Double Whammy HIGH Risk for Tornados and Flooding

National Hurricane Center Product and Service Updates for 2025Meteorology Matters summarizes the key updates to products and services that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will implement for the 2025 hurricane season, as outlined in the provided document. These updates aim to improve public communication of hurricane risks, enhance forecast accuracy, and provide more detailed information on potential impacts.Main Themes:Enhanced Communication of Inland Wind and Rip Current Risks: The NHC is focusing on improving the communication of hurricane-related risks beyond the immediate coastline, specifically addressing inland wind threats and dangerous rip currents.Earlier Issuance of Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclones: Recognizing the need for timely warnings, the NHC will now issue advisory products for potential tropical cyclones earlier in their development.Increased Detail and Lead Time in Wind and Wave Forecasts: Forecast information regarding hurricane-force winds will be extended, and the representation of sea state in forecasts will be updated to better align with user preferences.Introduction of Probabilistic Storm Surge Guidance for Hawaii: For the first time, the Hawaiian Islands will receive probabilistic storm surge forecasts, providing a more nuanced understanding of potential inundation.Continued Improvement in Track Forecast Accuracy: The NHC's track forecast error cone will be reduced in size for both the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins, reflecting ongoing improvements in forecasting.Leveraging Social Media for Real-time Updates and Outreach: The NHC continues to utilize various social media platforms to provide timely information, engage with the public, and enhance outreach efforts.Most Important Ideas and Facts:1. Experimental Cone Graphic with Inland Watches and Warnings:Change: The NHC will continue to issue an experimental version of the hurricane cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for the continental United States.Rationale: This is based on feedback from the 2024 season and social science research suggesting it will "help communicate wind risk during tropical cyclone events while not overcomplicating the current version of the graphic."New Feature: The experimental cone legend will now include symbology for areas under simultaneous hurricane watch and tropical storm warning (diagonal pink and blue lines).Availability: It will be available on hurricanes.gov for full and intermediate advisories, generally within 30 minutes of the advisory release, though potential technical issues could affect timeliness.Operational Graphic: The current operational cone graphic, which only depicts coastal watches/warnings, will remain available without changes.Feedback: There will be an opportunity to provide comments on the experimental graphic.

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NOAA's Office of Aircraft Operations and the National Hurricane CenterRecent layoffs at NOAA's Office of Aircraft Operations (OAO), home of the Hurricane Hunters, and staffing reductions at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are raising significant concerns about the future quality of hurricane monitoring, prediction, and warnings. The termination of key personnel, particularly flight directors for the Hurricane Hunter aircraft, threatens the ability to maintain crucial 24/7 flight operations during significant hurricane events. Experts warn that these cuts, coupled with potential further staff and funding reductions outlined in the administration's "Project 2025" plan, could lead to less accurate forecasts, increased risks for coastal communities, and a degradation of vital hurricane research. The specialized capabilities of NOAA's Hurricane Hunter aircraft, particularly their Doppler radar, are critical for feeding data into advanced forecast models, and a reduction in their operation would negatively impact forecast accuracy.Main Themes and Key Ideas:1. Layoffs at NOAA's Office of Aircraft Operations (Hurricane Hunters):Significant Staff Reduction in Key Roles: NOAA laid off two flight directors and one electronic engineer on February 28th. Flight directors, meteorologists responsible for mission safety from a meteorological perspective, are required on every Hurricane Hunter mission.As Jeff Masters notes, "every hurricane hunter mission is required to carry a flight director – a meteorologist who is charged with ensuring the safety of the mission from a meteorological perspective."Reduced Capacity for 24/7 Operations: The loss of two flight directors reduces the number from eight (needed for continuous operation of three aircraft) to just six. This barely covers the twice-daily flight schedule during significant hurricanes, leaving no buffer for illness or other unforeseen circumstances.Kerri Englert, one of the fired flight directors, stated that NOAA had aimed for ten flight director positions, but the layoffs left only six. "Now, she said, if one flight director is sick, there will be fewer hurricane hunter flights."Potential for Further Staff Depletions: Concerns exist that remaining staff may seek new employment due to job insecurity, exacerbating the staffing shortage.Masters suggests, "if I still had my old job as a flight director for NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters, worries about my job security would have me looking hard for new employment."Impact on Data Quality, Not Just Quantity: While the Air Force also operates hurricane hunter aircraft, NOAA's planes possess unique capabilities, particularly Doppler radar, which provides detailed 3D storm imagery crucial for forecast models.Masters emphasizes, "the loss of a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft because of short staffing will not greatly reduce the overall quantity of flights undertaken. However, it will significantly reduce the quality of the data collected, potentially negatively impacting hurricane forecasts."

