Ep86. Is Democracy Dead? Or actually alive and kicking?

Can we ever truly achieve Order in the international system? Or is life itself just a deterministic jumble of uncontrollable events? Do humans crave order so much that they perceive it even when it is absent – leading to conspiracy theories? And should policymakers avoid optimization and prediction and embrace experimentation, resilience, and slack to fix the problems of our era of Global Enduring Disorder?    This week we celebrate the six-month anniversary of Disorder, by talking with a guest from our very first episode, the man who inspired this podcast, Brian Klaas. Brian’s page-turning new book ‘Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters’, is not only a dynamic read, it has much to say about whether our lives, our politics, and our relationships can ever be truly ordered. In the conversation, Brian and Jason agree disagreeably about the following issues: do most people believe that good things happen to good people, that one’s lot in life is somehow earned, and that ‘things happen for a reason’? Can some disorder be good in our personal lives? Is Order a spiritual rather than a rational virtue?     Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Pick up Fluke by visiting - https://brianpklaas.com/fluke     For more of Brian’s writing visit - https://www.forkingpaths.co/      Listen to a great audio overview of the book here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

26 Mars 202447min

Every year, Freedom House releases an annual ‘global democracy health check’. According to it, the world is getting sicker. In this year’s ‘Freedom in the World’ report -- which reviews the state of democracy, civil, and political rights in every country -- political and civil liberties have got worse in 52 countries, while in only 21 countries have they improved.     What dynamics lie behind this trend? And what does it signify for the future?     To find out, Alex is joined by the President of Freedom House, Mike Abramowitz. Prior to running Freedom House, Mike was a Senior Executive at the Holocaust Museum, and before that, he worked for 24 years at the Washington Post, as national editor, and then White House correspondent. He also has the distinction of being one of only a handful of ‘named’ American citizens singled out for special sanctions by the Chinese Government, imposed on him in 2020 as a response to his support for the Hong Kong Democracy movement. In the episode, Alex and Mike delve into the report in more detail, the threats facing elections around the world, the implications of the stifling of the free press, and what could be done to revive the recent decline in global freedom.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack here   Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    To read Freedom House’s Freedom In The World Report here   For more on Mike Abramowitz visit Freedom House   His article in TIME, ‘How Authoritarian Regimes Go After Journalists Beyond Their Borders’ can be read here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

19 Mars 202437min

In this year of monumental elections, there is none which looms larger than the grandaddy of them all: the 2024 US Presidential Elections. With the US Primary season all but over, the match up appears set between the “disorderer-in-chief” Donald Trump and Joe Biden. But in the wake of Super Tuesday is that match up really set? Or might an open convention scenerio emerge leading to last minute switch up? And what are the global implications for a long and protracted race between two candidates with vastly different approaches to America’s place in the world and fostering global order? And what are the implications of two wildly unpopular candidates running for President with each seeking to present themselves as the least bad option?    To answer these questions and more, Alex Hall Hall is joined by Rick Davis. Rick was a senior political consultant on multiple presidential campaigns, including for George H W Bush and for Bob Dole. He also served as Senator John McCain’s national campaign manager in 2000 and 2008. He is currently a partner at Stone Court Capital, a private equity investor located in New York City. Alex and he discuss his time managing John McCain’s campaign, how Trump has conducted a hostile takeover of the Republican Party, and how we can understand the demographic shifts that have remade the face of the Republican party over the last two decades.    As they Order the Disorder, Alex and Jason discuss the prevalent double standards which are used when analyzing Biden’s record on the economy, Gaza, and Ukraine, how Congress could proactively prevent some of the potentially disordering impacts of a future potential Trump presidency, and looking forward to 2028, how a whole new class of political leaders appears bound to emerge.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Rick’s bio here   For more on Rick Davis’s career head here Read more on Davis and Lobbying here   Further background on Super Tuesday and Nikki Haley’s Departure from the Republican Primary here On Super Tuesday and Dean Phillips Departure from the Democratic Primary here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

