Ep 132. Why Backgammon Can Help us Order the Disorder

In this episode, Jason and Alex answer some questions from our mega orderers. They discuss: the ICC’s role as an ordering institution and its controversial positions on Israel/Palestine; the difference lens and standards through which we need to view elected vs. unelected Disorderers; and why the West can’t compromise with any of Putin’s demands – or even negotiate with him – but needs to exhibit ironclad resolve in backing Ukraine’s willingness to fight.     Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/       Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Read Full Text of ICC Application for Arrest Warrants https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-of-icc-prosecutor-karim-khans-application-for-arrest-warrants/     Listen to our episode with Bill Browder, Ep26. Was Alexei Navalny a Martyr for Democracy? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece   Hear our episode with Evgenia Kara Murza, Ep23. Is the democratic world morally responsible for allowing Putin's rise? With Evgenia Kara-Murza https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/8eff8cc4caece2708249ee7bec567ad8   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

8 Aug 202436min

In part 2 of our discussion with Jamie Metzl, author of Superconvergence, Jaime tells Jason about his idea for creating a new global body tasked with regulated existential risks. Jaime is a super order who sees most of the threats facing humanity as fundamentally linked and wishes to adopt one coherent and coordinated approach to Order the Disorder. Trying to unpick how such regulation could be done, Jamie, Jason and Alex each analyse the differences between an American and European approach to regulating new industries.     Alex and Jason close the episode by proposing how the EU could use its trading might to incentivize global co-ordination on issues like climate change and AI.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/       Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Mega-order Jamie’s book, Superconvergence, at https://superconvergencebook.com For more on Jamie’s unbelievable career: https://jamiemetzl.com And his novel ‘Eternal Sonata’: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28695898-eternal-sonata   And his theories and extensive public engagement about the origins of COVID-19: https://jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

6 Aug 202449min

Advanced biotech (CRISPR gene editing, gene drives, personalized medicine) could be the most Disordering technology ever invented. Techniques like gene drives could help us eradicate malaria by sterilising mosquitoes, but could they also spell the end of humanity (by unleashing unintended consequences)? Or release a new pandemic – think COVID-19 which was likely caused by a lab lead of a manmade super virus – into the population?    While biotech offers the potential to revolutionise everything, no one has yet proposed any coherent regulations over this domain. Seeking to learn more about advances in Biotech and how they interact with AI, globalization, and climate change we are joined by Jamie Metzl. Jamie is the author of Superconvergence, and Founder and Chair of the global social movement, OneShared.World. He and Jason discuss the vast opportunities and profound threats that emanate from biotech. Jason puts forth a more socially conservative vision that we need to learn from our collective past, what Jason calls the ‘French-peasant’ approach, while Jaime poopoos that approach advancing more boldly futuristic solutions.    To Order the Disorder, Jason and Alex discuss whether top-down or bottom-up governance solutions could help solve this issue, and what we need to do to regain the public’s trust in experts.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/       Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Mega-order Jamie’s book, Superconvergence, at https://superconvergencebook.com/   For more on Jamie’s unbelievable career: https://jamiemetzl.com/   And his novel ‘Eternal Sonata’: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28695898-eternal-sonata   And his theories and extensive public engagement about the origins of COVID-19: https://jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

