Debunking Economics - the podcast18 Sep 2024

The Aggregate Problem

The UK’s unemployment rate is 4.1%, the inflation rate is growing at 3.1% and the economy is growing at 0.6% quarter on quarter. That’s how the economy is doing, what more do we need to know?

Well, it would be useful to know whether the unemployed are predominantly in certain income groups, or that income growth was greater in particular parts of the economy Like, more for capitalists and less for workers?

As Steve and Phil discuss this week, economists are building business models built on aggregates. Breaking down aggregate data into functions in society, or income, will add a lot of extra complexity to models, but they would do a much better job of showing us what’s going on. For example, central bank policy right now aims to restrict spending and wage growth to tame inflation. But, even if that was the cause of inflation, what if those creating inflation by spending more on services, are distinct from those facing the consequences of central bank policy, losing jobs and paying higher mortgages?

Steve points out that as the economy slows – and it has to because of climate change - knowing the distribution of income and consumption becomes vitally important. Unless we are prepared to see the rich grow richer at the expense of everyone else.

Economic models are built on aggregates of key variables. Those aggregates hide distribution impacts. That makes it easier for central banks to pursue monetary policy without worrying about the consequences.

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