Double Whammy HIGH Risk for Tornados and Flooding

NOAA Firings - February 2025The Trump administration, influenced by entities like Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and guided by principles outlined in Project 2025, initiated mass layoffs at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other federal agencies in late February 2025. These layoffs disproportionately targeted probationary employees, impacting critical functions such as weather forecasting, climate research, and emergency services. The moves have drawn criticism from lawmakers, scientists, and agency staff, who warn of significant damage to public safety, the economy, and the nation's ability to respond to extreme weather events.Key Themes and Information:Mass Layoffs at NOAA:Hundreds of employees were fired, impacting various divisions within NOAA, including the National Weather Service (NWS), satellite divisions, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research. (Axios)The New York Times reports firings are expected to affect over 800 employees out of a total of 13,000 at NOAA.Impact on Agency Functions:Layoffs are expected to "set the agency back years and compromise the integrity of missions that directly support human health and safety, economic prosperity and national security.” (NYT, policy analyst quote)The SF Chronicle cites a person familiar with the matter as saying, "Some NOAA offices could lose up to 25% of their staff."Timing and Context:The firings occurred shortly after Howard Lutnick was sworn in as the new Commerce Department secretary, under which NOAA falls. (NYT)Layoffs coincide with potential severe weather outbreaks and the approaching Atlantic hurricane season. (WaPo)Motivations and Ideological Influences:Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is cited as a driving force behind the cuts. (Axios, SF Chronicle)Project 2025 also suggests commercializing the National Weather Service. (NYT)Reactions and Concerns:Lawmakers have denounced the layoffs, with Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) stating the move is "a direct hit to our economy, because NOAA's specialized workforce provides products and services that support more than a third of the nation's GDP." (Axios)Miyoko Sakashita, the director of oceans projects at the Center for Biological Diversity, stated, "Gutting NOAA will hamstring essential lifesaving programs that forecast storms, ensure ocean safety and prevent the extinction of whales and sea otters.” (NYT)Specific Examples of Impact:Emma Esquivel, executive assistant to Alaska’s National Weather Service director, received a termination email stating she was "not fit for continued employment because your ability, knowledge and/or skills do not fit the agency’s current needs.” (NYT)Andrew Hazleton, a physical scientist for the Weather Service and a veteran of NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter missions, confirmed his termination. (WaPo)Financial Implications:The National Weather Service budget is roughly $1.4 billion, which equates to about $4 per taxpayer. (SF Chronicle)The SF Chronicle states that a 2024 report showed weather service forecasts provide an estimated benefit of $102.1 billion to the U.S. public, which is a return of $73 for every dollar invested.

28 Feb 21min

American Farmers Sue USDA for Deletion of Climate Data from Government WebsitesOrganic farmers and environmental groups have filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) for removing climate change-related data, websites, and resources from its online platforms. The plaintiffs argue that this action hinders farmers' ability to plan and adapt to climate change, disrupts research efforts, and violates federal laws related to government transparency and agency action. The suit alleges that the USDA's actions were arbitrary, capricious, and politically motivated, and seeks to compel the agency to restore the deleted information.Key Themes and Ideas:Deletion of Climate Data and Resources:The USDA, allegedly under the directive of Director of Digital Communications Peter Rhee, ordered staff to remove climate change-focused webpages, data sets, interactive tools, and funding information from its websites. The directive was issued on January 30, 2025.The lawsuit claims that the department “acted swiftly to purge department websites of climate-change-focused webpages,” (Washington Post) leading to confusion and inaccessibility of resources for farmers and the public.Examples cited include the removal of a Farm Service Agency webpage detailing how to apply for Climate-Smart Agriculture and Farm Loan Programs, and the Forest Service's deletion of an interactive map showing climate change vulnerability assessments.The data was deemed by the plaintiffs to be useful to farmers for business planning. The lawsuit said that the department was hindering farmers from using the data to make “agricultural decisions” (Washington Post).Impact on Farmers and Researchers:The deleted information is considered crucial for farmers facing climate change-related risks such as "heat waves, droughts, floods, extreme weather and wildfires" (New York Times).The data removal makes it harder for climate researchers and advocates to do their jobs.Wes Gillingham, president of the Northeast Organic Farming Association of New York, stated, "Right now, because of climate change and because of what farmers are facing in terms of extreme weather events, we need every piece of available information we can get. We don’t have access to that, we’re not going to make it" (New York Times).Legal Arguments and Violations Alleged:The plaintiffs allege violations of the Paperwork Reduction Act, the Freedom of Information Act, and the Administrative Procedure Act.The lawsuit claims that the USDA’s actions were "arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise not in accordance with law" (New York Times).The suit seeks a court order to declare the USDA's actions unlawful, compel the restoration of the deleted webpages, and prevent further deletions.Political Context and Motivations:The lawsuit suggests the data removal is "part of a trend" under the Trump administration to dismantle climate protections and reverse federal policies aimed at fighting and measuring climate change (Washington Post).The timing of the data deletion coincided with a freeze on funding promised by the USDA under climate and conservation programs, which had been set in motion by the Trump administration.Gillingham states that "taking information down because of a 'political agenda about climate change' was senseless" (New York Times).