30 Juli 202450min

The Economist called Tunisia a “light unto the Arab nations” just a decade ago, yet it may soon be fading into darkness. We talk with Tunisia’s Leading Opposition Presidential Candidate, Olfa Hamdi, to find out why.    Amidst this biggest year of elections in human history, the Tunisian election (initially scheduled for July 25 and now pushed back to October 6) has been largely forgotten in the mainstream media and even ignored by western policymakers. Yet, the dynamics at play in neo-populism’s current ascendancy in Tunisia – fear of migrants, coordination failures on behalf of Western allies, as well as Chinese and Russian meddling – are a perfect microcosm of the key aspects of Enduring Disorder elsewhere.    On the pod, Jason is joined by Tunisian Presidential candidate Olfa Hamdi: the founder and leader of the Third Republic Party of Tunisia and former CEO and Chairwoman of the Tunisian National Airline Tunisair. She and Jason investigate: the return of communism in Tunisia; President Qais Saied’s foreign policy alignment with Russia and China; pressures emanating from the southern border of NATO; Europe’s loss of the moral high ground, and the larger topics of the western foreign policy towards the Arab world and the battle to uphold democratic norms and checks and balances throughout the world.     Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/       Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Olfa Hamdi Announces 2024 Presidential Campaign in Tunisia: https://www.newswire.com/news/olfa-hamdi-announces-2024-presidential-campaign-in-tunisia-22169766  Tunisia’s Backsliding Democracy Turns on Migrants: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/02/tunisia-elections-saied-ghannouchi-eu-migration-deal/   Tunisia abandons two-state solution; courts Iran, China, and Russia: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tunisia-abandons-two-state-solution-courts-iran-china-and-russia Tunisia: Joint Statement Calling for End to Crackdown: https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/06/18/tunisia-joint-statement-calling-end-crackdown   Tunisia's 2024 election: What role will migration play?  https://www.dw.com/en/tunisias-2024-election-what-role-will-migration-play/a-67736521  Young Tunisians Don’t Trust Kais Saied Anymore: https://www.dw.com/en/tunisias-2024-election-what-role-will-migration-play/a-67736521   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

25 Juli 202448min

Legend has it that when King George III heard that George Washington, had decided to retire after his second term, he remarked: “If he does that, he will be the greatest man in the world.” On July 21, 2024, Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. can justifiably claim to have done one of the most heroic acts in human history.  Jason may be quoting the Guardian article (whose link is further down in the shownotes), but he is not exaggerating.    Few people voluntarily leave supreme power. Popes, Ayatollah, Presidents, Supreme Court Justices, and Dictators largely do not step down. They either die in office or lose power. Power is too addictive and seductive.  Biden has stepped down and may go do in history as a modern-day Cincinnatus. He avoided the Ruth Bader Ginsburg trap. Yes, it might have been better had it happened sooner and in a more choreographed fashion rather than Adam Schiff and George Clooney having to pull him off stage left with a cane.  Yet, better late than never.      On this Emergency cast: Jason and Alex discuss where they were when they heard this momentous news; the bizarre oddities of the recent Republican National Convention; Trump’s selection of J D Vance as his running mate; the protectionist/America-first agenda of the Trump/Vance ticket; and how the Dems can now try to order the disorder globally and domestically but weaving a new narrative.      Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/       Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Biden’s selfless decision to drop out sets stage for an entirely different election: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/21/biden-decision-drop-analysis     Nicholas Kristof: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/09/opinion/thepoint#biden-drop-out-meaning    Alexandra Hall Hall’s recent Byline Times article: ‘Assassination Attempts and the Rise of the Right – Amid the Turmoil, Britain is Emerging as a Steadying Force’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/19/assassination-attempts-and-the-rise-of-the-right-amid-the-turmoil-britain-is-emerging-as-a-steadying-force/     Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

22 Juli 202446min

A week ago today, NATO wrapped up its 75th anniversary summit. At the event genuine  support of Ukraine was on full display. Discussion of how to Trump-proof NATO dominated the agenda, partnerships with NATO’s southern periphery were side stepped and the war in Gaza was largely ignored. All of this was choreographed to project unity and paper over disagreements within the alliance. But do such optics actually help to Order the Disorder?    To find out we’re joined by Jane Kinninmont – who was in Washington at the Summit. She tells Jason about the discussions on the margins of the summit – mostly about Joe Biden – and the glaring omission from the formal agenda: the Israel-Gaza conflict. She also shares a live-show discussion among her; Élie Tenenbaum, the Director of IFRI’s Security Studies Centre in Paris, just back from a mission to Kyiv; and Dr. Isabelle Werenfels, a senior fellow at the German think tank SWP. The trio opine on their impressions of the summit, the key announcements on Ukraine (which were quite minimal), the role of Spain in raising the Gaza issue, and what a Trump presidency might mean for NATO.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    “Trump-proofing NATO” has been one of the buzzwords around this summit. The BBC covers the issue here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3gr90jnxjvo     The NATO summit’s official communique is here: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227678.htm     Jane, Isabelle and Élie were all members of an independent experts group appointed by the NATO Secretary-General to contribute ideas on NATO’s approach to the Middle East and Africa, some of which were picked up in the summit communique. The expert group report can be found here: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2024/5/pdf/240507-NATO-South-Report.pdf     Jane and Isabelle wrote a version of the report here as a policy brief for SWP: https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2024C25/     Elie’s most recent study on the military situation in Ukraine can be found here: https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/politique-etrangere/articles-de-politique-etrangere/military-stakes-war-ukraine   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

