America’s next top model: predicting the midterm results

America’s next top model: predicting the midterm results

Our model, built to predict the outcome of this year’s midterm elections, tips Republicans to take the House and Democrats to retain control of the Senate. The model’s architect discusses how and why he built it, and our polling guru explains why polls matter. Why there’s no nuclear-arms race in Asia—yet. And Egypt wants the Rosetta Stone back, but it’s not that simple.

For full access to print, digital and audio editions of The Economist, subscribe here www.economist.com/intelligenceoffer

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The Intelligence: Modi’s battle for the south

The Intelligence: Modi’s battle for the south

The richer, more urban region does not just differ economically, but politically too. Can Mr Modi tone down the BJP’s Hindu nationalism and gain traction there? The EU has a grand plan to protect its ...

5 Mars 202424min

The Intelligence: Pressures for peace

The Intelligence: Pressures for peace

The international push for a ceasefire in Gaza continues, but the tragedies keep coming; in many ways a resolution still seems as distant as it was early in the war. We consider the temptation to go a...

4 Mars 202422min

The Weekend Intelligence: Life and fate

The Weekend Intelligence: Life and fate

A year on from our series Next Year in Moscow, Alexei Navalny, Russia’s most prominent opposition leader, is dead. Hope for the “beautiful Russia of the future” he imagined from his prison cell in Sib...

2 Mars 202453min

The Intelligence: Drug gateway

The Intelligence: Drug gateway

A visit to a port of entry at America’s Mexican border reveals the difficulties in stopping the flood of fentanyl—a cheap, potent and ever more deadly drug. Javier Milei, Argentina’s president, is loo...

1 Mars 202425min

Money Talks: Is the West losing its sanctions war?

Money Talks: Is the West losing its sanctions war?

It's been two years since Russia brought war to Ukraine. America, Britain and the European Union may not have intervened by putting boots on the ground—but they have launched a massive financial count...

29 Feb 202442min

The Intelligence: Redoubled agents

The Intelligence: Redoubled agents

A slew of spycraft mishaps might suggest Russia’s once-great intelligence services have hopelessly decayed. Do not be fooled: the spooks are back, and better. We ask why a “supercycle” commodities boo...

29 Feb 202423min

The Intelligence: If Beijing had a ballot

The Intelligence: If Beijing had a ballot

Some within China might prefer another Donald Trump presidency while others might favour Joe Biden. On balance, though: from there, neither option looks great. We look at the steps toward the first dr...

28 Feb 202425min

The Intelligence: Horn under a bad sign

The Intelligence: Horn under a bad sign

The birth rate of unicorns—firms with a valuation north of $1bn—has plummeted, and prior investors in them are eyeing what exits exist. We ask why the species is endangered. The struggle to finance an...

27 Feb 202425min

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