Seven: Richard Moulange on how AI now designs genomes from scratch and outperforms virologists at lab work — what could go wrong?

For years, one thing stood between us and a world where almost anyone could build a biological weapon: it was really, really hard.

Working with dangerous pathogens required rare, hands-on lab skills — the kind you can't just Google. Experts called this 'tacit knowledge,' and it was our best line of defence against bad actors weaponising biology.

That defence is now crumbling.

The Virology Capabilities Test measures exactly these kinds of skills, and finds that modern AI models crushed top human virologists — even in their area of greatest specialisation and expertise — with AI averaging 45% on the test, and human experts scoring only 22%.

And that’s just one data point. But as Dr Richard Moulange, one of the world’s top experts on AI biosecurity, explains: it’s just one of many that show how AI is dissolving the barriers that have historically kept biological weapons out of reach.

In September 2025, scientists used an AI model to design genomes for entirely new bacteriophages (viruses that infect bacteria). They then built them in a lab. Many were viable. And despite never having existed before, some even outperformed existing viruses from that family.

Meanwhile, Anthropic’s research shows that PhD-level biologists are getting meaningfully better at weapons-relevant tasks with AI assistance — and the effect is growing with each new model generation.

In this conversation, Richard and host Rob Wiblin discuss:

• Why it’s a huge mistake to dismiss AI biorisks
• What AI biology tools already exist
• Why mid-tier actors (not amateurs) are the ones getting the most dangerous boost
• The three main categories of defence we can pursue
• Whether there’s a plausible path to a world where engineered pandemics become a thing of the past

Learn more and read the full transcript on the 80,000 Hours website.

Since recording this episode on January 16, 2026, Richard has seconded to the UK Government — please note that his views expressed here are entirely his own.

Chapters:

• Cold open (00:00:00)
• Who’s Richard Moulange? (00:00:31)
• AI can now design novel viruses (00:01:11)
• The end of the 'tacit knowledge' barrier (00:04:42)
• Are risks from bioterrorists overstated? (00:18:50)
• The 3 key disasters AI makes more likely (00:23:14)
• Which bad actors does AI help the most? (00:30:43)
• Experts are more scary than amateurs (00:42:07)
• Barriers to bioterrorists using AI (00:47:32)
• AI biorisks are sometimes dismissed (and that’s a huge mistake) (00:49:43)
• Advanced AI biology tools we already have or will soon (01:05:12)
• Rob argues that the situation is hopeless (01:10:57)
• Intervention #1: Limit access (01:19:38)
• Intervention #2: Get AIs to refuse to help (01:34:28)
• Intervention #3: Surveillance and attribution (01:44:18)
• Intervention #4: Universal vaccines and antivirals (01:58:28)
• Intervention #5: Screen all orders for DNA (02:12:01)
• AI companies talk about def/acc more than they fund it (02:21:57)
• Can you build a profitable business solving this problem? (02:28:44)
• This doesn't have to interfere with useful science (much) (02:33:08)
• What are the best low-tech interventions? (02:35:16)
• Richard's top request for AI companies (02:40:17)
• Grok shows governments lack many legal levers (02:55:44)
• Best ways listeners can help fix AI-Bio (02:58:54)
• We might end all contagious disease in 20 years (03:06:12)

Video and audio editing: Dominic Armstrong, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, and Simon Monsour
Music: CORBIT
Camera operator: Jeremy Chevillotte
Transcripts and web: Elizabeth Cox and Katy Moore