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Scientists and Supporters Will "Stand Up for Science" on March 7, 2025Meteorology Matters looks into the "Stand Up for Science" rallies scheduled to take place nationwide on Friday, March 7, 2025. These rallies are a direct response to recent actions by President Donald Trump's administration, including significant budget cuts and mass firings within federally supported scientific agencies. Organized by researchers, the "Stand Up for Science" movement aims to defend science as a crucial pillar of public benefit, urge policymakers to protect scientific integrity and funding, and emphasize the non-partisan nature of scientific progress. The movement draws inspiration from the 2017 March for Science but is characterized by a more focused vision and policy demands.Main Themes and Important Ideas:1. Response to Perceived Threats to Science:The primary driver behind the "Stand Up for Science" rallies is a perceived threat to the scientific enterprise in the United States stemming from the actions of President Donald Trump's administration.Sources highlight funding cuts and mass firings across key federal scientific agencies, including the National Institutes of Health (NIH), National Science Foundation (NSF), and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)."The rallies come in response to the actions of President Donald Trump, which has resulted in funding cuts and mass firings across federally supported scientific agencies." (The Dai)"Within weeks of the presidential inauguration, Mr. Trump has already reshaped much of the federal scientific enterprise, which funds a significant chunk of academic research." (The New York Times)Concerns extend to the termination of funding for global health programs, firing of disease screeners, gutting of climate policy, and attempts to suspend funding for nuclear protection. (The New York Times)The administration's review of grants mentioning terms related to diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility (DEI) is also a significant concern."'Woman' and ‘female’ were on that list,' she said. ‘They were my words. I’m a woman. I’m female.'" (referring to DEI-related terms under review by the NSF - The New York Times)2. Goals and Objectives of the "Stand Up for Science" Movement:The overarching goal is to defend science as a public good and ensure its benefits continue to serve everyone."On Friday, March 7, multiple “Stand Up for Science” protests nationwide will spring up to defend science as a pillar of social benefit..." (The Dai, The Dai - Repetition likely due to duplicate source)"Stand Up for Science is an organization working to defend science as a public good and pillar of social, political and economic progress..." (What is a Stand Up for Science 2025 rally?)Specific policy demands include:

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Analysis of Executive Orders Aimed at Fast-Tracking Logging on Federal LandsPresident Donald Trump has signed executive orders with the stated goal of significantly increasing domestic timber production on federal lands, including national forests and those managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). These orders aim to achieve this by directing federal agencies to expedite permitting processes, potentially bypass environmental regulations like the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), and explore measures to counter foreign timber imports. While proponents argue this will boost the economy, reduce housing costs, and address national security concerns related to timber supply, environmental groups and legal experts raise significant concerns about potential ecological damage, increased wildfire risks, threats to endangered species, and the legality of the proposed actions. The use of the "God Squad" and emergency provisions of the ESA to facilitate logging is particularly contentious and faces legal challenges.Main Themes and Important Ideas/Facts:1. Executive Orders Aimed at Increasing Timber Production:President Trump signed an executive order titled "Immediate Expansion of American Timber Production" on March 1, 2025. This order directs the U.S. Forest Service and the BLM to update their guidelines to "facilitate increased timber production." (Izzo)A companion directive declared that "onerous' federal policies have prevented the United States from developing a sufficient timber supply, increasing housing and construction costs and threatening national security." (Friedman)The executive orders also task the Commerce Department with investigating whether other countries are "dumping" lumber into American markets, potentially leading to tariffs on imports, particularly from Canada. (Friedman, Singh & Geman)Another key aspect is the exploration of new categorical exclusions under NEPA and the reestablishment of exclusions for timber salvage and thinning, which could allow more logging projects to bypass thorough environmental reviews. (Singh & Geman)

