in Bayesian reasoning. We talk about what makes explanations good, and how they can get out of control, leading to conspiracy theories or general crackpottery, from QAnon to flat earthers.

Support Mindscape on Patreon.

Simon DeDeo received his Ph.D. in astrophysics from Princeton University. He is currently an Assistant Professor in Social and Decision Sciences at Carnegie Mellon University, and External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute.


Avsnitt(418)

Bonus | Cuts to Science Funding and Why They Matter

Bonus | Cuts to Science Funding and Why They Matter

The Trump administration, led by Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency, has proposed sweeping cuts to spending on science research here in the US, in particular at the National Institu...

12 Feb 20251h 10min

304 | James Evans on Innovation, Consolidation, and the Science of Science

304 | James Evans on Innovation, Consolidation, and the Science of Science

It is a feature of many human activities - sports, cooking, music, interpersonal relations - that being able to do them well doesn't necessarily mean you can accurately describe how to do them well. S...

10 Feb 20251h 16min

303 | AMA | February 2025

303 | AMA | February 2025

Welcome to the February 2025 Ask Me Anything episode of Mindscape! These monthly excursions are funded by Patreon supporters (who are also the ones asking the questions). We take questions asked by Pa...

3 Feb 20253h 44min

303 | James P. Allison on Fighting Cancer with the Immune System

303 | James P. Allison on Fighting Cancer with the Immune System

A typical human lifespan is approximately three billion heartbeats in duration. Lasting that long requires not only intrinsic stability, but an impressive capacity for self-repair. Nevertheless, thing...

27 Jan 20251h 7min

302 | Chris Kempes on the Biophysics of Evolution

302 | Chris Kempes on the Biophysics of Evolution

Randomness plays an important role in the evolution of life (as my evil twin will tell you). But random doesn't mean arbitrary. Biological organisms are physical objects, after all, and subject to the...

20 Jan 20251h 30min

301 | Tina Eliassi-Rad on Al, Networks, and Epistemic Instability

301 | Tina Eliassi-Rad on Al, Networks, and Epistemic Instability

Big data is ruling, or at least deeply infiltrating, all of modern existence. Unprecedented capacity for collecting and analyzing large amounts of data have given us a new generation of artificial int...

13 Jan 20251h 9min

300 | Solo: Does Time Exist?

300 | Solo: Does Time Exist?

A new year, and a new centennial -- 300 (regularly-numbered) episodes of Mindscape! Our tradition is to have a solo episode, and what better topic than the nature of time? Physicists and philosophers ...

6 Jan 20252h 11min

Holiday Message | Hits and Misses

Holiday Message | Hits and Misses

It's the end of the year, and time for our annual holiday break here at Mindscape. But as usual, we wrap up with a Holiday Message. This year, inspired by Joni Mitchell's "Hits" and "Misses" albums, I...

23 Dec 20242h 1min

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