Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

I’ve often heard that good investors are a bit like journalists: doggedly collecting evidence and building an understanding of how all the pieces of a company or investment fit together. My guest this week is one of my favorite writers and journalists, Bethany McLean. Across her career, Bethany has covered many of the most interesting stories in business and investing, including Enron (which became the famous book and documentary, the Smartest Guys in the Room), Valeant, Wells Fargo, SAC Capital, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the great financial crisis, and most recently, fracking and the energy revolution. Given how deeply she has investigated all of these topics-- and thought about the common threads across them all--this was an amazing conversation. When talking to her, you can feel how much she cares and how diligent and fair she is when analyzing a topic. In addition to all of the great stories already listed, we discuss the art of persistence and other lessons she has learned about businesses and people gone bad. I especially loved her evolving take on housing in America. Please enjoy my conversation with Bethany McLean   For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Links Referenced The Hunt for Steve Cohen   Books Referenced Free Radicals: The Secret Anarchy of Science Saudi America: The Truth About Fracking and How It's Changing the World Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy All the Devils Are Here: The Hidden History of the Financial Crisis   Show Notes 2:22 - (First Question) – Differences and similarities between investors and journalists 3:19 – What has more of an impact on business practices, exposing negatives or reporting positive 4:57 – first story that got Bethany intrigued with finding bad behaviors 6:19 – The process of getting to know the people who know more than the market 7:43 – Mindsets: Optimism vs. Complacency vs. Pessimism 8:18 – First short seller that garnered her interest 8:57 – The process that led to The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron 10:36 – How to ask questions 12:18 – Importance of preparation 14:20 – Difference between a visionary and a fraud 15:42 – Free Radicals: The Secret Anarchy of Science 16:23 – Any standout frauds that told a really compelling story 17:33 – Looking into Valient 19:32 –Writing about the #MeToo movement 19:34 - Disgraced ex-BofA exec raises uncomfortable questions about #MeToo 21:49 – Thoughts on the spectrum of chasing this story 23:26 – Ways journalist can fairly impact this movement 24:14 – The romance of owning a home in America and what it has meant for the market 24:34 – Shaky Ground: The Strange Saga of the U.S. Mortgage Giants 28:27 – What has changed on her thinking about housing 30:24 – What role does Fannie and Freddie have in the market today 31:13 – Her desire to look into energy 32:26 – Saudi America: The Truth About Fracking and How It's Changing the World 35:05 – What have been the changes in energy market in the US 34:40 – Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy 37:01 – Where are we in the life cycle of energy production 38:29 – Technologies that shaped industrial revolution in America 41:10 – Why is Peter Elkin the best investigative journalist 42:24 – Most relentless she has ever been 43:58 – Who is doing it right 44:38 – All the Devils Are Here: The Hidden History of the Financial Crisis 45:36 – Her take on reporting the The Hunt for Steve Cohen story 49:01 – How her views have evolved over her career and lessons learned 50:40 – Are there ways to prevent success from leading people down a bad path 53:48 – The role of empathy in her career 55:13 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Bethany’s career

24 Juli 201859min

A very short introduction today because my guest is anonymous. Suffice it to say he manages a large pool of private capital. He goes by the pseudonym “modest proposal” and his twitter presence is one of the reasons I first got on and now stay on the platform. He is level headed, smart, and skeptical by nature, all of which made for a great conversation. We discuss how difficult the market has become for active investors, thematic investment opportunities, and the potential sources of market mispricings. Please enjoy our conversation, and let me know which other anonymous accounts you’d like to hear from. For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Links Referenced Factors from Scratch: A look back, and forward, at how, when, and why factors work Josh Wolf Podcast Episode Mike Zapata Podcast Episode Michael Mauboussin Podcast Episode   Show Notes 1:55 - (First Question) - How value investing has changed 5:45 – How does he apply the lens of market over-reaction to the current market today             5:47 – Factors from Scratch: A look back, and forward, at how, when, and why factors work             7:06 – Josh Wolf Podcast Episode 8:35 – Areas where he prepares most             8:36 – Mike Zapata Podcast Episode 12:18 – Where markets may be over reacting in media 20:10 – How does he invest on this thinking             20:44 – Michael Mauboussin Podcast Episode 22:35 – Other parts of media that he finds interesting 27:35 – Aggregation theory and how it plays into his investment philosophy 31:06 – Structuring a long-short portfolio in today’s media market 35:59 – Customer acquisition costs and how it’s impacting retailers 40:51 – The role of physical locations in a world that was upended by virtual retailers 49:41 – Consumer Internet Story thesis and what he’s seen during his career 58:11 – Why the FANG stocks can’t win in the niches 1:02:25 – The distrusted 50 1:05:00 – How he thinks about Capital Allocation and buybacks 1:11:08 – His view on international equity markets 1:13:58 – His take on the asset management business 1:19:38 – Allocation of a portfolio in between periods of conviction 1:21:08 – People that he has learned the most from 1:23:54 – How do you identify people who are capable of evolving after a rough spot 1:26:53 - How does he force himself to adapt to new conditions and evolve 1:30:31 - Thoughts in investing in cannabis industry 1:32:31 – Conditions where he would get interested in crypto currency 1:36:20 – Kindest thing anyone has done for him   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

