BG2 Thanksgiving Roundtable: DOGE, EV Tax Credit, Tariffs, Conspiracy Theories, Invest America

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by a surprise guest, and discuss Stargate, executive orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:21) Stargate(15:07) Dylan Patel and Semianalysis take on Stargate(17:56) Stargate’s Impact on AI Competitive Landscape(29:03) DeepSeek(32:03) Special Guest Rene Haas (CEO of ARM Holdings)(49:46) DeepSeek continued(51:53) Trumps Executive Orders & Regulatory Freeze(54:10) Coordination in AI Legistlation(59:38) US National Debt and Balancing the Budget(1:01:08) TikTok(1:05:48) Tech CheckProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyRene Haas @renehaas237BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

23 Jan 1h 11min

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss Brad’s public market predictions, AI enthusiasm and fears, interest rates, inflation, DOGE, federal budget analysis, big tech capex, scaling inference, Satya Nadella, Jensen Huang, Elon Musk, AI reasoning models, chain of thought,  & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:58) Frontline Ideas for 2025(07:02) The Bogeyman (Interest Rates and Inflation)(09:21) Mega Cap Valuations & Expectations(14:02) Big Tech CapEx(16:51) Scaling Inference(20:11) Future of AI(39:50) Role of Power in AI Development(42:58) Interest Rates & Economic Growth(45:11) Federal Spending & DOGE(54:15) Regulatory Landscape for AI(01:01:27) Co-opetition in AI(01:17:06) Reasoning Models & Chain of ThoughtProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

11 Jan 1h 23min

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Dylan Patel, Founder & Chief Analyst at SemiAnalysis, to discuss origins of SemiAnalysis, Google's AI workload, NVIDIA's competitive edge, the shift to GPUs in data centers, the challenges of scaling AI pre-training, synthetic data generation, hyperscaler capital expenditures, the paradox of building bigger clusters despite claims that pretraining is obsolete, inference-time compute, NVIDIA's comparison to Cisco, evolving memory technology, chip competition, future predictions, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:50) Dylan Patel Backstory(02:36) SemiAnalysis Backstory(04:18) Google's AI Workload(06:58) NVIDIA's Edge(10:59) NVIDIA's Incremental Differentiation(13:12) Potential Vulnerabilities for NVIDIA(17:18) The Shift to GPUs: What It Means for Data Centers(22:29) AI Pre-training Scaling Challenges(29:43) If Pretraining Is Dead, Why Bigger Clusters?(34:00) Synthetic Data Generation(36:26) Hyperscaler CapEx(38:12) Pre-training and Inference-tIme Reasoning(41:00) Cisco Comparison to NVIDIA(44:11) Inference-time Compute(53:18) The Future of AI Models and Market Dynamics(01:00:58) Evolving Memory Technology(01:06:46) Chip Competition(01:07:18) AMD(01:10:35) Google’s TPU(01:14:51) Amason’s Tranium(01:17:33) Predictions for 2025 and 2026Produced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyDylan Patel @dylan522pBG2 Pod @bg2pod

23 Dec 20241h 29min

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, to discuss becoming Microsoft’s CEO, Advice for CEO’s, Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI, Legacy Search, Ten Blue Links, Consumer and Enterprise AI, The Future of AI Agents, Infinite Memory, CoPilot, Microsoft’s Capital Expenditure, Open AI’s future, AI safety & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:31) Becoming Microsoft CEO(06:42) Satya’s Memo to CEO Committee(10:42) Satya’s Advantage as a CEO(11:34) Advice for CEOs(15:01) Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI(19:42) AI Arms Race(23:55) Legacy Search and Consumer AI(28:07) The Future of AI Agents(38:32) Near-Infinite Memory(39:47) Copilot Approach to AI Adoption(50:26) Leveraging AI within Microsoft(56:03) CapX(01:00:20) The Cost of Model Scaling and Inference(01:15:15) Open AI Conversion to Profit(01:18:05) Next Steps for OpenAI(01:19:43) Open vs. Closed and Safe AIProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod

12 Dec 20241h 24min

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss AI Scaling Laws, the future of inference, AI memory and actions, National Full Self-Driving Regulations, FSD 13, Robotaxi and Waymo, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:00) AI Scaling Laws(05:54) Implications of AI Scaling Trends(12:20) The Future of Inference and Data Quality(17:51) AI Memory and Actions(21:47) National Full Self-Driving Regulation(23:14) FSD 13(29:41) Market Disruption: Winners and Losers in the Auto Industry(31:18) The Future of OEM’s(40:41) Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)(54:47) Tech Market CheckProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcapBill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod

21 Nov 20241h 3min

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Jamin Ball (Partner at Altimeter) to discuss the state of venture capital and incentives, implications of overcapitalization, the future of power law returns, AI’s impact on investment strategies, the future of AI and CapEx, the market’s reactions to the 2024 election, the evolution of search and AI integration, Nasa, SpaceX, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:52) Bill’s Dad | from Nasa to SpaceX(06:20) State of VC and Incentives w/ Jamin Ball(12:31) Implications of Overcapitalization(25:08) The Future of Power Law Returns(38:28) The Impact of AI on Investment Strategies(46:00) Future of AI and Capital Expenditure(52:21) Market Reactions to 2024 Election(01:00:45) Evolution of Search and AI IntegrationProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2podJamin Ball @jaminball⁠Shownotes Clouded Judgement Substack#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod

31 Okt 20241h 6min

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, joined by Sunny Madra (Groq) they discuss Jensen Huang’s recent appearance on the podcast, including scaling intelligence towards AGI, NVIDIA's strategic positioning, the role of CUDA in the developer ecosystem, the future of inference workloads, systems-level thinking,  Elon Musk's influence on AI development, the future of AI assistants, open vs closed AI models, safety and security in AI development, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.Chapters(00:00) Introduction and Initial Reactions to Jensen(04:32) NVIDIA's Position in Accelerated Compute(05:11) CUDA and NVIDIA’s Competitive Moat(12:53) Challenges to NVIDIA’s Competitive Advantage(18:22) Future Outlook on Inference(24:46) The Insatiable Demand for AI and Hardware(27:12) Elon Musk' and X.ai(31:47) Scaling AI Models and Clusters(34:17) Economic Models and Funding in AI(39:08) The Future of AI Pricing and Consumption Models(42:25) Memory, Actions, and Intelligent Agents(47:08) The Role of AI in Business Productivity(51:03) Open vs Closed Models in AI DevelopmentProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung Spielberg#jensenhuang #nvidia #bradgerstner #billgurley #clarktang #xai #memphiscluster #elonmusk #noambrown #openai #gptstrawberry

13 Okt 202454min