Housing Crash 2.0, The Rebalancing Act, A North-South Silk Road

For decades now, Germany has stood as the doughty centurion at the gates of European civilisation. A nation of recyclers, engineers, and a super-sensible, hyper-dull political class. But since 2022, German exceptionalism has taken a helluva beating. The country has been haemorrhaging its manufacturing base, and with it, the social consensus that lasted more than thirty years is beginning to unwind. What are the long roots of this crisis? This week, The Lads are joined by Philipp Mattheis to discuss Germany's downward spiral. And its future. Today, the trains literally do not run on time. So with the rise of the AfD, will the country soon hire a leader who can make those trains run on time? *** Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter. https://www.x.com/multipolarpodOn Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/multipolarityOr on our own Substack. https://substack.com/@multipolaritypod

26 Sep 20241h 4min

There’s a changing of the guard at NATO. Down comes the regimental banner of Jens Stoltenberg. Eyes right, salute, the former Dutch PM Mark Rutte. Some say the Treaty Organisation has never been more relevant. But is that a bit like the man who jumps from the 23rd floor still looking very well as he passes the 3rd floor? Meanwhile, a new OBR forecast accuses pensioners of placing too much burden on the British treasury - tripling the national debt by mid-century. At the same time, The Labour government is fast-tracking euthanasia through parliament. Is Killer Keir’s latest economic strategy just The Day of the Pillow? Finally, there hasn’t been a Trump assassination attempt in at least forty eight hours. Unless there has by now - in which case please ignore this message. What does the never-ending conga line of would-be nation-destabilisers say about the health of the US polity?*** Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter. https://www.x.com/multipolarpodOn Patreon. www.patreon.com/multipolarity Or on our own Substack. https://substack.com/@multipolaritypod

19 Sep 20241h

Touted in Eurocrat circles as a document that can square the circles and circle the wagons. Praised to the hilt by the Commission, hotly anticipated by industry, to some this is Europe's last best attempt to recant and repent before it is zapped by Asian competition and the ongoing energy drought. This week, we've cleared the decks to rake over the Mario Draghi report into European competitiveness. Can this arch-insider come up with the special sauce that sets the VW plants humming? Can he weave a "European Google" out of thin air? Or how about just a European Temu? 400 pages and 170 proposals later, The Lads have their answer...*** Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter. https://www.x.com/multipolarpodOn Patreon. www.patreon.com/multipolarity Or on our own Substack. https://substack.com/@multipolaritypod

12 Sep 20241h

As Pavel Durov remains in French hands, we’re wondering whether Europe can finally develop its own Silicon Valley simply by mass detention of top entrepreneurial talent.Or whether perhaps this is the desperate last whelp of a society increasingly bypassed by the global tech economy. Meanwhile, in Germany, the story of the day is that the AfD have taken a great swath of Thuringia and Saxony, while Sara Wagenknecht has gobbled the rest. This is democracy in action – so can it be stopped? At the same time, the EU is redefining its central budget. For member states, that 1.2 trillion annual pocket money is no longer free - it will be conditional on economic reforms. We’re about to find out what exactly Slovenia is prepared to do for its slice. Better yet, what will Hungary do?Finally, as Turkey applies to be the latest BRIC, we’re wondering: is this the point when it’s quicker to build a new acronym from states who aren’t in the club?As you may have noticed, this week is an extended, four-story gutbuster of an episode. That’s because it’s Premium Week – and we believe in giving our Patreons a little extra on the side. And round the back.If you want to join the club, you too can sign up on Patreon to listen to the full version - it's 5 Pounds, Euros or Dollars a month. Cancel any time. Simply go to https://www.Patreon.com/multipolarity.

