#70 - Dr Cassidy Nelson on the 12 best ways to stop the next pandemic (and limit nCoV)

#70 - Dr Cassidy Nelson on the 12 best ways to stop the next pandemic (and limit nCoV)

nCoV is alarming governments and citizens around the world. It has killed more than 1,000 people, brought the Chinese economy to a standstill, and continues to show up in more and more places. But bad though it is, it's much closer to a warning shot than a worst case scenario. The next emerging infectious disease could easily be more contagious, more fatal, or both.

Despite improvements in the last few decades, humanity is still not nearly prepared enough to contain new diseases. We identify them too slowly. We can't do enough to reduce their spread. And we lack vaccines or drugs treatments for at least a year, if they ever arrive at all.

Links to learn more, summary and full transcript.

This is a precarious situation, especially with advances in biotechnology increasing our ability to modify viruses and bacteria as we like.

In today's episode, Cassidy Nelson, a medical doctor and research scholar at Oxford University's Future of Humanity Institute, explains 12 things her research group think urgently need to happen if we're to keep the risk at acceptable levels. The ideas are:

Science

1. Roll out genetic sequencing tests that lets you test someone for all known and unknown pathogens in one go.
2. Fund research into faster ‘platform’ methods for going from pathogen to vaccine, perhaps using innovation prizes.
3. Fund R&D into broad-spectrum drugs, especially antivirals, similar to how we have generic antibiotics against multiple types of bacteria.

Response

4. Develop a national plan for responding to a severe pandemic, regardless of the cause. Have a backup plan for when things are so bad the normal processes have stopped working entirely.
5. Rigorously evaluate in what situations travel bans are warranted. (They're more often counterproductive.)
6. Coax countries into more rapidly sharing their medical data, so that during an outbreak the disease can be understood and countermeasures deployed as quickly as possible.
7. Set up genetic surveillance in hospitals, public transport and elsewhere, to detect new pathogens before an outbreak — or even before patients develop symptoms.
8. Run regular tabletop exercises within governments to simulate how a pandemic response would play out.

Oversight

9. Mandate disclosure of accidents in the biosafety labs which handle the most dangerous pathogens.
10. Figure out how to govern DNA synthesis businesses, to make it harder to mail order the DNA of a dangerous pathogen.
11. Require full cost-benefit analysis of 'dual-use' research projects that can generate global risks.

12. And finally, to maintain momentum, it's necessary to clearly assign responsibility for the above to particular individuals and organisations.

These advances can be pursued by politicians and public servants, as well as academics, entrepreneurs and doctors, opening the door for many listeners to pitch in to help solve this incredibly pressing problem.

In the episode Rob and Cassidy also talk about:

• How Cassidy went from clinical medicine to a PhD studying novel pathogens with pandemic potential.
• The pros, and significant cons, of travel restrictions.
• Whether the same policies work for natural and anthropogenic pandemics.
• Ways listeners can pursue a career in biosecurity.
• Where we stand with nCoV as of today.

Chapters:

  • Rob’s intro (00:00:00)
  • The interview begins (00:03:27)
  • Where we stand with nCov today (00:07:24)
  • Policy idea 1: A drastic change to diagnostic testing (00:34:58)
  • Policy idea 2: Vaccine platforms (00:47:08)
  • Policy idea 3: Broad-spectrum therapeutics (00:54:48)
  • Policy idea 4: Develop a national plan for responding to a severe pandemic, regardless of the cause (01:02:15)
  • Policy idea 5: A different approach to travel bans (01:15:59)
  • Policy idea 6: Data sharing (01:16:48)
  • Policy idea 7: Prevention (01:24:45)
  • Policy idea 8: transparency around lab accidents (01:33:58)
  • Policy idea 9: DNA synthesis screening (01:39:22)
  • Policy idea 10: Dual Use Research oversight (01:48:47)
  • Policy idea 11: Pandemic tabletop exercises (02:00:00)
  • Policy idea 12: Coordination (02:12:20)


Get this episode by subscribing: type 80,000 Hours into your podcasting app. Or read the linked transcript.