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Is Foggy Florida Connected to “Operation Sea Spray” Bioweapon? 1. 1950 Bioweapon Experiment in San Francisco:Main Theme: The U.S. military conducted a secret bioweapon simulation in San Francisco in 1950, exposing residents to Serratia marcescens, a bacterium initially believed to be harmless. This experiment, known as "Operation Sea Spray," aimed to assess the vulnerability of a large city to biological warfare.2. Mysterious Fog and Potential Health Impacts (February 2025):Main Theme: Reports of an unusual fog with a chemical smell sweeping across parts of Florida in early 2025, raising concerns among residents about potential health risks and comparisons to the 1950 "Operation Sea Spray."Key Facts/Ideas:Residents reported the fog as "unnatural," smelling of chemicals or metal.The National Weather Service (NWS) issued dense fog advisories for the affected areas.Locals reported symptoms like coughing, sore throat, congestion, eye irritation, lethargy, loss of appetite, and gut issues after exposure to the fog.Some speculate the fog is a biological or chemical weapon, drawing parallels to the 1950 San Francisco experiment.Authorities suggest the fog is likely a natural weather event coinciding with common winter viruses, and the smell is due to pollutants trapped in the fog.Fog can exacerbate respiratory issues due to increased moisture content in the air.The article mentions Serratia marcescens, Bacillus atrophaeus as the bacteris used in operation sea spray.Quotes:"'I live in Lake County, it's so thick. It's not natural fog,' one resident shared online.""experts have stated that there is no evidence to suggest that this 'sickness-causing' fog is anything but a co-occurrence of a natural weather event and the viruses that are especially common this time of year."3. Unusually Cold Winter in the U.S. and Upcoming Spring Weather (Winter 2024-2025):Main Theme: The United States experienced a colder-than-average winter (December 2024 - February 2025), followed by a stormy start to meteorological spring.Key Facts/Ideas:The winter was the coldest in the U.S. since 2013-2014, averaging 1.1 degrees below average.Despite the cold, snowfall was generally below average across the country.High pressure in the Arctic displaced the polar vortex, pushing polar air masses into the U.S.More than 111 million people experienced subzero temperatures.The week of March 3, 2025, is expected to bring severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, strong winds, and potential blizzard conditions.A record warm patch of ocean water in the western Gulf of Mexico could contribute to a significant warm-up later in March.4. Connections and Potential ImplicationsThe mysterious fog in Florida is causing alarm, with some residents drawing parallels to the "Operation Sea Spray" experiment. This highlights public distrust and concerns about government transparency and potential environmental and health risks. However, experts are dismissing this theory.The colder-than-average winter and the forecasted severe weather events further contribute to a sense of environmental instability and potential health hazards.

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FAQ on Recent Changes Affecting NOAA and the U.S. Weather EnterpriseWhat actions have the Trump administration and Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) taken that are impacting NOAA?The Trump administration, guided by DOGE, has initiated several measures impacting NOAA, including canceling leases for key weather forecasting centers like the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, MD, and the Radar Operations Center in Norman, OK, initiating layoffs of NOAA employees, particularly probationary staff and those involved in DEI initiatives, terminating NOAA's space, climate, and marine life advisory committees, and planning for deeper budget cuts.Why are the lease cancellations for NOAA buildings a cause for concern?The NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction houses the National Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Environmental Modeling Center. Canceling the lease could force NOAA to replicate its functionality elsewhere, potentially causing critical forecasting gaps lasting a year or more, requiring new congressional appropriations, and disrupting the generation of national weather forecasts. The Radar Operations Center is vital for maintaining and improving the nation’s Doppler weather radar network.What is the potential impact of NOAA staff layoffs on weather forecasting and public safety?Layoffs, particularly of experienced meteorologists-in-charge at local forecast offices and staff at the Environmental Modeling Center, could compromise forecast and warning accuracy, delay detection of severe weather events like tornadoes, and reduce the agency's ability to update and maintain critical weather models. This, combined with the impacts of climate change, could have adverse consequences for public safety.What is the role of NOAA's advisory committees, and why is their termination significant?NOAA's advisory committees consisted of non-federal experts providing advice on critical issues such as space debris, climate services, coastal area management, and marine fisheries. Terminating these committees eliminates a crucial channel for external expertise, potentially leading to decisions that are not informed by the best available science.What is the American Meteorological Society's (AMS) position on the changes affecting NOAA and other federal science agencies?The AMS urges strong support for NOAA and other federal science agencies and extreme caution in altering federal roles and responsibilities within the weather enterprise. It warns that reductions in federal science capabilities risk U.S. leadership in scientific innovation and could increase vulnerability to hazardous weather. The AMS emphasizes the importance of the public-private partnership in the weather enterprise for public safety, economic well-being, and U.S. global leadership.

