Russia's Big & Bigger Attacks on Ukraine /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Patrick Henningsen

Russia has launched its largest wave of air attacks against Ukraine so far in the war—over 700 in a single night—marking a sharp escalation in the conflict. This follows recent surges of 500 and 550 air attacks on consecutive days, totaling over 1,700 strikes within a short period. The strikes, involving drones (mostly Shahed), cruise missiles, and hypersonic weapons, are devastating Ukrainian infrastructure and air defenses.

Analysts suggest that Russia has held back in earlier phases of the war but is now shifting tactics. This new wave of attacks signals a possible transition from what Moscow once called a “special military operation” to what they now frame as an “anti-terror operation,” suggesting greater intensity and less restraint going forward.

Russia appears to have overwhelming industrial and missile production capacity, and its strategy may now involve systematically disabling Ukraine’s air defenses to eventually enable full-scale aerial campaigns. Observers cite the precedent of Russia’s highly coordinated and destructive air operations in Syria (e.g., Operation Aleppo) as a warning of what may come next.

There’s also a geopolitical context: pressures from simultaneous regional issues (e.g., tensions in the Caucasus, challenges in the Middle East, strained ties with Turkey) may be prompting Moscow to accelerate its efforts in Ukraine to avoid overextension. Analysts like Patrick Henningsen and Col. Douglas Macgregor speculate that Russia may be seeking to wrap up the conflict sooner due to these broader strategic concerns.

Additionally, Russia’s escalation is triggering renewed anxiety among Ukraine’s Western backers. The U.S., particularly under Trump’s shifting posture, faces questions about whether its support will arrive too late or even matter at this point. Russia, for now, controls the pace of the war, dictating both military and political responses from the West.

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