04 - Cardiff Garcia on Economics Journalism, Safe Assets, and Inflation

Greg Mankiw is a professor of economics at Harvard University and served as the chair of the Council on Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush. Today, he joins the show to discuss the history of macroeconomics and how macroeconomists function as both scientists, who formulate and test theories, and as engineers, who set out to solve real world problems. Greg also shares his thoughts on the debate between the New Keynesian School and New Classical School and how that debate has shaped how we think about economics. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com/ David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Greg Mankiw’s Harvard profile: https://scholar.harvard.edu/mankiw/home Greg Mankiw’s blog: https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/ Related links: “The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer” by Greg Mankiw https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/mankiw/files/macroeconomist_as_scientist.pdf Macroeconomics by Greg Mankiw https://www.amazon.com/Macroeconomics-N-Gregory-Mankiw/dp/1464182892

14 Aug 201758min

Edward Harrison is a consultant with Global Macro Advisers and founder of the investment news blog *Credit Writedowns.* Today, he joins the show to discuss the political forces that led to the establishment of the Eurozone and the turmoil that has plagued it since the Great Recession. Edward also shares his thoughts on whether the Eurozone will survive. David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: https://macromusings.com/ Edward’s blog: https://pro.creditwritedowns.com/ David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Edward Harrison’s Twitter: @edwardnh Related links: “Macron Will Need to Target Reforms Like a Laser” by Edward Harrison http://www.businessinsider.com/macron-will-need-to-target-reforms-like-a-laser-2017-5 “Some Pre-European Debt Crisis Signs are Popping Up Again” by Edward Harrison http://www.businessinsider.com/some-pre-european-debt-crisis-signs-are-popping-up-again-2017-4

7 Aug 20171h 1min

In this week’s episode in front of a live audience, Scott Sumner, the director of the Program on Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center and blogger at *The Money Illusion,* returns to the show to share his thoughts on the Federal Reserve’s performance from the Great Recession to the present. Scott explains how forecast targeting and price level targeting could have mitigated the economic decline in 2008 and 2009. He also shares his thoughts on how the cognitive biases of central bankers can cause them to make mistakes in evaluating the stance of monetary policy and offers some solutions to address this problem. Note: this episode was recorded as part of a special Mercatus Center event in June 2017. David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com Scott’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scott-sumner Scott's blog: www.themoneyillusion.com/ Related links: *The Midas Paradox: Financial Markets, Government Policy Shocks, and the Great Depression* by Scott Sumner https://www.amazon.com/Midas-Paradox-Financial-Government-Depression/dp/1598131508 “Nudging the Fed Toward a Rules-Based Policy Regime” by Scott Sumner https://www.mercatus.org/publication/nudging-fed-toward-rules-based-policy-regime “Demystifying the Fed” by Scott Sumner https://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/articles/2017-07-10/the-federal-reserve-needs-to-learn-from-its-monetary-mistakes “Inflation Forecasting Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets” by Lars Svensson http://www.nber.org/papers/w5797

31 Juli 201752min

Lisa Cook is an Associate Professor of Economics at Michigan State University and formerly served as a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama. Today, she joins the show to discuss her work on how the Great Recession affected households in the U.S. She also shares her thoughts on the prospects for economic development in Africa. Finally, she and David also discuss the U.S. patent system and whether the system is in need of reforms. (Note: We experienced some technical difficulties during the record of this episode. You’ll notice a slight change in audio quality around the 5 minute mark.) David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Lisa Cook’s profile: https://msu.edu/~lisacook/ David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Lisa Cook’s Twitter: @drlisadcook Related links: “Consumer Finance and the Financial and Economic Crises: Implications from Household Surveys in Michigan” by Lisa Cook https://msu.edu/~lisacook/mich_cons_fin_jconed_022511.pdf “Were the Nigerian Banking Reforms of 2005 A Success ... And for the Poor?” by Lisa Cook http://www.nber.org/papers/w16890 “Violence and Economic Activity: Evidence from African American Patents, 1870-1940” by Lisa Cook http://lisadcook.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/pats_paper17_1013_final_web.pdf