27 Feb 8min

Recent Controversies Regarding Education and Environmental Policy in FloridaExecutive Summary: This document summarizes recent actions in Florida that have drawn criticism for alleged political influence on education and environmental policy. These include the removal of climate change references from textbooks, the proposed renaming of the "Gulf of Mexico" to the "Gulf of America" in state materials, and broader concerns about "ideology or indoctrination" in schools.Key Themes and Ideas:Textbook Censorship & Climate Change Denial:Summary: The Florida Department of Education is accused of removing or altering textbook content to minimize or eliminate references to climate change.Details:A 90-page section on climate change was removed from a high school chemistry book.References to climate change were cut from middle school biology textbooks, including passages urging government action, deemed a "political statement."The state demanded citations supporting the link between "human activity" and climate change in a high school biology textbook."They asked to take out phrases such as climate change."No high school environmental science textbooks were included in the state's list of acceptable books.Context: These actions follow the removal of "DEI" (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) and "critical race theory" references from textbooks.Impact: Critics argue that these actions deny students a deeper understanding of climate change and its implications, especially considering Florida's vulnerability to climate change impacts.Quote: "Educators told the Sentinel the state's 'ill-considered actions' will 'rob students of a deeper understanding of global warming' and 'cheat Florida students.'""Gulf of America" Initiative:Summary: Florida GOP lawmakers have introduced bills to rename the "Gulf of Mexico" as the "Gulf of America" in state laws and educational materials, following an executive order from former President Donald Trump.Details:Multiple bills in the Florida Senate and House seek to replace all references to the "Gulf of Mexico" with "Gulf of America."One bill proposes designating a section of U.S. Highway 41 as the "Gulf of America Trail."The bills would require state agencies, county school districts, and charter school boards to use materials reflecting the new name.Governor DeSantis referenced "an area of low pressure moving across the Gulf of America" in an order about a winter storm.The bills would update the name in over 50 Florida statutes.Quote: The bill noted that the “Gulf of Mexico spans approximately 1,700 miles along the United States coastline, of which 770 miles are located along the Florida coast.”Quote: Trump’s executive order directed the secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior to “rename the Gulf of Mexico as the ‘Gulf of America’ in order to recognize the importance of the body of water to the United States.”"Ideology" and State Control Over Education:Summary: The Florida Department of Education asserts its role in ensuring that instructional materials align with state standards and do not include "any form of ideology or indoctrination."Details:The DeSantis administration has been accused of aligning Florida's public education system with conservative views.