17 Juli 20181h 40min

With Patrick out of the country this week, we thought we'd play an old favorite that many of you have not heard. Please Enjoy!     This week we explore a rare and underappreciated skill through the lens of an incredible story. My guest is Eric Maddox, whose name you probably don’t know but won’t soon forget. Just trust me that you need to listen to this entire episode, and listen carefully—because that is what the episode is ultimately all about: how to listen to others, with care and empathy, in the age of distraction. Sometimes it’s fun not to know what’s coming and be surprised, so I won’t say anymore. After the episode, you can learn more about Eric at Ericmaddox.com. On his wall, Eric has a framed Cuban cigar, he starts his story by explaining the significance of that cigar. Enjoy this episode, and try Eric’s method. It has worked wonders for me. Please enjoy!   For comprehensive show notes on this episode go to investorfieldguide.com/maddox/ For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

10 Juli 20181h

This week’s episode covers a new set of topics. The conversation, with Niel Robertson, covers media, e-sports, content distribution, marketing, and a lot more. Niel started a software company out of his bedroom when he was 14, and sold his first company in 1999 for $280 million, when he was 24 years old. He has started and sold other companies to Twitter and Cisco. He started another large business that ultimately failed. He’s been an investor, venture partner, and serial entrepreneur. You can find more in the shownotes.  As I often do, I cut the long background section from the interview so we can get right to the meat of things, but Niel concluded that section saying: “I think that could be all summed up by I just liked building things and I can't stop doing it.” In addition to the overall media landscape, we discuss the role that the biggest media platforms will play, and where other opportunities may exist. We cover digital collectibles stored on blockchain, and what type of digital assets may be leased to others. We close with a discussion of leadership, company structure, content creation, and something you should do each year. Please enjoy this unique conversation with Niel Robertson.   For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Books Referenced The Start-up of You: Adapt to the Future, Invest in Yourself, and Transform Your Career   Show Notes 2:30 - (First Question) – Overview of the media landscape as it relates to influencer marketing 6:42 – How does he think about this space as an investor 12:21 – What is the future of distribution of products 17:01 - An overview of the e-sports ecosystem 18:20 – The shift of people watching others play video games 20:06 – Will we see power shift from the platform to the influencer 27:03 – Why Amazon is the sleeper in this game 29:38 – Reviewing some of the other platforms, starting with Snapchat 30:54 – Twitter 32:06 – Other platforms that should be focused on…Pinterest 33:38 – His interest in blockchain and digital collectibles 36:34 – Who will be disrupted by digital collectibles 37:55 – Why does the decentralization of these assets matter 39:49 – The tokenization of assets 42:11 – What companies have the largest hurdles to innovate in these spaces 44:57 – His thoughts on leadership             46:44 – The Start-up of You: Adapt to the Future, Invest in Yourself, and Transform Your Career 47:52 – Advice for content creators and content aggregators 50:10 – His thoughts on companies that aggregate top content creators 53:17 – His experience owning restaurants 55:46 – His experience in motocross 57:31 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Neil   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

