Why $200 Oil Won’t Spike Inflation to 9% | Anna Wong on Recession Probability, PCE vs CPI, and Fed Reaction Function In A Scenario of Soaring Energy Prices
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley1 Huhti

Why $200 Oil Won’t Spike Inflation to 9% | Anna Wong on Recession Probability, PCE vs CPI, and Fed Reaction Function In A Scenario of Soaring Energy Prices

This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2715538577&utm_source=jfmv&utm_content=pqnt&utm_medium=podcast_02&utm_term=noterm Learn More about Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF: https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/ In this episode of Monetary Matters, Bloomberg Chief US Economist Anna Wong explains why surging oil prices are unlikely to trigger a repeat of the 9% inflation seen in 2022. Wong argues that even if oil reaches $200 per barrel, headline CPI would likely peak near 6% before declining due to "base effects" and a lack of the excess consumer savings that fueled previous price spikes. She highlights the reality of "demand destruction," noting that sustained $100 oil would sap nearly $2,000 in spending power from the average American household. Despite these pressures, Wong does not view a recession as her base case, citing the offsetting support of expansionary fiscal policy and increased domestic production in the energy and defense sectors. The discussion also explores why the Federal Reserve should "look through" these commodity shocks, particularly as core PCE remains influenced by more persistent issues like the AI-driven memory chip shortage. Finally, Wong compares our current macro landscape to the 1970s, suggesting that while the situations "rhyme," a full repeat would require a much larger surge in government-driven demand. Recorded March 31, 2026 Follow Anna Wong on X https://x.com/AnnaEconomist Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/jackfarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

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The Economic Effects of Technological Disruption & Artificial Intelligence | Nobel Laureate in Economics Peter Howitt

The Economic Effects of Technological Disruption & Artificial Intelligence | Nobel Laureate in Economics Peter Howitt

Recent Nobel laureate in economics Peter Howitt joins Jack to discuss his work on technological disruption and creative destruction. Dr. Howitt explains that technological advancement creates economic...

5 Maalis 1h 16min

Jobless Growth, Euphoria, and a Manufacturing Recovery: How Iran Could Force a Macro Regime Change | Tian Yang

Jobless Growth, Euphoria, and a Manufacturing Recovery: How Iran Could Force a Macro Regime Change | Tian Yang

This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-mat...

4 Maalis 1h 1min

How Legendary Resource Investor Rick Rule is Investing for a 10-Year Bull Market

How Legendary Resource Investor Rick Rule is Investing for a 10-Year Bull Market

This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/ Legendary resource investor Rick Rule, founder of Rule Investment Media, e...

1 Maalis 1h 10min

“A Huge Problem for Everybody” | Paul Krugman on Currency Devaluation, Artificial Intelligence, Kevin Warsh Nomination, & More

“A Huge Problem for Everybody” | Paul Krugman on Currency Devaluation, Artificial Intelligence, Kevin Warsh Nomination, & More

This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/ Distinguished economist Paul Krugman joins Jack to discuss the devaluation o...

15 Helmi 59min

The “Climax Top” In Gold & Silver | Milton Berg, Turning Point Master, on Precious Metals, Bitcoin, and Disturbing December Warning In Stocks

The “Climax Top” In Gold & Silver | Milton Berg, Turning Point Master, on Precious Metals, Bitcoin, and Disturbing December Warning In Stocks

Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm Recorded in February 6th 2026, technical analyst Milton Berg returns to discuss his market outlook after correctly predictin...

10 Helmi 2h 17min

Why Carson Block Won’t Short AI Names Until the IPOs Begin & Muddy Waters’ Pivot to Long Resources Stocks & S&P 500 Momentum

Why Carson Block Won’t Short AI Names Until the IPOs Begin & Muddy Waters’ Pivot to Long Resources Stocks & S&P 500 Momentum

This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/ Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters Capital joins Monetary Matters to di...

4 Helmi 1h 6min

Why Silver Is Flowing East | Alex Campbell on Solar, Scarcity, and the Six-Sigma Silver Crash (Plus: SaaS & AI)

Why Silver Is Flowing East | Alex Campbell on Solar, Scarcity, and the Six-Sigma Silver Crash (Plus: SaaS & AI)

This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/ Alexander Campbell, founder of Rose AI and former head of commodities at B...

3 Helmi 1h 36min

Is the Age of Reckless Lending Coming To An End? | Oaktree’s Raghav Khanna on Private Credit, Software, and How Oaktree Correctly Saw First Brands' Red Flags

Is the Age of Reckless Lending Coming To An End? | Oaktree’s Raghav Khanna on Private Credit, Software, and How Oaktree Correctly Saw First Brands' Red Flags

This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-mat...

1 Helmi 1h

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