24 Juli 20171h 2min

Ryan Cooper is a national correspondent at *The Week.* He joins the show to discuss how bad economic policy has hindered strong economic recovery from the Great Recession. Furthermore, Ryan argues economic anxiety stemming from the Great Recession has given rise to populist and even extremist political movements throughout the world. Finally, Ryan and David discuss the folly of limiting population growth as a means of combating climate change and how slowing population growth presents many long-term economic challenges. David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Ryan Cooper’s *The Week* archive: http://theweek.com/authors/ryan-cooper David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Ryan Cooper’s Twitter: @ryanlcooper “The Great Recession Clearly Gave Rise to Right-Wing Populism” by Ryan Cooper http://theweek.com/articles/685813/great-recession-clearly-gave-rise-rightwing-populism “The Federal Reserve is Still Wrecking America” by Ryan Cooper http://theweek.com/articles/696914/federal-reserve-still-wrecking-america “Why America is About to Start Freaking Out about Babies” by Ryan Cooper http://theweek.com/articles/625705/why-america-about-start-freaking-about-babies

17 Juli 201759min

Stephen Matteo Miller is a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He joins the show to discuss his work on the history of financial crises as well as the evolution of the U.S. banking system since the late 1800s. Steph stresses the importance of capital requirements (how much capital or equity a bank holds relative to its liabilities) in combating financial crises. Furthermore, he argues that higher and simpler capital requirements, rather than more regulation, are the keys to a more market-disciplined banking system. David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Stephen Miller’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/stephen-matteo-miller David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Stephen Miller’s Twitter: @SMatteoMiller Related links: “Ending Too-Big-to-Fail May Require More Than the Minneapolis Fed Too-Big-to-Fail Plan” by Stephen Miller https://www.mercatus.org/publications/too-big-to-fail-minneapolis-fed “A Primer on the Evolution and Complexity of Bank Regulatory Capital Standards” by Stephen Miller and James Barth https://www.mercatus.org/publications/primer-bank-regulatory-capital-standards *“To Establish a More Effective Supervision of Banking”: How the Birth of the Fed Altered Bank Supervision* by Eugene White http://www.nber.org/papers/w16825.pdf

10 Juli 201759min

Ricardo Reis is a professor of economics at the London School of Economics and the editor of the prominent Journal of Monetary Economics. He joins the show to discuss the state of macroeconomics, which has recently come under attack from many commentators who claim the discipline lacks empirical rigor and has failed to accurately forecast economic conditions. Ricardo gives a nuanced defense of macroeconomics, arguing macroeconomic research is, indeed, quite vibrant and empirical. Furthermore, he argues that although there have been shortcomings, macroeconomics has greatly improved over the past few decades in its ability to forecast and inform policy debates. David Beckworth’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Ricardo Reis’s LSE profile: http://personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/ David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth “Is Something Really Wrong with Macroeconomics?” by Ricardo Reis http://personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/papers/17-wrong.pdf “Achieving Price Stability by Manipulating the Central Bank's Payment on Reserves” by Robert Hall and Ricardo Reis http://www.nber.org/papers/w22761 “When Economics Failed” by Noah Smith https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-04/when-economics-failed

3 Juli 20171h 6min

Matt Yglesias is a columnist and editor for the news website Vox, which he co-founded in 2014. Today, he joins the show to talk about the politics shaping Fed policy. Matt discusses why he thinks President Barack Obama’s biggest policy failure was in failing to appoint members to the Fed's Board of Governors. He also shares his thoughts on where the Left and Right currently stand on monetary issues. David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Matt Yglesias’s Vox archive: https://www.vox.com/authors/matthew-yglesias David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Matt Yglesias’s Twitter: @MattYglesias Related links: “Obama’s Biggest Economic Policy Mistake” by Matt Yglesias https://www.vox.com/2014/9/17/6219247/obamas-biggest-economic-policy-mistake “Fed Up” by Matt Yglesias (Feature in *Democracy: A Journal of Ideas*) http://democracyjournal.org/magazine/20/fed-up/

26 Juni 201759min