Are 4% of young women in the UK on OnlyFans?

Here are More or Less we’ll all about the facts. Every day we use a toolkit of known proofs to try and answer our listeners’ questions. But who do we have to thank for this toolkit and how did they set about proving the unknown? Luckily for us mathematician Adam Kucharski has just written a book about this very topic called ‘Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty’. Join us to hear more about some of the proof pioneers included in his book, from estimating the number of German tanks during WW2 to an unsung heroine of statistics. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner

19 Apr 8min

What is the cash value of a human life? That’s the question at the heart of The Price of Life, a book by journalist Jenny Kleeman. It turns out that there’s not just one price, there are many - depending on exactly how that life is being created, traded or destroyed. Tim Harford talks to Jenny about what she discovered. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

12 Apr 8min

What is the error in the calculation Donald Trump used to work out his new tariffs?What happened when the government ordered a recount of bobbies on the beat?When is a tax freeze not a tax freeze?And do redheads really have a 25% higher tolerance to pain?Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This episode was originally broadcast on the 9th April.Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

9 Apr 29min

US President Donald Trump has announced sweeping tariffs on global trade, adding taxes of as much as 50% to imports from some countries. The tariffs, he says, are “reciprocal” – calculated to address currency manipulation and trade barriers that other countries place on the US. However, when you look at how the new tariffs were actually calculated, that claim does not add up. Tim Harford speaks to Thomas Sampson, an associate professor at the London School of Economics, to understand what is going on.Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

4 Apr 8min

Donald Trump is raising tariffs on Canada, but has his northern neighbour done anything to deserve them?In her Spring Statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that the UK’s fiscal “headroom” was, again, £9.9bn. We explore this curious coincidence.Is it true that one in four people in the UK is disabled? And what does that mean for the state of our workforce?Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

2 Apr 26min

Neighbours, everybody needs good neighbours, and since the end of the Second World War that’s exactly what the US and Canada have been. They’ve enjoyed free trade agreements, close knit economic ties - and not so friendly ice hockey matches. But recently this relationship has soured, with President Trump calling them “one of the nastiest countries to deal with”. It looks like the era of mostly free trade is over, with a raft of tariffs set to come into force on April the 2nd, or “liberation day” a Donald Trump calls it. But is President Trump right about the trading relationship between the two countries? What does he mean when he claims that “the US subsidises Canada $200 billion a year”? Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Studio manager: Andrew Mills

29 Mars 8min

Some Labour politicians have been calling for a wealth tax, claiming a 2% tax could raise £24bn. Where are the numbers from and do they add up? A listener asked why housing in the UK is the oldest in Europe. We explain what’s going on. The Office for National Statistics has changed how it measures the value of pensions and knocked £2 trillion off its estimates of wealth. Not everyone thinks it was a good change. We find out why.And Lent is here, but how long is the Christian fasting period? We look at the history of a very flexible 40 days. Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and the world around us. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

26 Mars 28min

On 27 December 2024, astronomers spotted an asteroid that was potentially heading towards earth. Named 2024 YR4, it was estimated to be between 40m and 90m across, with the potential to cause massive damage if it hit a populated area of the planet.The chances of that happening, however, seemed to fluctuate significantly - ranging from 1% to a peak of 3%, before falling to virtually zero. Tim Harford investigates what was going on, with the help of Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Hal Haines Editor: Richard Vadon

22 Mars 8min