Born in the USAID, Deep Deep Trouble, Customs of the Natives

A diplomatic incident in Latin America has somehow become the focal point for an ever-expanding range of stories - from the Venezuelan elections, to US energy policy to Ecuadorian banana exports to Russia. Leading even coolheaded observers to ponder the question: are we approaching the Latin American embassy incident singularity? Meanwhile, there are always good tariffs and bad tariffs - and in announcing his new shipbuilding policies, this week Joe Biden’s giving us both a plate of cheese and a plate of chalk.Finally, Arch-Eurocrat Mario Draghi has made a big speech about European competitiveness. Its 20 years of failure - and its hope for the future. Is this the first sign of a continent about to flex its soon to be enviable muscles? Or is it the first twitchings of an arthritic bodybuilder about to pop a hernia?

18 Apr 202454min

Little Rocket Man has a new toy.This month, Kim Jong Un unveiled a Bond-villain-like missile with an extending tip.On that tip was what looks to be a hypersonic glide vehicle. A hypersonic glide vehicle is the real deal. They're extremely fast. They can manoeuvre at those high speeds. And we don’t yet know if it’s possible to shoot them down. On paper, this means that North Korea has more advanced potentially-nuclear missiles than the West. On paper, this is bad news. But the story gets worse.It was almost certainly given to them by the Chinese or the Russians. Why?Could North Korea be the vehicle to do for the East China Sea what the Houthis have done for the Red Sea? Undermining US power, and leaving America’s regional allies - in this case Japan and South Korea - scrambling for new, more multipolar patterns of allegiances. Malcom Kyeyune is a columnist for Compact Magazine, a regular writer UnHerd, an expert on modern warfare, and a friend of the show. In this week’s Special Episode, he’ll be laying out a broad range of potential futures for the region. ***Be excellent to each other, and - Get us on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/multipolarpodOn Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/multipolarityOr on our Substack: https://substack.com/@multipolaritypod

11 Apr 202453min

The Atlanticists versus the Autonomists - the European civil war coming soon to a bureaucracy near you. It’s long been a theme of this show that the continent is being slowly capsized by its long term problems, related to energy and productivity. We’ll be picking through three news items that tell the short term story of the continent’s woes. Terrible producer confidence numbers out of Germany, oil prices back to a fresh spike even in the teeth of an incipient recession, and Poland’s Donald Tusk softening the rhetorical ground for continental conscription. Then, we’ll be panning back.To look at the dilemma Europe now faces. That between the Atlantacists - who want to shelter under America’s aegis, but thereby have to toe the party line on geopolitics; and the autonomists - who want to break for something genuinely multipolar, gaining their energy independence, but at sea in an increasingly dangerous world. The war now spans the continent. And it cuts both ways. In Germany, the AfD and Sahra Wagenknecht are rising from either side of the political aisle, but both promising to overturn the Atlantacist geopolitical settlement. Meanwhile, as she gets closer to the French Presidency, Marine Le Pen is kowtowing to the NATO line. And Georgia Meloni’s promised populist rule has been set back onto the Atlantacists straight and narrow by the Italian presidency. With constant talk of remilitarising while the continent is broke, are we doomed to spend the next decade stuck in a world where all European citizens are compelled to pretend that our dear leaders are building an army that doesn’t actually exist? Of course, this is the Premium Week, so we’ll be prancing through this dog and pony show for free for fifteen of those 65 minutes. After that, you’re welcome to sign up on our patreon. Five dollars, pounds or Euros, cancel any time. *** PATREON LINK: https://www.patreon.com/multipolarity

4 Apr 202419min

New research from Bloomberg says that Beijing is steering the Chinese economy away from the recent real estate boom, and into high tech manufacturing. It’s a drive estimated to be worth 19% of GDP by 2026. Running the numbers, not only is China Collapse Theory once again proved false, the market may even have under-priced how much gas there still is in the tank. Meanwhile, the Francis Scott Key Bridge has collapsed, effectively blockading Baltimore Port for a long time to come. The 80 billion dollars in cargo and 140 000 jobs tied to it is bad enough. But the blow to US pride might turn out to be worse. Across the country, infrastructure is crumbling; while replacing it is becoming ever-more expensive.Finally, as the US Fed debt pile moves towards 100 per cent of GDP, warnings are being sounded about an American Liz Truss Moment. Trussification has become a byword for politicians being strung up by the bond markets. The only questions outstanding are: who exactly is the Truss who is about to be strung up? And who is organising the stringing? *** Be excellent to each other and follow us on Patreon.

