Ep 132. Why Backgammon Can Help us Order the Disorder

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the West initiated the most comprehensive economic war in human history. The US, EU, and UK announced a range of well-coordinated sanctions against Russia which included export restrictions, freezing assets, excluding the Russian Central Bank from SWIFT, and banning flights. It was an example of transcending the Enduring Disorder with the main Western powers working together seamlessly.    But seen in hindsight were these effective? Did they degrade Russia’s fighting capacity? Does kicking a state out of the globalized economy actually hit Disordering states, like Putin’s Russia or Iran, where it hurts? Do they help avoid future aggression? Or do they facilitate the rise of a ‘Disorderer’s Club’ where sanctioned autocracies merely trade with each other and form common cause against the West?    In this’ investigative’ episode of Disorder, Jason Pack is joined by Bloomberg journalist, Stephanie Baker, author of ‘Punishing Putin: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia.’ The pair explore different theories of whether economic integration prevents wars, the effectiveness of sanctions, the fear of blowback, the role of oligarchs in Putin's regime, and the impact of the novel $60 a barrel ‘oil price cap’ on Russia's economy. Plus: as they Order the Disorder, they look at whether methods like the oil price cap could be used to deter Iran, the need for a coordinated international response (which includes players like the UAE), and how targeting Putin’s access to high-end semi-conductors could help undermine his authoritarian power.    Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus Ep67. ‘Dictators’ Disordering Quest for Internal Security’: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e     Listen to our episode with Tom Burgis which sheds light on why authoritarian states outsource their economic functions and corruption: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e003625c25e8ce63dda398369bfea54b     For more on Stephanie visit: https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/     Get Stephanie’s book, Punishing Putin: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Punishing-Putin/Stephanie-Baker/9781668050583     Readna review of Punishing Putin: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/13/punishing-putin-review-us-economic-sanctions-russia-war-ukraine/     Read more from Stephanie on how Seizing a Russian Superyacht is much more complicated than you think: https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/stories-archive/russian-oligarch-s-seized-yachts-are-costing-tax-payers-millions     And for some amusement amidst all the seriousness, Read ‘Giuliani Has Curious Links to a Jewish Village in Ukraine’ by Stephanie https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/stories-archive/guiliani-link-to-jewish-village-ukraine   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

17 Okt 20241h 6min

What can games of skill and chance, of risk and reward – like Poker and Backgammon– teach diplomats, policymakers, and interested participants about how to Order the Disorder?    In this episode, Jason Pack is joined by the former #1 Giant of Backgammon, Wilcox Snellings. In the 1990s, he was considered by his peers to be the best player in the world. The duo discuss: Wilcox’s upbringing, New York’s gambling culture, the milieu of high stakes gambling and its myriad lessons for confronting disorder with probabilistic calculations.    The duo explore how concepts of expected value and game theory, which underpin modern economics, derive from gambling. They also explore the concepts popularized by Nate Silver in his new book 'On the Edge', which focuses on the dichotomy between ‘the River’ (i.e. the community of risk takers) and ‘the village’ (i.e. the community of PC, play-it-safe, left-leaning establishment elites). Wilcox and Jason explore how today’s crop of political leaders often fail to utilize the principles of risk vs reward calculations and fail to grasp inherent causal connections when making decisions. In the Ordering the Disorder section, Wilcox and Jason link the failure of left and centrist politicians in tackling the challenges of campaign finance, taxation equity, and income inequality to their risk averseness.     If you enjoyed this episode and want to hear its partner episode with Sander Lylloff the 2022 World Champion of Backgammon Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Next week that special bonus episode will drop only on the Substack.    Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Listen to the World’s current number 1 Giant of Backgammon Mochy talking to Jason’s friend Etan Ilfeld: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-etan-ilfeld-podcast/id1500914118?i=1000671570803     Venture into online backgammon and amongst the stars on Backgammon Galaxy: https://www.backgammongalaxy.com/     For another more personal interview about Wilcox’s life: https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=Wilcox+Snellings&mid=801C99A1E7F69963E00A801C99A1E7F69963E00A&FORM=VIRE       Read more about Nate Silver’s book https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/09/09/on-the-edge-the-art-of-risking-everything-nate-silver-book-review    And a fairly cogent critique of Silver’s book:   https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/20/on-the-edge-book-review-nate-silver-risk/     Read Jason’s article written in Dubai three years ago about Backgammon, peace making, and the Abraham Accords: https://www.mei.edu/publications/personal-vantage-point-gamble-abraham-accords-dubais-first-international-backgammon     Watch Jason Play a commentated tournament backgammon live from Dubai starting at 3:51:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzDxx1yG78o     Listen to current world number 1, Mochy on Backgammon and Life on the Etan Ilfeld Podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-etan-ilfeld-podcast/id1500914118?i=1000671570803   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