3 Juli 20181h 1min

My guest this week is Eric Balchunas, the senior ETF analyst for Bloomberg and the author of the Institutional ETF toolbox. This episode is intended for those in the asset or wealth management industry who have considered using ETFs in their portfolios, or for the individual investor who likes to stay up to date on trends in the market for asset management products. We cover all aspects of ETFs in some detail, and luckily in ways that have little overlap with a few other recent ETF-centric episodes on two of my favorite podcasts: the Meb Faber Show and Capital Allocators with Ted Seides with Matt Hougan and Tom Lydon respectively. We open with Eric’s favorite ETF tickers, discuss the pros and cons of ETFs versus other investment vehicles, and explore the largest areas of opportunities for new ETFs coming to market in the years to come. ETFs have become the vehicle of choice for many investors, so it was about time we covered them in depth in this forum. As you’ll hear, Eric is the right person to teach the world about ETFs, thanks to deep domain knowledge and unflagging enthusiasm. Please enjoy my conversation with Eric Balchunas on the past, present, and future of ETFs. For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag Books Referenced Quantitative Momentum: A Practitioner's Guide to Building a Momentum-Based Stock Selection System Links Referenced Chart – There Are Now More Indexes Than Stocks Show Notes 2:32 - (First Question) – Eric’s favorite ETF tickers 4:07 – How Eric got started into his career and how it led him into the ETF world 8:04 – An overview of the ETF landscape 10:10 – Active managed ETFs             12:17 – Chart – There Are Now More Indexes Than Stocks 13:32 – Key variables he thinks about when assessing a new ETF 15:18 – Evaluating shiny object ETFs 17:30 – The appeal of ETFs 20:18 – Future regulatory concern of the tax treatments of ETFs 22:10 – The liquidity advantage of ETFs and why that can actually be bad for investors 24:19 – What would Eric do to build the perfect ETF 26:03 – What are the future trends for new ETF’s launched 29:40 – Categories that work well in the ALT world of ETFs 31:32 – Most effective marketing strategy for ETFs 35:50 – Quantitative Momentum: A Practitioner's Guide to Building a Momentum-Based Stock Selection System 36:28 – How will the winning asset managers have done differently in this space 41:56 – How the next downturn could impact ETFs 46:17 – Do ETF’s create pricing distortions 50:33 – What trend is Eric most interested in right now 53:21 – Alpha through Beta 55:51 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Eric Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

26 Juni 201859min

My guests this week are Kyle Samani and Tushar Jain, both managing partners at Multicoin Capital. I’ve taken a bit of a break from crypto because I hadn’t sensed many new angles to explore in this forum, from an investor’s point of view. I felt that while things keep evolving, the major investment theses have been established and explored. Kyle and Tushar are interesting because of their often divergent views. For example, Kyle has been an outspoken supporter of Ethereum relative to bitcoin. This conversation, which is meant for those still curious about crypto, offers lots of new food for thought. We discuss smart contract platforms, network effects, the coming platform wars, and why blockchains may not matter in ten years. Please enjoy my conversation with the partners of Multicoin Capital. Hash Power is presented by Fidelity Investments For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Links Referenced Paths to Tens of Trillions An (Institutional) Investor’s Take on Cryptoassets On the Network Effects of Store Value If SaaS Products Sell Themselves, Why Do We Need Sales? Money, blockchains, and social scalability Nakamoto Institute Token Economy Multicoin.capital Crypto Cannon              Show Notes 2:11 - (First Question) – What would get the entire cryptocurrencies ecosphere to 5-10 trillion dollars             2:53 – Paths to Tens of Trillions 4:37 – What will be the effective uses for crypto currencies, store value vs utility value             4:38 – An (Institutional) Investor’s Take on Cryptoassets 8:48 – Why they are negative on bitcoin and more positive on Ethereum 10:07 – Where will start to see widespread adaption of the utility value of cryptocurrencies 14:44 – What is the major breakthrough that cryptocurrencies create 21:21 – How do we gain confidence that a utility token will become a sound investment 25:16 – The different type of network effects             25:47 – On the Network Effects of Store Value 31:18 – How do you convince institutional investors to consider the crypto space 34:21 – Factors that they care about when first evaluating a crypto currency 39:21 – How does technological development and marketing factor into their decision when picking a crypto currency             40:31 – If SaaS Products Sell Themselves, Why Do We Need Sales? 41:42 – Where these two men disagree the most right now 44:07 – Why there’s a chance blockchain technology as we know it today could be irrelevant             44:25 – Money, blockchains, and social scalability 47:56 – Most compelling trends in this world today 51:51 – A favorite resource or person people can look into if they want to learn more             52:22 – Nakamoto Institute             52:57 – Token Economy             53:24 – Multicoin.capital             53:30 – Crypto Cannon          54:14 – Kindest thing anyone has done for them   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