12 Mars 20241h 5min

When it comes to working together to face external challenges, no challenge could be greater than extraterrestrial life… and this seemingly abstract problem could be more pressing than you think. In 2023, Air Force Colonel David Grusch spoke before Congress to present his firsthand evidence of alien spacecraft remains and non-human ‘biologics’. In his testimony, he claimed that parts of the United States Government and defense contractors were hiding these facts from disclosure to Congress. So, in response, the Senate unanimously passed what is known as the ‘UAP Disclosure Act’ -- legislation which would compel defense contractors and the CIA to disclose all information to Congress and then mandate a structured disclosure of parts of this sensitive information to the public. The parts of this act which grant Congress enforcement power are being held up by a handful of Congressmen in the House.    But do Colonel Grush’s claims hold any weight? And if they did, would global powers successfully co-ordinate on issues pertaining to extraterrestrial life? And why aren’t parts of the US Government sharing information with other parts of USG?    To answer those questions and more, Jason Pack is joined by Daniel Sheehan. Daniel is the head of the New Paradigm Institute. A Harvard educated civil rights lawyer who has worked on many high profile cases like Watergate, Daniel tells Jason about his discussions with Gorbachev about UAPs, why he believes information about UAPs is being withheld, and why he thinks releasing this ‘information’ to the world is the right thing to do.    Meanwhile, Alex and Jason discuss: why Daniel’s argument of a ‘shadow government’ feels unlikely, their own experience of times when governments don’t share information coherently between departments, and whether Colonel Grusch feels like a credible whistleblower.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    US Congress passes stripped-down measure to release UFO records: link   UAP disclosure bill revised; two key provisions stripped, read here   About the New Paradigm Institute: https://newparadigminstitute.org/     For more Sheehan’s advocacy head here   Read a reputable British science journalist’s take of Congressional UAP issues here   Listen to Sheehan on the Lede Podcast talking more about the details of the UAP disclosure Act here   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

5 Mars 202448min

In the days following Navalny’s murder, Western leaders have made all too predictable speeches and issued all too predictable condemnations. But as of yet, very little concrete action has been taken to respond to the murder of Russia’s most prominent opposition politician. The West talks the talk, but has yet to walk the walk. How should Biden, Sunak and Ursula Van Der Leyen hit Putin where it actually hurts and genuinely punish him for his actions?     In this episode of Disorder, Jason Pack sits down with successful investor, globally acclaimed author, and famous philanthropist/humanitarian advocate, Bill Browder. A close friend of Navalny, Browder talks of his emotions at hearing of his ally’s death, how ‘demoralizing’ the news is for ordinary people opposing Putin’s regime, and what the West can now do to turn their words of condemnation and outrage into concrete actions.    Bill recalls that when he first went to Russia in the 1990s, a chaotic and poorly-organized mafia gradually spread throughout the country. Then, it spread its tentacles throughout the world. And we in the West essentially let this happen. And now Navalny has died bearing further witness to the extent of corruption, indecency, and thuggery in Russia. We must not stand idly by.  Browder’s interview concludes with a passionate plea to Western governments – especially the United Kingdom – to work together to confiscate Russian cash reserves and free other imprisoned opposition leaders.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Jason’s article in USAToday about Navalny's messianism, its historical antecedents, and what the West should do to honour his memory and punish Putin. Read here Read Bill Browder’s bio here   Read Browder’s ‘Freezing Order’ here   ‘How Bill Browder Became Russia’s Most Wanted Man’ by the New Yorker can be found here   From the Guardian, ‘More deaths are coming’: fears over fate of other Russian political prisoners after Navalny’s death’ can be read here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