Producer: Keiran Harris.
Transcriptions: Zakee Ulhaq.

Jaksot(325)

#20 - Bruce Friedrich on inventing outstanding meat substitutes to end speciesism & factory farming

#20 - Bruce Friedrich on inventing outstanding meat substitutes to end speciesism & factory farming

Before the US Civil War, it was easier for the North to morally oppose slavery. Why? Because unlike the South they weren’t profiting much from its existence. The fight for abolition was partly won bec...

19 Helmi 20181h 18min

#19 - Samantha Pitts-Kiefer on working next to the White House trying to prevent nuclear war

#19 - Samantha Pitts-Kiefer on working next to the White House trying to prevent nuclear war

Rogue elements within a state’s security forces enrich dozens of kilograms of uranium. It’s then assembled into a crude nuclear bomb. The bomb is transported on a civilian aircraft to Washington D.C, ...

14 Helmi 20181h 4min

#18 - Ofir Reich on using data science to end poverty & the spurious action-inaction distinction

#18 - Ofir Reich on using data science to end poverty & the spurious action-inaction distinction

Ofir Reich started out doing math in the military, before spending 8 years in tech startups - but then made a sharp turn to become a data scientist focussed on helping the global poor. At UC Berkeley...

31 Tammi 20181h 18min

#17 - Will MacAskill on moral uncertainty, utilitarianism & how to avoid being a moral monster

#17 - Will MacAskill on moral uncertainty, utilitarianism & how to avoid being a moral monster

Immanuel Kant is a profoundly influential figure in modern philosophy, and was one of the earliest proponents for universal democracy and international cooperation. He also thought that women have no ...

19 Tammi 20181h 52min

#16 - Michelle Hutchinson on global priorities research & shaping the ideas of intellectuals

#16 - Michelle Hutchinson on global priorities research & shaping the ideas of intellectuals

In the 40s and 50s neoliberalism was a fringe movement within economics. But by the 80s it had become a dominant school of thought in public policy, and achieved major policy changes across the Englis...

22 Joulu 201755min

#15 - Phil Tetlock on how chimps beat Berkeley undergrads and when it’s wise to defer to the wise

#15 - Phil Tetlock on how chimps beat Berkeley undergrads and when it’s wise to defer to the wise

Prof Philip Tetlock is a social science legend. Over forty years he has researched whose predictions we can trust, whose we can’t and why - and developed methods that allow all of us to be better at p...

20 Marras 20171h 24min

#14 - Sharon Nunez & Jose Valle on going undercover to expose animal abuse

#14 - Sharon Nunez & Jose Valle on going undercover to expose animal abuse

What if you knew that ducks were being killed with pitchforks? Rabbits dumped alive into containers? Or pigs being strangled with forklifts? Would you be willing to go undercover to expose the crime? ...

13 Marras 20171h 25min

#13 - Claire Walsh on testing which policies work & how to get governments to listen to the results

#13 - Claire Walsh on testing which policies work & how to get governments to listen to the results

In both rich and poor countries, government policy is often based on no evidence at all and many programs don’t work. This has particularly harsh effects on the global poor - in some countries governm...

31 Loka 201752min

Suosittua kategoriassa Koulutus

rss-murhan-anatomia
voi-hyvin-meditaatiot-2
rss-narsisti
adhd-podi
psykopodiaa-podcast
rss-uskonto-on-tylsaa
rss-rahamania
rss-duodecim-lehti
rss-valo-minussa-2
rss-vapaudu-voimaasi
rss-liian-kuuma-peruna
rahapuhetta
rss-niinku-asia-on
aloita-meditaatio
kesken
dear-ladies
mielipaivakirja
rss-eron-alkemiaa
rss-tietoinen-yhteys-podcast-2
aamukahvilla