15 Okt 202436min

(This episode flows from Ep 73 Part I: Commemorating the October 7 Massacre – please listen to it first if you have not.) In this second part of our series recapping a year of the Israel-Hamas War, Jason and Sir Vincent Fean (former British Consul General in Jerusalem and former Chairman of the Balfour Project) pivot their discussion to the current state of Palestinian political institutions, the Palestinian question on the international diplomatic stage; international legal rulings against Israel’s occupation; Britain’s historic role in the Palestine question and its ensuing responsibilities to the Palestinians; the actions of Sir Keir’s government to bring about Palestinian statehood; and the longer term implications of the current conflict for the future of the Middle East and the world.     Both Jason and Sir Vincent argue that it is impossible to Order the Disorder globally on issues like climate change without tackling the Middle East head on. This episode is both a heartbreaker and a must-listen.      For more on Israel-Gaza-Lebanon-Iran and the state of our Disordered world, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    On the impact of recognising a Palestinian state: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn44j1njggjo     For more on the Balfour Project: https://balfourproject.org/#:~:text=-%20Balfour%20Project.%20Peace%20with%20justice,%20security%20and     On Bibi, Hizbollah, Yahya Sinwar and Hamas’ attempts to truly destroy Israel: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/israel-vs-hamas-hezbollah-iran-and-itself/id1548604447?i=1000670150284     On the economic impacts of one year of war on the region and the globe: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a-year-to-the-war-in-gaza/id1584397047?i=1000671757710  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

8 Okt 202437min

A year ago today, the Middle East and the world changed forever. Hamas terrorists and Gazan civilians broke through the Gaza border fence into Israel and began massacring over a thousand Israelis and taking hundreds of hostages. A few weeks later, Israel began an aerial bombardment campaign and ground occupation of Gaza that has caused tens of thousands of casualties, leveled most of Gaza’s buildings, and seems to have no end in sight. To support Hamas, Hizbollah began firing missiles into Northern Israel from southern Lebanon, even before the Israeli incursion in Gaza began. This has recently led to Israeli decapitation strikes against Hizbollah’s leadership and an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon.    To mark the sober anniversary of October 7, Jason Pack is joined by Sir Vincent Fean. Over the course of a long and distinguished diplomatic career, Sir Vincent was British Consul General in Jerusalem – which is essentially Britain’s Ambassador to the Palestinians. Currently, Sir Vincent urges the British government to recognise a Palestinian state via his role as trustee and former Chairman of The Balfour Project, an NGO.    In this first part of a two-part episode, Jason and Sir Vincent seek to shine light on a few interrelated topics: firstly to provide an overview of the last year of tragedy, violence, and death in the Middle East; to unpick Israeli military strategy or lack thereof, to contextualize the vast humanitarian suffering of Gazan and West Bank Palestinians; to situate the Oct 7 attacks in the long continuum of Jewish persecution; and examine the re-emergence of previously dormant forms of conspiratorial antisemitism around the world. Please join us tomorrow for Part II of the discussion btw Jason and Sir Vincent.    For more on Israel-Gaza-Lebanon-Iran and the state of our Disordered world, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    A quick factual overview from Deutsche Welle on the October 7th attacks and the ensuing year of violence: https://www.dw.com/en/october-7-hamas-attacks-on-israel-a-year-later/a-70399696#:~:text=On%20October%207,%202023,%20Hamas,%20the%20Palestinian%20militant     A more detailed strategic look at what happened on October 7th: https://www.csis.org/analysis/hamas-october-7-attack-tactics-targets-and-strategy-terrorists#:~:text=Hamas%20fighters%20killed%20an%20estimated%201,400%20Israelis,%20largely     On the Nova Massacre and Oct 7th videos: https://time.com/6565186/october-7-hamas-attack-footage-film/     Listen back to ep on ICC Verdict: Ep24. What does South Africa stand to gain from accusing Israel of Genocide in Gaza? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/7a0930e7d9052f19cd7072d72214edfb      UNRWA Imperiled by Terrorism Charges: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/29/world/middleeast/unrwa-israel-gaza-terrorism.html    On Bibi, Hizbollah, Yahya Sinwar and Hamas’ attempts to truly destroy Israel: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/israel-vs-hamas-hezbollah-iran-and-itself/id1548604447?i=1000670150284   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