27 Feb 17min

Wind Load Impact on Tall Buildings During Severe Wind EventsMeteorology Matters looks at the performance of tall building facades under severe wind conditions, focusing on damage observations from recent events (May-July 2024) including a derecho and Hurricane Beryl in Houston, Texas. The study combines real-world damage assessments with wind tunnel simulations conducted at the NSF NHERI Wall of Wind Experimental Facility to understand the factors contributing to facade failures. A key finding is that non-hurricane wind events, like derechos and downbursts, can cause significant localized damage due to wind channeling effects in urban areas and the unique characteristics of these wind events. The research highlights the need for reassessing wind load design criteria for tall buildings to account for these factors.Key Themes and Ideas:Increased Vulnerability of Tall Buildings: The article emphasizes the growing number of tall buildings in urban environments and their inherent vulnerability to extreme wind events."As urbanization accelerates, the construction of tall buildings has surged, becoming a defining feature of modern cityscapes... Tall buildings, while contributing to economic growth and urban development, face substantial risks from extreme wind events, such as hurricanes and downbursts."Impact of Non-Hurricane Wind Events: A core argument is that localized convective systems like derechos and downbursts pose a significant threat to tall building facades, sometimes causing more damage than hurricanes with comparable wind speeds."localized convective systems such as derecho and downbursts rank among the most formidable natural forces capable of inflicting severe damage on tall structures.""Comparing the observations in both events, the damage resulted from the derecho was more severe than that resulted from the hurricane, despite comparable gust speeds."Wind Channeling in Urban Areas: The study identifies wind channeling in densely built urban environments as a critical factor in facade damage. The interaction of wind forces with surrounding buildings can amplify pressures on specific facades."...critical vulnerabilities in tall building façades, particularly in relation to wind channeling effects in densely built urban areas.""As observed, channelling effects in dense urban environment might have a significant consequence on the wind-induced local pressures and have contributed to the damage observed in Houston during the derecho."Need for Reassessing Wind Load Design: The research suggests that current wind load design criteria may not adequately account for the complexities of wind behavior in urban areas, especially concerning non-hurricane events."...underscore the need for a reassessment of wind effects on tall buildings to better reflect the complex interactions between wind forces and urban environments."Wind Tunnel Testing Methodology: The study uses wind tunnel simulations at the NHERI Wall of Wind Experimental Facility to investigate wind loads on tall building models under both atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and downburst wind conditions. The wind tunnel is equipped with a 12-fan system simulating Category 5 hurricane conditions.

26 Feb 18min

Volcanic Unrest at Mount Spurr, Alaska (February 2025)Summary:Mount Spurr, a stratovolcano located approximately 75 miles west of Anchorage, Alaska, is exhibiting signs of increased volcanic activity, prompting close monitoring by the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO). The primary indicators are an increase in seismic activity, changes to the summit crater, and observations of fumaroles. While an eruption is not certain, volcanologists estimate a roughly 50-50 chance of an eruption at Crater Peak and are closely watching for additional signals that would indicate an increased likelihood. Past eruptions, particularly those in 1953 and 1992, demonstrate the potential for significant disruption to air travel due to ashfall.Key Themes and Details:Increased Seismic Activity: A significant increase in earthquakes has been recorded since April, escalating from approximately 30 per week to 125 per week. Over 2,700 earthquakes have been recorded in total, with the largest being a magnitude 2.9 quake on January 2. As noted by one article, "thousands of earthquakes and notable shifts in the terrain have been observed over recent weeks, indicating that the volcano may be on the verge of an eruption."Location of Potential Eruption: If an eruption occurs, scientists believe it is most likely to occur at Crater Peak, a vent located about two miles below the Spurr summit. Crater Peak erupted in 1953 and 1992.Potential Hazards: An eruption at Crater Peak could release "streams of hot gas, rock and ash traveling at speeds of more than 200 miles per hour." This could also lead to lahars (mudflows) due to melting snow and ice. While the immediate area around Mount Spurr is sparsely populated, the primary concern is ashfall affecting Anchorage and disrupting air travel.Impact on Air Travel: The 1992 eruption caused significant travel disruptions by blanketing Anchorage in ash and shutting down the airport. The USGS reports that "planes are highly susceptible to volcanic materials, which can damage the fuselage, blades and significantly hinder engine performance." The increased volume of air traffic in 2025 compared to 1992 suggests that a similar eruption could be even more disruptive today.Monitoring Efforts: The AVO is closely monitoring Mount Spurr using 11 seismic stations and conducting overflights to take gas measurements and maintain instruments. They are looking for specific warning signs that would indicate an imminent eruption, including increased seismic activity, gas emissions, surface heating, and changes in surface deformation. As Matt Haney stated, "We’re watching it very closely... We’re saying that there’s unrest above background [levels], but it’s uncertain if this is actually building to an eruption."Uncertainty of Eruption: While there is a 50-50 chance of an eruption, it is also possible that the volcanic unrest will subside without an eruption. Past episodes of increased activity have not always resulted in eruptions. According to one of the articles, "Sometimes there can be a build-up of magma beneath the volcano, but it doesn’t have enough magma to ultimately proceed all the way and produce a volcanic eruption."Advanced Warning: The AVO expects to see additional warning signs before an eruption, potentially providing "days to a few weeks" of advanced notice, although this is not guaranteed. The AVO stated that, "it is very likely that if an eruption were to occur it would be preceded by additional signals that would allow advance warning."

