SI358: Why the Best Trend Models Might Be the Simplest Ones ft. Tom Wrobel & Andrew Beer

SI358: Why the Best Trend Models Might Be the Simplest Ones ft. Tom Wrobel & Andrew Beer

Andrew Beer and Tom Wroble return to join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a timely examination of how trend following is adapting, and why some say it may be losing its edge. Tom unpacks new research showing a quiet drift toward slower models, raising the question of whether CTAs are evolving or converging. Andrew pushes back on the prevailing wisdom around diversification, suggesting that complexity often obscures cost rather than delivering true value. From shifting model speeds to the incentives shaping manager behavior, this is a conversation about what trend following is becoming... and what investors risk overlooking as some strategies grow more complex in pursuit of outperformance.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:52 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:11 - Industry performance update

07:44 - Wrobel's perspective on the current CTA environment

09:32 - Key findings from Wrobel's recent paper

14:51 - The shape is key for managing risk

17:26 - How changes in the underlying managers affect replication strategies

22:10 - Is there such a thing as a happy "medium" in trading speed?

28:09 - Are replication strategies less challenged when selecting markets?

33:35 - The structure of an allocator

36:12 - How much tracking error is acceptable in...

Avsnitt(907)

SI365: Design or Luck: Why Trend Following Results Diverge ft. Katy Kaminski

SI365: Design or Luck: Why Trend Following Results Diverge ft. Katy Kaminski

Katy Kaminski returns to explore why results in trend following rarely look alike, even when the rules sound the same. Using fresh research from Man Group and Quantica, she and Niels trace the fingerp...

13 Sep 202555min

GM87: Who Really Sets Policy Now? ft. Anna Wong

GM87: Who Really Sets Policy Now? ft. Anna Wong

Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist at Bloomberg, joins Alan Dunne with a clear-eyed assessment of where policy and politics are headed. As markets bet on cuts and the Fed talks balance, she sees a differ...

10 Sep 20251h 4min

SI364: What makes an Alternative Investment Truly Valuable? ft. Moritz Seibert

SI364: What makes an Alternative Investment Truly Valuable? ft. Moritz Seibert

What makes an alternative investment truly valuable? In this episode, Moritz Siebert joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation that moves past market moves and into the core design of systematic ...

6 Sep 20251h 11min

IL41: They’re Not Just Reading You... They’re Rewriting You ft. Sandra Matz

IL41: They’re Not Just Reading You... They’re Rewriting You ft. Sandra Matz

What if knowing you isn’t the end goal... but shaping you is? In this episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with Columbia professor Sandra Matz about how algorithms trained on our clicks, searches, and faces...

3 Sep 20251h

SI363: The Misreading of Trend ft. Nick Baltas

SI363: The Misreading of Trend ft. Nick Baltas

As trend following begins to reassert itself, Niels and Nick Baltas dig beneath the surface of recent CTA performance - where the signals are working, why fixed income remains unresolved, and how spee...

30 Aug 20251h

OI18: The Carbon Trade, Without the Illusion ft. Mike Azlen

OI18: The Carbon Trade, Without the Illusion ft. Mike Azlen

Mike Azlen joins Moritz Seibert for a frank look at carbon markets, and why much of what passes for climate action may be making things worse. While offsets dominate headlines, it's the regulated mark...

27 Aug 202547min

SI362: The Alpha Most Systems Miss ft. Yoav Git

SI362: The Alpha Most Systems Miss ft. Yoav Git

Yoav Git and Alan Dunne sits down for a conversation that challenges familiar assumptions about curve trading, market structure, and the role of CTAs. They explore why dislocations across time horizon...

23 Aug 20251h 7min

GM86: Everyone’s Watching the Fed. The Real Story’s Somewhere Else. ft. Louis Vincent-Gave

GM86: Everyone’s Watching the Fed. The Real Story’s Somewhere Else. ft. Louis Vincent-Gave

Louis-Vincent Gave returns with a blunt assessment of a global order fraying at key seams. Construction is stalling. Trade policy is adrift. Capital is retreating from the U.S. And yet, markets hum al...

20 Aug 202559min

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