Braver Angels "Road Trip Across a Divided America": Joseph Sim

Ever since the 2008 financial crisis and recession, central bankers and most economists have agreed that it's good to keep interest rates as low as possible. Making it easy to borrow money very cheaply helps the economy recover from recessions and the COVID pandemic.But what if very cheap money has unintended consequences such as asset bubbles and bank failures, and benefits the haves much more than the have-nots of society?Our guest is financial analyst, journalist, and historian Edward Chancellor, author of the new book, "The Price of Time, The Real Story of Interest". Edward specializes in financial crises— bubbles, crashes and panics. He uses examples from history to challenge conventional wisdom about near-zero interest rates, and walks though his arguments in a relatable way."If you reduce the cost of borrowing, you will increase the amount of debt," Edward tells us. "Is it socially just to get large numbers of people into debt that they can't pay, to get them to buy cars they can't afford?"The idea of charging interest on loans has been around as long as civilization. In ancient Mesopotamia they invented interest before humans learned how to put wheels on carts. Yet throughout history interest or usury has been considered immoral by religious leaders and even philosophers. Edward Chancellor offers a robust defense of the need for interest rates. "Interest is the difference in value of something over time," he explains. "You could say it's the exchange rate between the present and the future."We recorded this episode at the headquarters of The Manhattan Institute in New York. Thank you to Brianna Mangat for recording our conversation and to everyone who made this podcast possible.Recommendation: Jim is a frequent listener to The Glenn Show, a podcast about race, inequality and economics in the US and throughout the world with Professor Glenn Loury. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

16 Juni 202331min

"America is rigidly divided between red and blue." That's what we're constantly being told by pundits, politicians and media outlets, both left and right.But what if that wasn't quite true?On a surprisingly large number of issues, Americans agree on the broad outlines of public policy. Author, conflict mediator, and social entrepreneur, Bill Shireman makes the case that the middle 70% of the public should have a much greater say in who gets elected to make laws and decide policy."All it takes is a small number of folks who are aware of how we're being gamed to build a bridge between the political left and right, Bill says. "We need a relatively small percentage of voters who will not divide the way we are triggered to divide," Bill argues that the media and political industry make money and gain power by dividing Americans and making us mad at the other side."The middle 70%" does not necessarily mean moderates. Bill calls them "the silenced majority of us who are common-sense, reality-based voters who can work out our differences." Some are conservatives or progressives, while others have a mix of opinions on social and economic issues. The House of Representatives vote for the debt ceiling bill is an example of what Bill is talking about. Despite furious denunciations by legislators on the progressive left and Freedom Caucus right, the compromise bill passed by an overwhelming margin. President Biden and House Republican leaders quietly worked together. More about Bill Shireman: Host of the podcast series "A Moment of BS Bill Shireman Disrupts the Dividers". President of Future 500, where he invites Greenpeace, ExxonMobil, Rainforest Action Network, Mitsubishi and other corporate and environmental leaders to work together.Bill co-chairs the Donor Roundtable and its citizen recruitment initiative, In This Together.He's the author of seven books. The most recent is "In This Together: How Republicans, Democrats, Capitalists and Activists are Uniting to Tackle Climate Change and More.Bill teaches leadership and negotiations at the Berkeley Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley.Recommendation: Richard listened to and was moved by the documentary podcast series "The Witch Trials of JK Rowling", hosted by Megan Phelps-Roper. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

2 Juni 202328min

Generative Artificial Intelligence has the power to transform lives and change our jobs. In this episode, we discuss the potential for good and bad from large, creative AI models such as ChatGPT.Our guest is Nathanael Fast, who serves as Director of the Neely Center for Ethical Leadership and Decision Making and Co-Director of the Psychology of Technology Institute. Professor Fast teaches in the MBA, Ph.D., and Executive Education programs at USC Marshall in Los Angeles.ChatGPT reached over 100 million active users within two months of its release. Consumers have used it to write essays, take tests, crack jokes and write poetry in response to questions or prompts. We raise the questions we need to ask about rapidly changing forms of artificial intelligence. Should we be scared or excited… or both?With calls for new regulation, even from the industry itself, policy makers and the public need to gain a fuller understanding of the AI revolution. This episode introduces listeners to the meaning of large language models and generative AI.Nate Fast argues that if we want to understand and improve the future, we’ll need to focus on the adoption of technology and how AI, social media and other platforms shape human psychology. Recommendation: Jim has been listening “The Spear”, from The Modern War Institute at West Point. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

