Top Traders Unplugged28 Juni 2025

SI354: Everyone’s Different. Until They’re Not ft. Rob Carver

With markets drifting and conviction thinning, Rob Carver joins Niels to take stock of a moment that feels suspended... not quite crisis, not quite calm. They discuss why recent rule changes around bank capital and crypto assets may carry more weight than headlines suggest, and what falling shipping volumes might be whispering about global demand. Rob breaks down the math of drawdowns, the tension between Kelly sizing and real-world volatility, and how systematic managers can fool themselves into thinking they’re diversified. It’s a conversation about structure, discipline, and why most edges today come from avoiding mistakes rather than discovering secrets.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What has caught out attention recently?

01:23 - Rob and Niels have done the unthinkable

02:59 - Fed is rolling back important capital rules

05:22 - What the shipping industry reveals about the economy

07:33 - Industry performance update

16:00 - Q1, William: Is it possible to apply the concept of decomposing returns in commodity trading?

27:24 - Q2, Raphael: About estimating the full sharpe and Kelly of trend following

37:03 - Q3, Dom: Has Rob come across any useful frameworks, research, or resources for designing systems that intentionally combine systematic structure with discretionary judgment?

41:52 - Are all managers the same, although we all claim to be different?

52:26 - Why are bond investors contrarian while equity investors extrapolate?

01:01:59 - "What if you missed the best days of a market?"

01:11:53 - Rounding up

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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