Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: John Stoltzfus & Jay Bryson

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJuly 21st, 2025Featuring:1) Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, discusses her S&P 500 target and whether equity markets will continue to push through policy and Fed uncertainty. It also comes amid European Union envoys getting ready to meet to formulate a plan for measures to respond to a possible no-deal scenario with US President Trump. The US is now seen to want a near-universal tariff on EU goods higher than 10%, with limited exemptions, according to people familiar with the matter.2) Bob Michele, CIO: Fixed Income at JPMorgan Asset Management, talks about whether the Fed's right to keep monetary policy unchanged and what the full impact of tariffs will be on US companies. Meanwhile, a new theory from Wall Street is zeroing in on a possible dismissal of Fed Chair Jay Powell. The theory behind this "macro trade" is that a new Fed chair would be more likely to fall in line with Trump's lobbying for lower interest rates, pushing down short-term yields and driving yields on long-term debt higher.3) Frank Lee, Global Head of Tech Hardware and Semiconductor Research, talks about AI investment, the outlook for semiconductors, and the sustainability of CapEx growth for AI hyperscalers. 4) Jordan Rochester, Head: FICC Macro Strategy EMEA, joins to discuss the dollar-yen trade after the Japanese Prime Minister's election setback this weekend. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba says he must fulfill his responsibility to the nation and its people as the biggest party in parliament. Ishiba raised the US trade talks, inflation, and security environment as pressing issues that must not be left to stagnate due to political instability.5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including WSJ's story on Amazon quietly raised prices on low-cost products since President Trump's tariff announcement, as well as Business Insider's story on the 'Gen Z stare.'See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

21 Juli 43min

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. In this episode, we feature conversations with Wei Li & Anna Wong. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACFSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

18 Juli 4min

- Christopher Waller, Member-Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve- Paul Atkins, Chairman of the SEC- Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs- Sonal Desai, CIO: Fixed Income at Franklin Templeton Christopher Waller, Member-Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve, joins for a discussion on Fed rate cuts and Fed independence. Paul Atkins, Chairman of the SEC, discusses regulation and the recent Stablecoin bill. Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, talks about the outlook for global and US equities amid an uncertain inflation and policy path. Sonal Desai, CIO: Fixed Income at Franklin Templeton, discusses warnings signals from the bond market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

18 Juli 41min

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJuly 18th, 2025Featuring:1) Wei Li, Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock, joins for an extended discussion about the outlook for inflation and global growth as well as US equity bullishness. Global equities extended their advance on Friday as growing confidence in the resilience of the US economy and upbeat earnings lent fresh support to risk sentiment.2) Ted Koenig, Chairman and CEO at Monroe Capital, brings us into the market open and discusses private credit and the overall credit outlook. Cross-asset moves come at the end of a week marked by market jitters over speculation that President Donald Trump might fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Equity gains reflected strong economic data and optimism that US companies will post robust second-quarter figures, helping to soothe uncertainty stirred by Trump’s tariff war.3) Brandon Ogelnski, Airlines Analyst at Barclays, discusses the airline industry and his outlook for American airliners. It comes as United Airlines said the second half of the year has become more predictable and suggested it may be able to beat its earnings targets after customers resumed booking flights.4) Rohit Chopra, former Director at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, joins for a discussion on his role before dismissal and recent CFPB and Fed independence news. Top bosses at some of Wall Street’s biggest banks emphasized the importance of an independent Federal Reserve as the long-running saga between President Trump and central bank Chair Jerome Powell intensified.Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan and Goldman Sachs' David Solomon joined JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon in stressing the importance of the Fed’s autonomy.5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a Business Insider story on Goldman Sachs retaining junior talent and a WSJ story on birthday freeloaders.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

18 Juli 40min

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. In this episode, we feature conversations with Glenn Hubbard & Frances Donald. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACFSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

17 Juli 4min

- Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo- Jim Bullard, Dean: Purdue University Business School- Jim DeMare, President: Global Markets at Bank of America- Scott Kirby, United Airlines CEOTorsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, discusses his recent notes on the US economy and AI and also discusses Fed independence. Jim Bullard, Dean: Purdue University Business School, talks about the importance of Federal Reserve independence and his path for rate cuts. Jim DeMare, President: Global Markets at Bank of America, discusses the health of the US economy and global economies, as well as the global inflation outlook. Scott Kirby, United Airlines CEO, discusses earnings and the outlook for the airlines industry.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

17 Juli 39min

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJuly 17th, 2025Featuring:1) Glenn Hubbard, Dean Emeritus at Columbia Business School, talks supply side economics and how it's been put into practice by the Trump administration as well as the impact of Fed independence on the US economy. President Trump said he would send letters to more than 150 countries notifying them their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%. Trump said the rate would "be probably 10 or 15%, we haven’t decided yet" in an interview with Real America’s Voice.2) Lakshman Achuthan, COO and co-founder at ECRI, on his new, un-released research on a forward-looking, non consensus disinflation view. US Treasuries rose for the first time in a week after better-than-estimated producer prices data soothed fears that tariff-stoked inflation will push back Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.3) Dana Telsey, CEO and Chief Research Officer at Telsey Advisory Group, parses through today's retail sales figures.4) Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC, on the US labor market and Fed independence concerns. President Trump said he's not planning to fire Jerome Powell, but added that he doesn't rule out anything, unless Powell has to leave for fraud. Trump's comments came after he ran the idea of sacking Powell by a receptive group of Republican lawmakers, and an aide said he was likely to follow through. Trump's pressure campaign against Powell is rooted in his view that the Fed is keeping interest rates too high, and he has begun the search for a successor, with his term as chair ending next May.5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on whether diamonds are luxury anymore and Bloomberg's report that cinemas are considering a launch of a large screen brand to challenge Imax.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

17 Juli 37min

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. In this episode, we feature conversations with David Malpass & Amanda Lynam. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACFSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

16 Juli 4min