27 Feb 202458min

Wars are raging in Ukraine and the Middle East. Russia’s most famous opposition politician (Alexei Navalany) has just been murdered. Meanwhile, the international institutions set up after World War 2 to uphold peace and security no longer seem fit for purpose. Into this space comes the annual Munich Security Forum. Its flagship event, which took place last weekend, is its gathering of hundreds of the world’s top security experts and decision makers in Munich each year, to debate – and hopefully come up with solutions for - the world’s most pressing security concerns.     Last year, despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, the conference took place in relatively optimistic circumstances: the Ukrainians were putting up a plucky defence, while the euro-atlantic alliance seemed to have found new purpose. This year is a different story. Russia has just taken the city of Avdiivka, while international support for Ukraine is wavering. And on the very opening day of the conference, the shocking news broke that Russia’s most prominent opposition politician, Alexei Navalny, had died in prison.     So what was the mood like at this year’s conference, and how should the euro-atlantic community respond to these challenges? To answer those questions, Alex Hall Hall was joined by Nico Lange – a senior fellow at the Munich Security Conference and a former Chief of Staff at the German Ministry of Defence. In this episode the pair discuss: what were the main takeaways from the conference, the need for European powers to step up their aid to Ukraine, and why expanding the EU and NATO is vital for international security.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Read Nico Lange’s article ‘In a critical situation for Ukraine, it is down to the Europeans’ here   And for an overview of many issues relating to Navalny’s death and Western and Russian politicians reactions to it here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

22 Feb 202443min

In late January 2024, New Hampshire residents received a strange phone call. The voice of Joe Biden was telling them not to vote in the Democratic Primaries.  But it wasn’t actually the President on the line… It was a deep faked robot. This was part of an unlawful attempt to disrupt the New Hampshire Presidential Primary Election. That disinformation campaign was created by easily accessible technology. Over the next months, more sophisticated attempts are almost bound to emerge seeking to disrupt the November US Presidential Elections… so what can be done to prevent AI-empowered voter suppression and help protect democracy against these very real threats?    To find out, Alex Hall Hall speaks to Miles Taylor. Miles was the Chief of Staff in the Department of Homeland Security under the Trump Administration. It was later revealed that he was the author of the famous ‘Anonymous’ essay in the New York Times entitled, ‘I am part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration’. He most recently wrote an NYT bestseller ‘Blowback’. Taylor is now the co-founder of the US Futures Policy Studio in Washington; an organisation which is looking to help policymakers better understand deep fake technology. In his discussion with Alex, he talks about his reasons for leaving the Trump Administration; the unbridled vengeance he faced as a consequence of speaking out against a Neo-Populist; and his current work bringing attention to one of the most profound threats currently facing democracies: Artificial Intelligence.    To close the show, Jason and Alex ‘Order the Disorder’ by discussing the need for fast-moving regulation around AI, why a lengthening of ‘power distance’ in American society is an indication that our democratic institutions and culture aren’t work properly anymore, and why a public information campaign ridiculing AI deep fakes could help to prepare society for these disruptive technologies.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Read the famous ‘Anonymous’ essay in the NYT here   Read why Miles unmasked himself here   Read Alex’s article ‘Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Dilemma of a Conflicted Civil Servant’ in the Texas National Security Review here   Get Blowback: A Warning to Save Democracy from the Next Trump here   Read ‘Fake Biden robocall telling Democrats not to vote is likely an AI-generated deepfake’ here   For a range of academic and conceptual work on the concept of ‘Power Distance’, consult here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

20 Feb 202453min

As Alex turns 60, she and Jason  look back at how the world has changed since she first decided to enter the diplomatic service. Meanwhile, Jason explains how his ‘lived experiences’ across the Middle East have shaped the way he views American foreign policy. The Boomer vs Gen X dynamics are laid bared for all to see. Then the duo answer listener questions: namely, what UK/US support for Israel should look like, why some countries are less corrupt than others and what role Western powers should play in post-conflict zones. Finally, as they Order the Disorder, Alex and Jason talk about the need to be courageous in trying to bring interim governance to post-War Gaza, and the importance of maintaining moral clarity.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack here    Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

15 Feb 202452min