Ep 31: Philip Tetlock on the Art of Forecasting

Ep 31: Philip Tetlock on the Art of Forecasting

Yogi Berra once said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Philip Tetlock joins Vasant Dhar in episode 31 of Brave New World to discuss what superforecasters do consistently well -- and how we can improve our judgement and decision-making.

Useful resources:
1. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction -- Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner.
2. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? -- Philip Tetlock.
3. Daniel Kahneman on How Noise Hampers Judgement -- Episode 21 of Brave New World.
4. Everything Is Obvious: *Once You Know the Answer -- Duncan Watts.
5. The Hedgehog and the Fox -- Isiah Berlin.
6. What do forecasting rationales reveal about thinking patterns of top geopolitical forecasters? -- Christopher W Karvetski, Carolyn Meinel, Daniel T Maxwell, Yunzi Lu, Barbara A.Mellers and Philip E.Tetlock.
7. Terry Odean on How to Think about Investing -- Episode 23 of Brave New World.
8. Reciprocal Scoring: A Method for Forecasting Unanswerable Questions -- Ezra Karger, Joshua Monrad, Barb Mellers and Philip Tetlock.
9. The Signal and the Noise -- Nate Silver.
10. FiveThirtyEight.

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Avsnitt(100)

Ep 108: Prashanth Chandrasekar: Community and the AI Pivot

Ep 108: Prashanth Chandrasekar: Community and the AI Pivot

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Ep 107: Rule Breaker Investing — David Gardner on Staying the Course

Ep 107: Rule Breaker Investing — David Gardner on Staying the Course

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16 Juli 1h 2min

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Ep 104: Leslie Kay on Smell, Memory and the Brain

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EP 103: Léon Bottou on Fiction Machines and the Limits of AI Alignment

EP 103: Léon Bottou on Fiction Machines and the Limits of AI Alignment

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12 Mars 1h 27min

Ep 103: Jayant Sinha on AI Governance In A Fragmented World

Ep 103: Jayant Sinha on AI Governance In A Fragmented World

AI is reshaping national power and governance. Drawing on India's digital public infrastructure, Jayant Sinha and Vasant Dhar discuss innovation and sovereignty over compute, data consent and privacy ...

12 Feb 1h 10min

Ep 102 -  Alex 'Sandy' Pentland on Humanizing Technology

Ep 102 - Alex 'Sandy' Pentland on Humanizing Technology

Professor Alex 'Sandy' Pentland, one of the most renowned computational scientists in the world, joins Vasant Dhar in Episode 102 of Brave New World to discuss the state and development of human-centr...

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