18 Juli 202435min

In bye gone moons, Trump inadvertently quoted Ralf Waldo Emerson, “When you strike at the King, you must kill him.” Yet on Saturday July 13, Donald Trump survived an attempt to gun him down at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. Will this be one of those pivotal moments which go down in history - like the assassination of Lincoln; of Archduke Franz Ferdinand; JFK, RFK, or MLK? Or will it be like with Gavrilo Princip’s predecessors, assassins are only remembered if they succeed. Others tried to assassinate the Archduke and History won't remember them because they missed.     Alex and Jason predict that Thomas Matthew Crooks will not be a household name for long and the impact he will have on history is likely very much the opposite of what he might have intended. Alex shares how she felt while hearing the news at a baseball tournament, while Jason shares his experience hearing the news from Saltsjoboden at the Swedish Open of backgammon. Professional gamblers noted to Jason that after the assassination attempt that the betting markets moved instantly in favour of Trump, even more so than after Biden’s poor debate performance.    As always Jason and Alex try to order the disorder by discussing the messianic narratives around Trump and how his supporters always viewed him as a perennial victim/martyr. Now having survived this attempt on his life, it seems likely that his saintliness and blessedness in their eyes will morph into a kind of hagiography. We conclude by discussing how the Democrats could use this moment to try to rally the country together around a new kind of unifying vision.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    JD Vance selected as Trump’s running mate: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-announces-ohio-senator-j-d-vance-his-2024-running-mate     Many high profile figures believe that surviving the assassination attempt makes Trump’s re-election a done deal: https://www.euronews.com/culture/2024/07/15/the-election-is-over-celebrities-react-to-donald-trump-assassination-attempt     Trump says he will announce VP pick: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/15/us/trump-rnc-news-biden     For More on the Republican convention:   As Alex mentioned: Judge dismisses classified documents case against Trump: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/15/us/trump-documents-case-dismissed    Alistair and Rory on how the Assassination attempt will affect the US election and how Rory survived an Assassination attempt against him in Iraq: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0OwsWUbmOw   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

16 Juli 202433min

NATO is the longest lasting and most successful military alliance in human history. Today NATOs 75th Summit in Washington, DC comes to a close. What can NATO’s past tell us about  its probably future?     To commemorate this symbolic occasion, Jason is joined by Peter Apps. He is the author of ‘Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO’, a global defence columnist for Reuters, and a British Army reservist. He has reported from more than 20 countries over two decades, despite being paralyzed in a frontline car crash in Sri Lanka in 2006.     Jason and Peter discuss: Lord Ismay’s dictum; how has the Ukraine war affected the alliance?; how important are personalities to the alliance and how it works?; and how can NATO’s history, institutional biography, and legacy of diplomatic flexibility shed some light on how it might respond to the unprecedented challenges around it — from the rise of the far right in National Rally in France, the AfD in Germany, to the spectre of Trump — and the challenges posed to NATO by Putin, Xi, climate change, AI, and misinformation.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Peter’s book Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO: the "astonishingly fine history" of the world's most successful military alliance https://www.amazon.co.uk/Deterring-Armageddon-Biography-astonishingly-successful/dp/103540575X     Listen to Disorder Ep6. NATO: A Model for Ordering the Disorder? with Kori Shacke, Timothy Garton Ash, Jamie Shea and Charles Kupchan: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/9472a8b7d262dd9fb0cd9827e8947964     About the NATO Defense College Foundation: https://www.natofoundation.org/about-us  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

11 Juli 202440min