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# What is the primary concern regarding the firings at NOAA and the National Weather Service?The main concern is that the mass firings, coupled with previous staff reductions, will severely hinder the agencies' ability to effectively monitor and predict weather hazards, including extreme events like hurricanes, tornadoes, and tsunamis. This could compromise public safety, economic stability, and the accuracy of weather forecasts that both the public and private sectors rely upon. The firings impacted a wide range of positions, from meteorologists and hydrologists to technicians and modelers.# Which specific areas within NOAA and the National Weather Service were most affected by the firings?The firings impacted numerous critical areas within NOAA and the NWS. Key areas hit include: the Environmental Modeling Center (responsible for building and maintaining weather prediction models), the National Hurricane Center, tsunami warning centers in Alaska and Hawaii, weather forecast offices across the country, the Aircraft Operations Center (which flies into hurricanes), and the Office of Space Commerce. Critical support staff such as equipment technicians and communications personnel were also affected.# How might the cuts to NOAA and the NWS affect hurricane forecasting and preparedness?The loss of experienced hurricane modelers, flight directors at the Aircraft Operations Center, and other critical personnel raises serious concerns about the accuracy and timeliness of hurricane forecasts. Fewer reconnaissance flights into hurricanes could result in less data, impacting the ability to predict storm intensity and track. Reduced staffing at local weather forecast offices could also hinder the ability to provide timely warnings and support emergency managers.# What is Project 2025, and how does it relate to the NOAA firings?Project 2025 is a policy blueprint from the Heritage Foundation that calls for a significant reduction in the size of the federal government. Specifically, with respect to NOAA, the plan advocates for dismantling the agency and commercializing its forecasting operations, with the NWS primarily focusing on data gathering. Critics argue that the NOAA firings align with the goals of Project 2025 and represent a step toward privatizing weather forecasting, which could lead to reduced public access to vital weather information.# What specific types of jobs were affected by the layoffs?The layoffs affected a wide range of positions, including meteorologists, hydrologists, technicians, modelers, communications personnel, and even those responsible for repairing critical equipment like radar systems. Many of those fired were probationary employees, which included both recent hires and experienced federal workers who had recently been promoted or transferred. The loss of these experienced individuals, even those classified as probationary, represents a significant loss of institutional knowledge and expertise.# What actions are being taken to protest and counteract the cuts to NOAA and the National Weather Service?The "Stand Up for Science" rallies are being organized to protest the attacks on science and to advocate for increased scientific funding, an end to censorship and political interference in science, and the defense of diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility in science. Lawmakers are also denouncing the layoffs, with some vowing to fight the actions in Congress and the courts. Some employees were rehired due to legal rulings.#standupforscience

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Meteorology Matters examines the complex and ultimately self-destructive relationship between Adolf Hitler and wealthy German industrialists and media moguls who initially supported his rise to power, driven by a desire for profit and a fear of communism, but later faced dire consequences, including loss of power, imprisonment, and complicity in war crimes.Key Ideas and Facts:Early Capitalist Distrust: In the 1920s and early 1930s, Hitler and the Nazi Party were generally viewed with suspicion by capitalists. The Nazi's platform was "belligerently nationalistisch but also unapologetically sozialistisch." Their 25-point platform explicitly targeted bankers, financiers, and industrialists, calling for nationalization and confiscation of profits.Key Enablers: Hugenberg and Thyssen: Despite initial capitalist distrust, some wealthy individuals provided crucial support.Alfred Hugenberg: A media mogul and industrialist who provided Hitler with "electoral capital" in January 1933, enabling his appointment as chancellor. Hugenberg used his media empire to disseminate National Socialist ideas, practicing "Katastrophenpolitik" (politics of catastrophe) to polarize public opinion. He initially believed he could control Hitler, stating, "Hitler will sit in the saddle but Hugenberg holds the whip." After being appointed to a cabinet post as head of a "Superministerium", Hugenberg tried to advance economic growth through territorial expansion, which ultimately led to his resignation from his minister post in June 1933.Fritz Thyssen: An heir to a leading industrial fortune, was an early and significant financier of the Nazi movement. He provided approximately 1 million reichsmarks and facilitated Hitler's address to industrialists in Düsseldorf in 1932, which resulted in "a number of large contributions flow[ing] from the resources of heavy industry into the treasuries of the National Socialist party.” Thyssen eventually regretted his support and ended up in a concentration camp.The Shift in Corporate Sentiment: As Hitler's power grew, the attitude of the capitalist class shifted. They began to see him as a bulwark against the left-wing Social Democrats and Communists. Banker Kurt Baron von Schröder provided Hitler with a crucial 30 million reichsmark credit line just before his appointment as chancellor.Göring's Fundraiser: On February 20, 1933, Hermann Göring hosted a fundraiser for the Nazi Party, attended by prominent industrialists and bankers, including Gustav Krupp von Bohlen and directors from I.G. Farben. Hitler himself attended, promising to restore the military, assert totalitarian control, and crush political opponents. The fundraiser generated 3 million reichsmarks. Göring stated that the upcoming election "will surely be the last one for the next 10 years, probably even for the next 100 years."Corporate Complicity: German corporations actively participated in building the Third Reich, with companies like Ferdinand Porsche (Volkswagen), Mercedes-Benz, Hugo Boss (SS uniforms), Krupp (armaments), and Allianz (insurance for concentration camps) contributing to the Nazi war machine.Significance: The article serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of prioritizing profit and short-term political gains over ethical considerations and the long-term consequences of supporting extremist ideologies. It highlights the complicity of corporate elites in the rise of totalitarian regimes and the devastating impact of their actions.

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