America’s next top model: predicting the midterm results

America’s next top model: predicting the midterm results

Our model, built to predict the outcome of this year’s midterm elections, tips Republicans to take the House and Democrats to retain control of the Senate. The model’s architect discusses how and why he built it, and our polling guru explains why polls matter. Why there’s no nuclear-arms race in Asia—yet. And Egypt wants the Rosetta Stone back, but it’s not that simple.

For full access to print, digital and audio editions of The Economist, subscribe here www.economist.com/intelligenceoffer

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Hail Harris: the Democratic convention begins

Hail Harris: the Democratic convention begins

As Democrats convene in Chicago, polls suggest Kamala Harris is ahead by a whisker in the US presidential race. Can the party sustain the momentum? In hospital, your recovery may depend not just on di...

19 Aug 202423min

Landing padded: the global-recession risk

Landing padded: the global-recession risk

Inflation, interest rates and jobless numbers are on healthy trends; markets are gaining back ground. As the spectre of global recession fades we ask why fear has persisted. In the second instalment o...

16 Aug 202426min

One peace at a time: Gaza, Israel and Iran

One peace at a time: Gaza, Israel and Iran

Peace talks in Doha have a chance at progress even in Hamas’s absence. The outcome could determine the scope of Iran’s promised retaliations against Israel. New research suggests Mars may have an ocea...

15 Aug 202423min

Bait the hook! Fishing in the global talent pool

Bait the hook! Fishing in the global talent pool

Skilled immigrants bring more than just their expertise to job markets. But governments miss opportunities to attract them—or make them feel entirely unwelcome. In America it seems like the standard t...

14 Aug 202425min

AIOU: what if the AI boom busts?

AIOU: what if the AI boom busts?

Corporate investment in artificial-intelligence infrastructure reaches $1.4trn by some estimates. We ask what might threaten the expected windfalls that justify the spending. A Japanese mine’s bid to ...

13 Aug 202424min

The boot is on the other foot: Ukraine’s surprise incursion

The boot is on the other foot: Ukraine’s surprise incursion

Part of Russia is under foreign control for the first time since the second world war. We ask about the strategy behind the surprise raid—which may not be the last. The Paris Olympics were, all told, ...

12 Aug 202425min

Expelling mistake: the costs of hardline immigration policy

Expelling mistake: the costs of hardline immigration policy

The rich world is experiencing record migrant flows—and the attendant social upheaval. Finding immigration policies that are not economically ruinous is damnably hard. Our three-part series starts to ...

9 Aug 202425min

Arrivals haul: anti-tourism’s folly

Arrivals haul: anti-tourism’s folly

Tourists are getting decidedly less-warm welcomes in popular spots, but blunt anti-tourism policies are self-defeating. We look at how to maintain benefits for both the visitors and the visited. As Ru...

8 Aug 202421min

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