5 Sep 202415min

Thomas Fazi has been watching the EU implode for over a decade. He's widely known as a contributor to UnHerd and Compact, and for his 2014 book: Battle For Europe: How An Elite Hijacked A Continent. His work on the corruption of European institutions stretches back to the 2011 Sovereign Debt Crisis. Multipolarity has been consistently arguing that the jesses of central bank policy are being used as political levers to keep the EU's wayward member states together - in contravention of both the letter and the spirit of its treaties. Fazi has been another voice, consistently been making a similar critique, but from a Marxist perspective. This week, the lads invite him on, to compare notes. You can find Thomas' popular Substack here: https://substack.com/@tfazi***Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter. https://www.x.com/multipolarpodOn Patreon. www.patreon.com/multipolarity Or on our own Substack. https://substack.com/@multipolaritypod

29 Aug 202441min

As Ukraine punches into Kursk, and the world asks whether this is this more Kaiserschlacht, or more Ardennes Offensive, cooler heads are focused on the bigger picture. Word is Kamala Harris is going to sack Jake Sullivan. Given that Trump would have sacked him anyway, we’re now into a world where the pro-Ukraine top team is, fait accompli, gone. Which means the US pivot to Asia is increasingly nailed on. Meanwhile, two years after Joe Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act, it turns out the thick end of four trillion dollars buys you a huge boom in the construction of factories – but not much by way of a green economy. As new research shows many of the pop-up LLCs the IRA spawned are popping into Chapter 12, we’re sifting through the debris, looking for recycling. Finally, Azerbaijan is the latest BRIC in the BRICS. After their short and decisive war with Armenia, this rising former western ally is now binding itself to Russia. In the global carve-up bigger picture, should we really keep on getting Armenia in the divorce? *** Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter. https://www.x.com/multipolarpodOn Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/multipolarity Or on our Substack. https://substack.com/@multipolaritypod

22 Aug 202451min

Kamala Harris is ahead in six key swing states - according to several major polls. All of which are categorically wrong. Could the ghost of the Shy Trumper be about to smite the Dems for the third election running? And why are the usual media suspects pretending it isn’t a thing, never has been, never could be? Meanwhile, in Malaysia and Indonesia, a new domino theory is starting to stack up. In the world of friendshoring and belt-and-road, the Pacific rim was always going to be the key prize - and China is gaining the upper hand. Finally, Twitter-X is being pitched into a classic royale — between the mobile forces of capital and the fixed forces of national politics. Not content with fighting a flame war against Keir Starmer, Elon Musk now being set upon by Thierry Breton - Europe’s information commissioner. Which is like being savaged by not one dead sheep, but two. In the most mobile industry in the world, thirty years of globalisation theory suggests there can be only one winner. One look at Musk’s meme game says he could still flub it. *** Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter. https://www.x.com/multipolarpodOn Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/multipolarity Or on our Substack. https://substack.com/@multipolaritypod

15 Aug 202453min

The bears are coming. As Japan posts the biggest one day stock market losses since Black Monday, we’re asking whether this dip is a passing blip – or the big ka-blam? Meanwhile, Argentina’s reserves include almost two million ounces of gold, valued at $4.5 billion. But lately, there’s a question that’s on everybody’s lips: where is it? The gold seems to have been transferred out of the country. But why, no one can say. Is this some sublime economic master-stroke from the wacky professor Milei? Or just the equivalent of a desperate gambler taking his wife’s gold rings up to the pawn shop? Finally, in a subscriber-only super-section, we’ll be covering the British race riots. The events of the past few days have shaken the British establishment to its core. With no clear narrative, and an increasingly balkanised society, the country’s leaders now seem clueless and visibly scared, as they face down the fruits of eighty years of immigration policy failure.For our Patrons, we’ll be taking the long view - tracing the history of British immigration; then extending into the far future - looking at the demographic realities of the UK from here on out. And, of course, we’ll be hashing through the story of the day. What can an already wobbling Starmer regime do in the face of the tectonic forces being unleashed? Be warned, this one’s a black pill so big it might be a black suppository. But to listen, you’ll need to be signed up to our Patreon. Just go to Patreon.com, search Multipolarity, and pay 5 dollars, pounds or euros a month. You can cancel any time. *** Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter. https://www.x.com/multipolarpodOn Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/multipolarity Or on our Substack. https://substack.com/@multipolaritypod

8 Aug 202448min