28 Mars 202449min

This is a special edition of Multipolarity on The Economic Consequences Of The War. In 1919, JM Keynes wrote The Economic Consequences of the Peace. Predicting the death of the old world order after Europe’s first unsuccessful attempt at suicide. We aren’t yet at peace, but the economic consequences of the present war in the middle of Europe are starting to come into view. Consequences for NATO as a new study shows that in order to meet their target of 2% of GDP, European Nato members will need to increase spending by €56 billion every year. For sanctions policy as Azerbaijan records a 2000 % spike in car sales from Britain. And for industry in The Coming Multipolar Age, as Chinese production leaves Western Production for dust. This week: we’re going to be moving through each in turn, to build up a composite picture of what tomorrow will look like, whatever the exact outcome of the Ukraine War. ** Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other.TwitterPatreon

21 Mars 20241h 16min

NVIDIA has become a stock market behemoth on the back of their AI-friendly graphics chips. Last week saw them hit a $2.19 trillion market capitalisation. So are they the future of the globe’s most info-critical resource - or a sign that we’re entering the Pets.com era of the AI age?Meanwhile, after months of delays and diplomatic blocking operations, Sweden and Finland are officially in NATO. But with past and future president Trump signalling that he will be less than interested in European defence, are they arriving at a party just as the lights go up? Finally, British equities used to be 9 per cent of the global equity market. New data confirms they’re now 3 per cent. And the trend line is south. As the City’s long term future gently slides out of view, Britain is going to need a new basket for all of its eggs...*** Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other.TwitterPatreon

14 Mars 202454min

Does the housing market obey the laws of supply and demand? We say no. Join us for a controversial, possibly mind-blowing journey into the heart of darkness, into an upside-down-world that set Twitter on fire this week. Victoria Nuland has fallen on her sword. Or someone else’s sword. Whatever happened to America’s third-ranking diplomat, suddenly retiring at 62 while her President hobbles on at 80, it does seem there are suddenly a lot of swords about. Does the fall of notoriously Russia-averse Nuland clear the way for a Biden 180 on Ukraine? Finally, when Rishi Sunak put the crested podium out front of Downing Street last Friday night, for an emergency announcement, it felt more like a hostage situation - like the British political class begging for its life. The Gaza War has ripped up the story Britain once told itself about its multiculture. But still no one can quite say it. How will the country survive its political class being rendered altogether speechless? *** This is a premium edition, for the Patreon frens. For another 25 minutes on the YIMBY Question, plus Nuland and Galloway, please consider signing up. It's £5, $5 or €5 a month, and you can cancel any time. You'll also be given lifetime access to our extensive archive of previous paywall shows. The link is here: https://www.patreon.com/multipolarity

7 Mars 202415min

"Hamburgers will decide America's future". So says Malcolm Kyeyune in a recent essay ruminating on the American journalist Tucker Carlson's recent visit to Moscow where he famously - or, perhaps, infamously - purchased a burger at Russia's new McDonald's clone, 'Tasty, that's it'. Kyeyune sees Carlson's culinary adventure as reminiscent of Mikhail Gorbachev's decision to do an advert in which Russians would debate whether the fall of the Evil Empire was worth the introduction of fast food chains. Now the shoe is on the other foot, with Carlson highlighting how cheap food is in Russia in comparison to the United States, plagued, as is the rest of the West, with a cost of living crisis.But this latest fast food fight is really only the tip of the iceberg lettuce. Since the pandemic of 2020, a feeling of malaise has crept into the West. The feeling is palpable and encompasses everything from rising costs of basic necessities to a feeling that the culture is spiralling out of control to a questioning of our basic modus operandi - what happened, some ask, to our freedoms?In this week's episode we want to discuss whether the West is spiralling into chaos? It feels like a lot of narratives are breaking down right now, and one crisis seems to open onto another like a Matryoshka doll. With a highly controversial election on the horizon in November and the Biden Administration having failed to deliver on its promise of normality, is our ideological Berlin Wall starting to crumble?*** Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other.TwitterPatreon

29 Feb 20241h 11min