7 Okt 202452min

Tuesday night’s vice-presidential debate between Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz was a breath of fresh air in some ways. The discussion was civil, with Vance in particular attempting to present himself as reasonable. But hiding underneath the crisp suit, eloquent banter, and agreeable disagreements, is a Disorderer, who could become President in 2028, if not sooner.    In this special episode focusing on the VP debate, and the threat Vance presents to democracy, Alex Hall Hall is joined by Greg Olear, host of the Prevail podcast and author of ‘Rough Beast: Who Donald Trump Really Is, What He’ll Do if Re-Elected, and Why Democracy Must Prevail.’    The pair analyze the implications of the debate for the upcoming election, the role of media in shaping public perception, and the potential threats posed by Vance's political agenda. Plus to Order the Disorder, Alex and Greg delve into the need for the Democrats to communicate effectively.    For more on the ongoing US Presidential race, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Vance and Walz stick to policy in polite VP debate - but who won? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y0863ry88o     CBS cut mics and fact-checked JD Vance in a more civil VP debate, drawing the ire of Trump and his allies: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/02/media/vance-walz-debate-cbs-moderators-fact-check/index.html     Listen to Greg’s podcast Prevail at https://pod.link/1553506699     Read his Substack Prevail at https://gregolear.substack.com/     Get his book Rough Beast: Who Donald Trump Really Is, What He’ll Do if Re-Elected, and Why Democracy Must Prevail https://www.amazon.com/Rough-Beast-Re-Elected-Democracy-Prevail-ebook/dp/B0D4MS1D25   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

3 Okt 202448min

Over the weekend, Israel confirmed that they had killed Hezbollah’s charismatic leader – and terrorist master mind --  Hassan Nasrallah. He was frequently described as the leader of the globe’s most powerful non-state armed group.  So, what does Nasrallah’s exit from the stage and the ongoing Israeli bombardment of Lebanon, mean for the region? Amidst the humanitarian crisis and vast escalatory pressures, how can we Order the Disorder?     To find out, Arthur Snell and Jane Kinninmont recorded a special bonus episode of the podcast. The duo discuss: the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Iran – examining the motivations of both parties. They analyse Netanyahu's political manoeuvring, the complexities of Lebanon's political/sectarian landscape, and the potential for diplomatic solutions amidst the chaos. Plus, they dissect the challenges faced by the international community in addressing the crisis and the implications for US influence in the region, as they try and Order the Disorder.    For more on the fast moving situation across Lebanon and the wider region, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Listen to Arthur Snell’s podcast Behind The Lines: https://shows.acast.com/65196b0b1488340011cf14a1     Read Tom Fletcher’s (a former guest from Episode Ep10. How international actors can stabilize the ongoing Israel-Hamas War and prevent a regional escalation - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/cd7401e8093b8bb8f10c639a30db226c) piece on what’s next for the region: https://www.ft.com/content/f78a4277-8f94-40c4-a4d4-6c0bde361ecb     Read Michael Young’s Twitter Thread on the latest: https://x.com/beirutcalling/status/1840008152336527715?s=46     More on the moving situation in Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/     Read this really insightful bio of Hassan Nasrallah by Hassan Hassan (from Syria) and Karim Shaheen in New Lines magazine - https://newlinesmag.com/argument/end-of-an-era-what-hassan-nasrallahs-assassination-spells-for-the-middle-east/     Read this article by Michael Young (@beirutcalling) which covers both the regional risks and the domestic political implications - https://carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/diwan/2024/09/israel-has-assassinated-the-secretary-general-of-hezbollah-hassan-nasrallah?lang=en&center=middle-east   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

