Ukraine Russia: MORE WAR on the Way /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Col Jacques Baud

Col Jacques discusses recent diplomacy around the Russia–Ukraine war, focusing on Trump’s surprise decision to meet Putin in Anchorage (Alaska) instead of immediately imposing tariffs/secondary sanctions.

The colonel’s view: the Alaska meeting gave Trump direct, one-on-one clarity about the Russian position that earlier advisers hadn’t fully transmitted.

Russia’s stated preconditions (repeated since last June) are that Ukraine must abandon NATO membership and withdraw from four contested regions — these are presented as the starting point for a process that would make a ceasefire possible.

Russia sees a ceasefire as a tool within a broader negotiated process; many Europeans, by contrast, treat a ceasefire itself as “peace.” That mindset gap is central to why talks struggle.

Trump’s meetings opened a direct line to Putin and shifted some Western leaders toward accepting that questions about NATO membership and territorial adjustments are on the table.

Zelensky and much of Europe publicly maintain territorial integrity and reject ceding land, creating a major political/legal obstacle — especially for Zelensky, whose domestic legitimacy depends on defending sovereignty.

The colonel stresses the grim tradeoff: Ukrainians must choose between prioritizing territory or prioritizing lives (avoiding further casualties), and legal/constitutional adjustments might be needed if territory is ceded.

The colonel is skeptical about grand offensive claims (e.g., new long-range missiles) — notes such rhetoric and promised counteroffensives have been made before without delivering major reversals on the ground.

Bottom line: Anchorage created direct contact and clarified Russian demands; the core disagreement is whether a ceasefire is an end (European view) or a step inside a larger process (Russian view), and that disagreement — plus Zelensky’s refusal to cede territory — makes a negotiated peace very difficult.

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