19 Juni 201859min

My guest this week is Michael Recce, the chief data scientist for Neuberger Berman. The topic of our conversation is the use of data in the investment process, to help cultivate what is commonly referred to as an information edge. I call the episode “Tim Cook’s Dashboard” because of an interesting question that Michael poses: if you armed the best apple analyst in the world with Tim Cook’s private business dashboard, what might that be worth? Effectively Michael’s goal is to recreate the equivalent of a company dashboard for many businesses, helping analysts understand the fundamental health and direction of companies a bit better than the market does, and in so doing create an actionable edge. This is a daunting task, and you will hear why. It requires both a fundamental understanding of business and of data, statistics, and methods like machine learning. In our own work, we’ve found machine learning to be useless for predicting future stock prices, but extremely useful for other things, like extracting and classifying data. This conversation can get wonky at times, but as listeners know that is the best kind of conversation, even if it requires a second, slower listen. I hope you enjoy this talk with Michael Reece. Afterwards, I highly recommend you invest the time to read a series of posts called Machine Learning for Humans, which I will link to in the show notes. It helps demystify the buzz words and explain how these new technologies are being used.   For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Books Referenced Crossing the Chasm One Two Three Infinity   Links Referenced Sam Hinkie Podcast Episode   Show Notes 2:44 - (First Question) –  Changes in data science through the lens of Michael’s career 5:17 – The basic overview of using data and machine learning to create an edge 6:58 – How the state of business is more than just a single data point 7:53 – How you know when you’ve pulled a real signal from the noise of data 10:49 – The advantages that data provides 13:01 – Is there still an edge in decaying data 15:34 – Building data that would predict stock prices 19:43 – Prospectors vs miners in data mining 22:18 – Knowing when your prospectors are on to truth 27:09 – Understanding machine learning 30:10 – Defining partition 32:17 – Applying the parameters of selection process to stocks 36:05 – What’s the first step people could take to use data and machine learning to improve their investment process 38:54 – Building a sustainable advantage within data science 41:35 – Predicting the uncapped positive vs what’s seemingly easier, eliminating the negative 43:58 – How do we know to stop using a signal 46:22 – The importance of asking the right question 47:09 – Categories of objective functions that are interesting to measure data against             47:42- Crossing the Chasm 48:37 – Most exciting things he’s found with data 51:17 – What investors, individual or firms, has impressed him most with their use of data 52:17 – Will everyone eventually shift to being data informed or data driven 55:33 – Wall Street’s use of data vs other industries             55:36 – Sam Hinkie Podcast Episode 57:48 – Why everyone should know how to code 58:52 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Michael             59:22 – One Two Three Infinity   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

12 Juni 20181h 2min

My guest this week is Ash Fontana, a managing partner at venture capital firm Zetta, who invests in companies which build software that uses artificial intelligence methods like machine learning to predict and prescribe outcomes. Ash’s combined experience as a founder, entrepreneur, and investor give him the perfect background to discuss with us one of the hottest topics in business and investing. This conversation is useful for anyone trying to evolve their own way of dealing with data. Of particular interest are the ways that Ash and his team evaluate data sets and how they think about competitive advantage in this new world—where he advocates a new term to replace the concept of moat: loops.  If we can use data to do things better than humans, or if we can supercharge our intuitions with predictive models, we can harness the power of this new technology. What Ash has taught me is that data itself is dumb. But great data sets can represent the fuel for incredible companies. Let’s dive into how that may be. Please enjoy this conversation on how AI is changing business, and how we might profit from that change.   For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Books Referenced The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for The Thoughtful Investor   Links Referenced Jerry Neumann Podcast Episode Ali Hamed Podcast Episode   Show Notes 2:25 - (First Question) – A look at their very specific investment strategy 3:35 – Future of competitive advantage in the SaaS industry 6:45 – How startups and new companies can compete against software giants that are pretty well entrenched in the market 8:38 – How do copies with narrow focuses attract VC money which is looking for massive returns 12:28 – The stages in which AI will be enabled 15:55 – Framework of an AI company 18:49 – Importance of the feedback in the AI company framework 20:56 – Examples of AI companies 23:50 – Why companies that are AI from the start will have a significant advantage in the space 26:21 – How do companies change their thinking about compiling useful data 32:18 – Regulation of AI 35:03 – Preventing other companies from leap frogging you in the AI space 37:57 – Some of his favorite AI companies 40:43 – How much has he seen in the finance world             41:07 – Jerry Neumann Podcast Episode 43:10 – Why the focus on B2B AI companies 45:34 – Major components of the enterprise stack that he focuses on for AI 49:30 – What impact will all of this AI have the daily lives of people 51:38 – Biggest problems that he is excited to see AI tacklet 53:04 – How do you value the intangible asset of an AI model 57:13 – How Ash thinks about getting other investors into firms they seeded 1::00:27 – Other investors that Ash really respects             1:01:15 – The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for The Thoughtful Investor             1:03:29 – Ali Hamed Podcast Episode 1:04:04 – Where would Ash invest outside of AI 1:07:11 – More about his family nut business 1:11:18 – Favorite macadamia nut story 1:12:05 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Ash   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

5 Juni 20181h 16min