575: Ex McKinsey Expert on War Games, John Horn: How to Read Your Competitors (Strategy Skills classics)

575: Ex McKinsey Expert on War Games, John Horn: How to Read Your Competitors (Strategy Skills classics)

John Horn, professor of economics at Washington University's Olin Business School and former McKinsey strategist, shares a disciplined framework for understanding competitive behavior by applying game theory and structured simulations. In this episode, he explains how companies can elevate competitor analysis from basic intelligence gathering to actionable strategic insight.

Horn begins by debunking the common misconception that many competitors behave irrationally. As he puts it:

“Every single time a client said the competitor is irrational, I could ask them... two, three questions which would explain... why the company was being rational in what they were doing.”

He outlines a four-step framework leaders can use to model likely competitive behavior:

  1. Observe what competitors say and do, including press releases, earnings calls, and other public data.

  2. Assess their assets, resources, and capabilities, and imagine what you'd do in their position.

  3. Identify the decision-maker and their background to infer how they think:

“If you grew up as a marketer and you became a CEO, you’re going to look at the world from a marketing perspective.”

  1. Make a short-term prediction, write it down, and revisit it:

“It becomes a virtuous cycle of getting a better insight into how that competitor thinks.”

Horn emphasizes that many firms fall short because they stop at step one or lack mechanisms to feed deeper insights into decision-making. He also stresses the role of empathy—not sympathy—in strategy:

“I do have to empathize, understand why they’re making the choices they make.”

War gaming, in Horn's view, is a powerful simulation tool, not theater.

“It’s a chance to practice business choices in a risk-free way... and just a much more realistic discussion.”

For entrepreneurs or under-resourced teams, Horn offers a lighter-weight version called "War Gaming Lite," which enables rapid, structured thinking about competitive responses using only internal knowledge and role-playing.

He also discusses how human biases, short-term incentives, and lack of time make both your firm and your rivals more predictable than you might think:

“People really are predictable... It’s not rocket science—it’s about being disciplined.”

Whether you're a startup founder or a Fortune 500 executive, this episode offers practical steps to improve your strategic foresight and competitive positioning, grounded in empathy, behavioral realism, and iterative prediction.

Get John’s book here: https://shorturl.at/6DOyh

Inside the Competitor's Mindset: How to Predict Their Next Move and Position Yourself for Success.

Here are some free gifts for you:

Overall Approach Used in Well-Managed Strategy Studies free download: www.firmsconsulting.com/OverallApproach

McKinsey & BCG winning resume free download: www.firmsconsulting.com/resumepdf

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97: The most important output in a consulting study | Management consulting project  | Benefits case

97: The most important output in a consulting study | Management consulting project  | Benefits case

An episode 96 of Strategy Skills iTunes podcast is here (Strategy Skills podcast is ranked among 5-10 top for careers in many countries worldwide).  One thing you always need to present in all of your management consulting projects is a business case. If you are not presenting a business case to a client, or a benefits case, I prefer the word benefits because it makes it clear you are looking for a benefit for a client, if you are not presenting a benefits case to a client you are making it very difficult for the client to make the decision to implement what you are saying in your recommendation as part of your management consulting project. www.FIRMSconsulting.com - optin for email updates to receive access to some episodes from our advanced #strategy programs.

21 Jan 202010min

96: "Are you undervaluing your customers?" with Bain & Company's Rob Markey

96: "Are you undervaluing your customers?" with Bain & Company's Rob Markey

Listen to this thought-provoking discussion between Michael and Rob Markey, Bain and Company's partner.  Rob Markey, a partner and director at Bain & Company and the founder of the firm’s Global Customer Strategy and Marketing practice. He is a co-author of The Ultimate Question 2.0 and is the host of the Net Promoter System podcast. He is based in New York. https://www.firmsconsulting.com/

14 Jan 20201h 9min

95: Value chain mapping | When value chain analysis are useful | Strategic management

95: Value chain mapping | When value chain analysis are useful | Strategic management

We have seen many value chain mapping examples. We have seen good value chain mapping, bad value chain mapping, incomplete value chain mapping. Ultimately, given the nature how value chain mapping will work, it can only do few things and it cannot do a few things. So if value chain mapping is presented to do things it cannot do it is flawed. When you do value chain analysis it is far more useful to see where profits are going to shift over time, that is one thing you have to do. Two, assign some probabilities of what are the odds of this happening. And 3, what influences those probabilities. You are analyzing the entire sector, the entire industry. A lot of things influencing a sector. Consumer spending can change with the recession. Recession can change things. Different legislation could cause profits move from point x to point y. Competitor making a misstep could cause it, new competitor entering, competitor going bankrupt. So whenever someone says I am so certain this will happen you should question their business judgement because you cannot predict the future. #valuechainmapping #valuechainanalysis #valuechainanalysisexplained https://www.firmsconsulting.com/

7 Jan 20209min

94: Design the value chain you need | Value chain analysis | Management consulting

94: Design the value chain you need | Value chain analysis | Management consulting

An episode 94 of Strategy Skills iTunes podcast is here (Strategy Skills podcast is ranked among 5-10 top for careers in many countries worldwide).  www.FIRMSconsulting.com - optin for email updates to receive access to some episodes from our advanced #strategy programs.

31 Dec 201917min

93: How to Manage Like Amazon (with CEO Advisor Ram Charan)

93: How to Manage Like Amazon (with CEO Advisor Ram Charan)

Every business wants to succeed like Amazon so we invited New York Times bestselling author & CEO Advisor Ram Charan to talk about How to Manage Like Amazon. From their high-velocity decision-making to their top talent hiring practices to their “Forever Day-1 Culture”, the insider secrets behind Amazon’s success are now within anyone’s grasp. Find out how Amazon does it and how you can too by listening to this fascinating conversation between Michael and Ram, whom Fortune calls “The most influential consultant alive” and whose book  Execution spent 150 weeks on the New York Times bestseller list. Ram's new book The Amazon Management System can be purchased here https://amzn.to/2RGGLy6 https://www.firmsconsulting.com

11 Dec 201951min

92: Senior partner at McKinsey & a global leader of their Organization Practice

92: Senior partner at McKinsey & a global leader of their Organization Practice

Meet Bill Schaninger, Senior Partner at McKinsey and a global leader of their Organization Practice (based in Philadelphia). Bill focuses on driving large-scale organizational and cultural change for clients across North America, Europe, and the Middle East. An expert on the role of culture, values, talent and leadership in improving business outcomes, he helps executives enhance management effectiveness. Bill has published extensively in practitioner and academic journals, on organizational topics. FIRMSconsulting.com - optin for email updates to receive access to selected episodes from our advanced training programs.

25 Okt 20191h 10min

91: How do I know what is corporate strategy

91: How do I know what is corporate strategy

An episode 91 of Strategy Skills iTunes podcast is here (Strategy Skills podcast is ranked among 5-10 top for careers in many countries worldwide).  www.FIRMSconsulting.com - optin for email updates to receive access to some episodes from our advanced #strategicmanagement programs.

24 Sep 20195min

90: What makes corporate strategy different

90: What makes corporate strategy different

You can find more training resources here: Get free access to selected episodes when you sign up for email updates: https://www.firmsconsulting.com Get Access to Firmsconsulting Training by Becoming a Member Here: https://www.firmsconsulting.com/subscription-options/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/firmsconsulting/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Firmsconsulting/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/firmsconsulting Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/firmsconsulting

21 Sep 20195min

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