26 Feb 11min

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season OutlookDate: February 24, 2025Sources:"5 things Bryan Norcross is watching for the 2025 hurricane season" - Fox Weather"New NOAA system ushers in next generation of hurricane modeling, forecasting" - NOAA"After predicting 'hurricane season from hell,' forecaster is back for '25" - Chron.comExecutive Summary:The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is approaching, with the official start on June 1st. Forecasters are closely monitoring several factors that will influence the season's activity. While early predictions suggest a potentially less active season than the disastrous 2024 season, unusually warm Caribbean waters and other unpredictable elements mean coastal communities should remain vigilant. New forecasting technologies, like NOAA's HAFS model, promise improved accuracy in predicting storm intensity and track, offering more lead time for preparedness.Key Themes and Ideas:Seasonal Predictions and ENSO:ENSO-Neutral Conditions: Current outlooks suggest a likely ENSO-neutral phase, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña will dominate. Historically, ENSO-neutral years have produced varying levels of hurricane activity. "Forecasters are still analyzing the potential development of an El Niño or La Niña event for the upcoming season, but current outlooks suggest that the year will likely fall within an ENSO-neutral phase, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are expected to dominate."Spring Predictability Barrier: Forecasting ENSO conditions this time of year is difficult due to weak trade winds over the Pacific. "What that means is that this time of year and up into about March and maybe even April, it becomes very difficult and forecasts for whether it's going to be an El Niño or La Niña are much less reliable."WeatherBell's Forecast: After accurately predicting a severe 2024 season, WeatherBell Analytics forecasts a less impactful 2025 season with 15-19 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes. They suggest "fewer impacts" and "no clear landfall signals" unlike last year.Sea Surface Temperatures:Warm Caribbean Waters: Above-average temperatures in the Caribbean Sea raise concerns about potentially more intense hurricanes if storms enter that region. "The Caribbean is extremely warm. That suggests that if we get a storm, like Beryl, forming in the region, we could see an unusually strong system this year," said Norcross.Gulf and Western Atlantic: Water temperatures in the Gulf and western Atlantic fluctuate but can still provide fuel for developing systems.Cooler Atlantic: WeatherBell forecasters say that cooler conditions in the Atlantic favor a weaker season overall. "The Atlantic is much cooler than last year, and the swath of warmer water is shown to the north. This suggests less Main Development Region activity, but the worry have its share of issues."

