European Stocks Rally, U.S. Tax Cuts & Germany’s Confidence Drop: PALvatar Market Recap - February 26, 2025

“This is risk-off behavior returning,” tweeted Michael Gayed less than an hour into today’s trading session, which, two hours ahead of the close, has seen the Dow Jones Industrial Average decline 2.9%, the S&P 500 shed 3.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite nosedive 4.0%. Investors are digesting a second disappointing earnings report from a major U.S. retailer, as Target followed Walmart with more data indicating inflation is, finally, having an impact on U.S. consumer behavior. Gayed, CIO and portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how inflation will turn into deflation and why equity indexes are looking at another major leg down. With risk assets highly correlated at present, this is an ominous sign for the cryptocurrency market as well. That’s a major topic of discussion in the debut episode of Real Vision’s Crypto Unwrapped series. We also hear from Jeff Moore about the Federal Reserve being late and bond market volatility. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/381fvoA. Watch the full interview featuring Jeff Moore and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3McSPAj. Watch the first Crypto Unwrapped episode featuring Weston Nakamura, Nicolas Brugge, and Leslie Lamb here: https://rvtv.io/3lkyrS6. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

19 Maj 202242min

Neither pandemic nor war can keep down the American consumer, even as persistent inflation and supply-chain breakdowns continue to vex economists, policymakers, and financial media talking-heads. U.S. retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in April, and the figure for March was revised upward to 1.4% from 0.5%, data that reflect resilient demand. At the same time, industrial production was up a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in April, beating a consensus forecast of 0.5% and accelerating from 0.9% in March. U.S. equity indexes rallied on the solid economic data. But Vincent Deluard, Global Macro Strategist at StoneX, has concerns. Though he thinks we’ve reached peak inflation, he warns we could be stuck at a higher plateau for longer. “The CPI is caught in a tug-of-war between the cyclical basket, which is driven by energy, re-opening sectors, and supply chains, and the structural basket, which is driven by shelter, services, and wages. Due to base effects, cyclical dis-inflation should outweigh structural reflation until the end of the year.” Deluard joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the “transitory narrative” and how investors can and should position for the persistence of secular inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Mrt13y. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

18 Maj 202241min

U.S. equity indexes ground generally higher through the trading session Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 breaking into the green but the Nasdaq Composite struggling in negative territory. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note slipped by six basis points to 2.88%, as bonds caught a bid on economic growth concerns. Recent data from China indicate President Xi’s “COVID Zero” policy is exerting a tremendous drag on the domestic economy, with down-the-line impacts on the global economy sure to follow, including supply-chain snarls. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Senior Chairman Lloyd Blankfein warned of a "very, very high risk" of a US recession. Eric Johnston, head of Equity Derivatives and Cross Asset for Cantor Fitzgerald, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about short-, medium-, and long-term direction for stocks, recent macro data, and earnings. We also hear from Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence, about whether the Fed has not just the policy tools but the general resolve to do what has to be done to end inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3wsV3Ff. Watch the full interview featuring Danielle DiMartino Booth and Jim Bianco here: https://rvtv.io/3MmeBlg. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

17 Maj 202237min

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital LLC, joins Harry Melandri to discuss his bullish case for precious metal mining, particularly in the exploration part of the industry. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

15 Maj 202246min

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Carson Block joins Maggie Lake to discuss how he went from feeling like an outsider to being an insider in the finance community. Carson explains how writing one report unveiling fraudulent activity at a publicly-traded Chinese company led to the creation of Muddy Waters Research and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Maj 202248min

Markets rebounded sharply Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its first positive trading session after six consecutive down days. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said engineering a soft landing would involve “some pain,” as the central bank remains on track for 50-basis-point rate hikes in June and July. U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest in more than a decade, as April data from the University of Michigan survey showed a drop from 65.2 to 59.1. The average per-gallon price of gasoline hit a new high and continues to weigh on the minds of Americans. And the geopolitical situation promises more constraints on key energy and food supplies. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss the energy market’s impact on the broader market. We also hear from Alex Gurevich, who says there’s a 0% chance of a soft landing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3NfvoGC. Watch the full interview featuring Alex Gurevich and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3w9TH38. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Maj 202238min

Keeping with the prevailing theme, the U.S producer price index for April came in at a red-hot, consensus-forecast-beating year-over-year reading of 11%, yet another indication that inflation persists. Reflecting the impact of the Federal Reserve’s late hawkishness, if not its recent rate hikes, U.S. mortgage rates jumped again this week to 5.3%, the highest since July 2009. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note slipped below 2.9% on flight-to-safety buying. Nevertheless, as Imran Lakha notes, “The move in bond yields has been wild this year. The total return in bonds hasn’t been this bad in decades.” Lakha, the founder of Options Insight, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to discuss how tighter monetary policy is impacting financial markets. Meanwhile, with developments in the cryptocurrency market putting the word “contagion” back in circulation, Raoul Pal drops in for a flash update about recent price action across asset classes. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3l2Tk3Y Watch the full Macro Insider Flash Update here: https://rvtv.io/3M4bwpX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

13 Maj 202238min

The consumer price index for April came in at 0.3% on a month-over-month basis and 8.3% year over year, exceeding estimates on both measures and establishing once again that inflation is going to stick around at elevated levels for the foreseeable future. After opening to the upside, the major U.S. equity indexes surrendered gains and slid into the close. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note crossed above 3% early in the day before settling at 2.91%. Investors continue to grapple with the prospect of the Federal Reserve aggressively hiking borrowing costs into what looks more and more like a slowing global economy. Existing supply-chain constraints will only be exacerbated by lockdowns in China, and the U.S. consumer can only carry things so far. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to discuss how markets are digesting changes in central bank policy and where this re-pricing may take us. Real Vision Crypto Editor Ash Bennington drops in to shed some light on TerraUSD losing its peg to the U.S. dollar, and we hear from Gene Munster about tech bright prospects in 2023. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3L3sSC8 Watch the full interview with Gene Munster and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3l2GgeZ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

12 Maj 202238min