18 Maj 202329min

The Coronation of King Charles III promises to be very big on pomp and circumstance, but it may also play a leading role in healing divisions between post-Brexit Britain and the European Union. Leading EU officials will be in attendance at Westminster Abbey.This podcast shares a personal perspective on some of the momentous changes in the UK over recent years, and includes comparisons between the hot topics on both sides of The Atlantic. Our co-host Richard last lived in London in the 1970's and 80's. During late March and April he returned, spending a month there.Richard tells us that forty years ago London was "darker, smellier, poorer, louder and less orderly than the great city of today." He shares examples that illustrate this shift, as well as discussing the great impact of Brexit on the UK economy and politics. Jim and Richard examine the special relationship between the US and UK plus similarities and differences in debates over cancel culture, populism, immigration and abortion.The 2016 Brexit vote that led to the UK's withdrawal from the EU has not been the disaster that many had forecast. But the British economy is losing ground compared to other leading nations of Europe. Growth is flat and a small recession is forecast for later this year. Compare this with Ireland— still inside the EU— where the economy has been growing at more than twice the European average. The Irish growth rate may be as high as 8% this year.Recommendations: Refreshed after his recent trip, Richard urges listeners, if possible, to head overseas for at least a week or two. Travel is not only a tonic for the soul, but also broadens our political and cultural perspectives. During his trip, Richard read two fine books about the world-class city: "London: A Short History", a short, fluid and lively account by E.N. Wilson, and the much longer "London: The Biography", by Peter Ackroyd. Both give the reader a rich sense of London's very long and layered story.Anti-recommendation: Jim urges listeners to be very skeptical about the accuracy of ChatGPT, the artificial intelligence chatbot. While researching an article for The Manhattan Institute recently, Jim came across potentially alarming examples of made-up quotes and magazine articles that were cited but never actually written. Jim discusses the crucial differences between search engines and new forms of AI. This article in The New York Times looks at how ChatGPT can fabricate information. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

4 Maj 202328min

The news media and journalists themselves are faced with a crisis of confidence and trust. The internet broke the old business model of locally-based newspaper reporting and replaced it with national opinion journalism written by and for well-educated metropolitan elites. Our guest is Nikki Usher, Associate Professor at the University of San Diego, who studies journalism, politics, tech, and power. Nikki's recent book is "News For The Rich, White and Blue: How Place and Power Distort American Journalism".In our conversation we look at the loss of place in American journalism, the gap between "news haves and have-nots", and how technology can be used to challenge old journalistic models and lead to new ways of delivering news to audiences that have been poorly served in the past.For decades the polling firm Gallup has been asking Americans: "How much confidence and trust do you have in the news media?" In the 1970's more than two-thirds of the public said they had a great deal or a fair amount of confidence. Today, the proportion is down to one-third. Most Americans distrust what they read, see, or hear from news outlets. A minuscule 7% of Americans have "a great deal" of trust and confidence in the media.We ask how do we fix it? and how journalists can gain a better understanding of why so many readers, viewers, and listeners believe that they tell lies or simply don't care about the truth.In this episode, we hear about efforts by The Los Angeles Times and Philadelphia Inquirer to reassess their roles in the community. We also learn about growing non-profit regional news organizations such as The Voice of San Diego and the Connecticut Mirror. Jim and Richard also discuss the work of the online platform Substack. Recommendation: Richard enjoys listening to the podcast series, "Rumble Strip", produced and hosted by Erica Heilman. This extraordinary show was profiled in The New Yorker and won a 2021 Peabody Award for the episode, "Finn and The Bell". Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

20 Apr 202327min

In much of the country local news has collapsed, threatening civic pride and a sense of community for countless towns and cities. This dramatic change has also deepened America's divides.As our guest, journalist and public policy researcher Anna Brugmann explains in this episode, "the internet disrupted the local journalism model". Newspaper advertising revenue fell 80% since 2000. Thousands of local and regional publications closed. Most surviving newsrooms faced drastic cutbacks. Coverage of all kinds of local events— from city hall, school board meetings and football games to local businesses and zoning decisions — disappeared.First, Craigslist displaced print-based classified ads. Then Google, Facebook and other online firms became the main source of consumer advertising. We discuss the impact on local journalism. In recent decades, the news we read and listen to has largely shifted from local reporting to often highly polarizing national opinion journalism.In the first of two episodes on the changing face of the news media, we look at the retreat of local journalism and discuss solutions. These include non-profit media and changes in for-profit business models. Today, many newspapers get more revenue from subscriptions and fundraising drives than from advertising. We ask: how sustainable are these initiatives?Anna Brugmann is policy director for the advocacy organization, Rebuild Local News. According to her group, since 2004, as the U.S. population has grown, the number of newsroom employees has dropped by 57%."By almost every metric by which you measure a healthy community and a healthy democracy, the trends are in the wrong direction when local news leaves," says Anna. "In the past twenty years more than two thousands newspapers have closed in The United States."Recommendation: Jim is listening to a lot of podcasts since he unplugged his TV and stopped watching broadcast and cable news. Among his current favorite podcasts is "The Reeducation With Eli Lake". The show "challenges the common narratives the mainstream media and others push". Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