25 Feb 13min

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook and PreparednessPurpose: To provide a summary of early predictions for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and offer recommendations for preparedness based on current information.Key Themes:Hurricane Season Timing: The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st to November 30th. However, storms can and have developed outside of these dates. The eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to November 30, while the central Pacific season (including Hawaii) runs June 1 through November 30.Early Predictions for 2025: Initial outlooks suggest an average to slightly above-average hurricane season in the Atlantic. However, experts caution that early predictions are subject to change."Looking ahead to the 2025 season, early outlooks from various weather organizations suggest an average to slightly above-average season. However, experts caution that early predictions are prone to errors." - Fox WeatherENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) Influence: ENSO is a critical factor influencing hurricane activity.Currently in a waning La Niña phase (late 2024), expected to transition to a neutral state in 2025.Neutral ENSO years have historically produced a wide range of hurricane activity."Historically, neutral ENSO years have produced a range of hurricane activity, from a below-average number of cyclones to well above-average seasons, depending on variables such as sea surface temperatures, wind patterns and other atmospheric factors." - Fox WeatherAccording to research from Florida State University, the Florida Peninsula and the Gulf Coast are especially affected during neutral ENSO years.Sea Surface Temperatures: Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, could contribute to increased tropical development."The Caribbean is already warm enough to sustain tropical activity... The Gulf is several degrees warmer than average for this time of the year, and if sustained for several months, that could lead to more development." - Weather.comImportance of Early Preparation: The documents stress that preparing now is crucial, not waiting until a storm is imminent.Key Facts and Ideas:2024 Season Recap: The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season had 18 named storms, including 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. This is considered an active year, but below expectations of early forecasts.An average season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes with an ACE value of around 122.Pre-Season Storms: Storms can and do form before the official June 1st start date. Examples cited: Tropical Storm Arlene (2023), Tropical Storm Bonnie (2016), Hurricane Alex (2016), Tropical Storm Beryl (2012)."Many recent years have had storms develop before June 1, the official start of hurricane season." - Weather.comHurricane Names: The naming list for the 2025 season is provided, with Andrea being the first name. Dexter replaces Dorian on the list."The first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Andrea, followed by Barry, Chantal and Dexter. The name Dexter replaces Dorian, which was retired after the 2019 season." - Fox Weather

21 Feb 14min

Allegations of Donald Trump's Recruitment by the KGBMultiple news sources report on allegations made by Alnur Mussayev, a former Kazakh intelligence chief, that Donald Trump was recruited by the KGB in 1987 and given the codename "Krasnov." These claims have resurfaced amid ongoing scrutiny of Trump's ties to Russia. Mussayev's allegations lack supporting evidence. There is also commentary on how a story about this allegation seemed to quickly disappear from the Daily Beast and other online sources.Key Themes and Information:Allegation of KGB Recruitment: The central claim is that Donald Trump was recruited by the KGB in 1987 while he was a New York real estate developer. Alnur Mussayev, a former head of Kazakhstan's National Security Committee and a former KGB officer, is the source of this allegation. According to Mussayev, the KGB targeted businessmen from capitalist countries for recruitment, and Trump was one such target. As Mussayev stated, "In 1987, our directorate recruited Donald Trump under the pseudonym Krasnov.”Lack of Evidence: The news reports emphasize that Mussayev's claim is unsubstantiated and lacks concrete evidence. While he alleges that a file on "Krasnov" exists and is now managed by a close associate of Putin within the FSB, he provides no proof to support this.Historical Context: Trump's 1987 Moscow Visit: The allegations are linked to Trump's visit to Moscow in 1987, during which he explored the possibility of building a hotel. Soviet officials reportedly facilitated this trip, raising questions about its true nature.KGB Recruitment Tactics: The reports mention a 1985 KGB document outlining how to identify and recruit Western figures. The document instructed agents to target "prominent figures in the West" with the aim of "drawing them into some form of collaboration with us… as an agent, or confidential or special or unofficial contact.” Mussayev's claim suggests Trump may have been a target of such a recruitment effort.Trump's Denials and Concerns of US Officials: Trump has consistently denied any improper ties to Russia or collusion with Vladimir Putin. However, some US officials have repeatedly expressed concerns about his relationship with the Kremlin leader.Scaramucci's Comments on Trump and Putin: Anthony Scaramucci, former White House communications director, has added to the speculation, suggesting that Trump's deference to Putin has puzzled many former senior officials. "I think there is a mysterious ‘hold’ on the president,” he said, noting that H.R. McMaster, James Mattis, and John Kelly were also unable to understand Trump's affinity for Putin.Possible Removal of Initial Report: There is a claim that the initial story of this allegation disappeared from the Daily Beast and other sources quickly. According to the "Magic Disappearing DB Story About Allegations Trump Was Recruited as a Russian A.pdf" source, "I expected to see this story covreed heavily here, but nary a peep, and within hours, it was scrubbed from both the Daily Beast’s site, as well as various other outlets on the internet."Conclusion:The reports highlight serious allegations against Donald Trump, claiming he was recruited by the KGB in 1987. However, these claims are currently unsubstantiated and should be treated with caution.

21 Feb 14min