Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox

Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox

Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. People also look to forecasters for ideological assurance, entertainment, and to minimize regret–such as that caused by not taking a global pandemic seriously enough. The best forecasters aren't just intelligent, but fox-like integrative thinkers capable of navigating values that are conflicting or in tension.

He joined Tyler to discuss whether the world as a whole is becoming harder to predict, whether Goldman Sachs traders can beat forecasters, what inferences we can draw from analyzing the speech of politicians, the importance of interdisciplinary teams, the qualities he looks for in leaders, the reasons he's skeptical machine learning will outcompete his research team, the year he thinks the ascent of the West became inevitable, how research on counterfactuals can be applied to modern debates, why people with second cultures tend to make better forecasters, how to become more fox-like, and more.

Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video.

Recorded March 26th, 2020

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Dani Rodrik on Premature Deindustrialization and Why the World is Second Best at Best

Dani Rodrik on Premature Deindustrialization and Why the World is Second Best at Best

Tyler and Dani Rodrik discuss premature deindustrialization, the world's trilemmas, the political economy of John le Carré, what's so special about manufacturing, Orhan Pamuk, RCTs, and why the world is second best at best. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video. Other ways to connect Follow us on Twitter and Instagram Follow Tyler on Twitter Follow Dani on Twitter Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Subscribe at our newsletter page to have the latest Conversations with Tyler news sent straight to your inbox.

1 Okt 20151h 24min

Luigi Zingales on Italy, Google and Conglomeration, and Donald Trump (Live at Mason)

Luigi Zingales on Italy, Google and Conglomeration, and Donald Trump (Live at Mason)

In the third event of this series, Tyler and Luigi Zingales discuss Italy, Donald Trump, Antonio Gramsci, Google and conglomeration, Luchino Visconti, Starbucks, and the surprisingly high productivity of Italian cafés. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video. Other ways to connect Follow us on Twitter and Instagram Follow Tyler on Twitter Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Subscribe at our newsletter page to have the latest Conversations with Tyler news sent straight to your inbox.

16 Sep 20151h 16min

Jeffrey Sachs on Charter Cities and How to Reform Graduate Economics Education (Live at Mason)

Jeffrey Sachs on Charter Cities and How to Reform Graduate Economics Education (Live at Mason)

Tyler Cowen and Jeffrey Sachs discuss the resource curse, why Russia failed and Poland succeeded, charter cities, Sach's China optimism, JFK, Paul Rosenstein-Rodan, whether Africa will be able to overcome the middle income trap, Paul Krugman, Sach's favorite novel, premature deindustrialization, and how to reform graduate economics education. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video. Other ways to connect Follow us on Twitter and Instagram Follow Tyler on Twitter Follow Jeff on Twitter Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Subscribe at our newsletter page to have the latest Conversations with Tyler news sent straight to your inbox.

31 Mars 20151h 32min

Peter Thiel on Stagnation, Innovation, and What Not to Call your Company (Live at Mason)

Peter Thiel on Stagnation, Innovation, and What Not to Call your Company (Live at Mason)

Peter Thiel and Tyler Cowen, both New York Times bestselling authors, are among today's top global thought leaders and influential innovators. Listen as these two engage in a serious dialogue on the ideas and policies that will shape the future of innovation and progress in the coming years and decades. Peter Thiel is among the most impressive innovators of the past two decades. As co-founder of Paypal and seed-funder for Facebook, Thiel has been instrumental in the conception and growth of some of today's most entrepreneurial and innovative companies. In his latest best-selling book, Zero to One, Thiel explains how to build a better future by capitalizing on innovation. A staunch optimist, he maintains that progress can be achieved anywhere the human mind is able to think creatively. Thiel describes how entrepreneurial thinking leads to innovation, which builds something new and moves the mark from zero to one. Note: Due to a technical malfunction, the audio quality briefly drops from 11:15 - 13:30. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video. Other ways to connect Follow us on Twitter and Instagram Follow Tyler on Twitter Follow Peter on Twitter Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Subscribe at our newsletter page to have the latest Conversations with Tyler news sent straight to your inbox.

25 Mars 20151h 20min

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