6 Apr 202327min

Rising interest rates and the end of easy money were two factors in the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and a subsequent stock market run on shares of regional banks. Questions were raised about the safety of the entire U.S. banking industry. We examine risk in banking, investing and the broader economy.Federal regulators faced harsh criticism for the latest bank failures. Progressives blamed politicians who eased regulations on medium-sized and small banks. Some on the right claimed that DEI — Diversity, Equity and Inclusion — distracted SVB from focusing on risk management. Our guest is economist and risk expert Allison Schrager, author of "An Economist Walks Into a Brothel: And Other Unexpected Places to Understand Risk". She also writes frequently for Bloomberg Opinion and City Journal. This episode looks at the causes of the recent bank panic and the current outlook for the financial industry."Safety is the foundation of finance and it is also how we price risk," Allison tells us in this episode. Everyone assumes that holding government-backed securities is safe. "But long-duration bonds are very sensitive to changes in bond yields." If interest rates go up, "bond prices on long-dated securities go down a lot." SVB was heavily invested in these securities. But many of its depositors, including tech firms and venture capitalists, were highly sensitive to rate rises. In mid-March, despite reassurances from top executives, SVB's depositors pulled their money out. It was a sudden online version of an old-fashioned bank run.We look at potential solutions and hazards for investors and the economy, including the perils of inflation, the dangers of groupthink, why investors and bank executives should feel some pain when an institution fails, and the need for risk management that takes a broad range of economic possibilities into account. Allison recently wrote this about why Silicon Valley is facing rising threats to its business model. The latest column for Bloomberg cautions savers and investors: don't make the same mistake as SVB with your 401k.Recommendation: Richard plays this word game almost every day: Spelling Bee, a somewhat addictive game from The New York Times. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

23 Mars 202330min

The people of Ukraine are facing down a military giant. Their unity and bravery in the bloody, cruel year since the Russia invasion are an inspiration to the rest of the world.Instead of talking about politics or the state of the war, we consider the battlefield of ideas. Above all this show is an attempt to put the war into context: What’s at stake for Western democracy, and what space does Ukraine fit in our history? We speak again with Marci Shore, professor of European cultural & intellectual history at Yale University. She first appeared on "How Do We Fix It?" a year ago. In 2018 she received a Guggenheim Fellowship for her current book project, a history of phenomenology in East-Central Europe, tentatively titled “Eyeglasses Floating in Space: Central European Encounters That Came about While Searching for Truth.” Her most recent book is “The Ukrainian Night: An Intimate History of Revolution”. This show is a companion piece to episode #380 with Jacob Mchangama.We hear a very thoughtful, passionate account of the war. "These are my friends and colleagues who are being slaughtered," Marci Shore tell us."That is first and foremost why the war is so personal for me." She describes the war as "the decisive end of what Francis Fukuyama had called the end of history."Marci is Jewish, and a well-known scholar of Eastern Europe in the post-Soviet era. As a young child she listened to elderly relatives who had once been victims of Tsarist pogroms— riots aimed at expelling and killing Jews and other members of ethnic or religious groups in a region that includes present-day Ukraine. She tells us why "Ukraine has emerged as a subject and not an object in world consciousness."In this episode we also discuss the work of The Reckoning Project— a coalition of human rights activists, journalists and archivists who are using the power of story-telling and legal accountability to document truth. The project has uncovered evidence and is conducting first-person interviews about Russian abuses and cruelty in occupied parts of Ukraine. Recommendation: Jim is looking at the extraordinary work of photojournalist Lynsey Addario and others who risk their lives to capture vital moments during the wars. Her work photos have been published by The New York Times. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

9 Mars 202331min