1 Okt 202446min

‘Peak Disorder’ is Jason’s coinage for: the democratic world’s inability to exert ordering capacity to respond to new challenges except if they are existentially pressing because we are simply too divided, distracted, and overtaxed by existing crises. This phenomenon of ‘peak disorder’ is epitomized over the last two months by events in Bangladesh.     Bangladesh’s embattled prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, fled the country on Aug 5, 2024, after a brutal government crackdown against protests had resulted in hundreds of deaths. The country’s president, the armed forces, and political parties selected a temporary “caretaker” government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The key opposition party the BNP has accepted the transition. However, some factions in the country are upset with the nature of the caretaker government’s reforms and the slow progress towards elections.   Bangladesh is a country with strong economic potential and many opportunities for progress, but its transition from corrupt populism/creeping authoritarianism back to democracy needs to be aided by outside economic help and by being insulated from disordering geopolitical rivalries. Bangladesh’s transition is unfolding amidst Peak Disorder. This makes it very fraught. To delve deeper into events in Bangladesh and what they say about ‘Peak Disorder’, Jason is joined by Michael Kugelman the Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre.    To get more background information and perspective about this very complex topic pleasure join our substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/      Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links:  Michael’s sterling interview with The Daily Star that gets into the geopolitics of the situation:  https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/geopolitical-insights/news/the-geopolitics-sheikh-hasinas-fall-explained-3676511  Michael’s bio: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/person/michael-kugelman   For a real concise takes on the facts of what has happened in Bangladesh:  https://theconversation.com/bangladeshs-protests-explained-what-led-to-pms-ouster-and-the-challenges-that-lie-ahead-236190  A good overview podcast by ABC (Australia) about how we got to where we are now which also interviews Michael Kugelman:  https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/rearvision/bangladesh-politics-and-the-business-of-remembering/104180756  And for an update on the current state of play in Bangladesh and what might lie ahead:  https://apnews.com/article/bangladesh-yunus-hasina-khaleda-zia-election-3525d4c39c748a974f67b62efadb23b9  And for the conceptual take on how Tyrants rise and fall revisit Ep 67 with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

26 Sep 202453min

What does getting kidnapped in Mexico City have in common with taking Western backpackers on tours of North Korean? Each provides key insights into the disordering essence of how autocracies function and why symbolism is important to dictatorial securocrats. This rather chatty episode builds off of our more academic and systematic look at similar themes in “Dictators’ Disordering Quest for Internal Security” with Marcel Dirsus last Tuesday in episode 67.    In this episode, Jason is joined by the host of The Jordan Harbinger Show. The pair discuss: how Jordan got kidnapped (and Jason shares his own tale of being kidnapped in Syria and Lebanon); what life is really like in North Korea; why symbols matter so much in dictatorships; the psychology of Xi Jinping; how to deter China from invading Taiwan; why dictators are so fragile and touchy about being made to look bad; and how campaign finance reform could help us order the disorder.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  To listen to Jordan’s show visit https://www.jordanharbinger.com/  Check out his episode ‘A Divorce Lawyer’s Guide to Lasting Love Part One’ here: https://www.jordanharbinger.com/james-sexton-a-divorce-lawyers-guide-to-lasting-love-part-one/   And our previous episode with Marcel Dirsus on the innerworkings of Tyrannies here: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

24 Sep 202448min