Revisiting The Limits Of Growth - A Global Forecast For The Next Forty Years

Jorgen Randers, Professor of Climate Strategy from the BI Norwegian Business School, is one of the world's most respected and rigorous global systems experts. Forty years ago he co-authored the best-selling environmental book of all time -- The Club of Rome's 1972 Limits to Growth, which set out different scenarios, including ones of overshooting and collapse, out to 2100.

Now, 40 years later, Randers asks the question: What will the world look like in another 40 years? His answer is in his new book, 2052 - A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years. His forecasts contain good news and bad. We will see impressive advances in resource efficiency, and an increasing focus on human well-being rather than on per capita income growth. But this change might not come as we expect. Future growth in population and GDP, for instance, will be constrained in surprising ways by rapid fertility decline as result of increased urbanisation, productivity decline as a result of social unrest, and continuing global poverty. The current dominant global economies, particularly the United States, will stagnate, but emerging economies will do well. Runaway global warming is likely.

Following the presentation by Professor Jorgen Randers, Paul Gilding will offer his perspectives. Paul Gilding recently authored The Great Disruption, and also serves on the global faculty of the University of Cambridge's Program for Sustainability Leadership (CPSL). He argues that the world will embark on an emergency response to prevent environmental catastrophe. A member of Crawford School of Public Policy will also provide comments.

This event is presented by the Development Policy Centre at the Crawford School of Public Policy in partnership with Australia 21 and the Purves Environmental Fund.

Presentation slides are available from the Devpolicy events page: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/devpolicy/events

Devpolicy Talks is the podcast of the Australian National University's Development Policy Centre.

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