#168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion

#168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion

"If we carry on looking at these industrialised economies, not thinking about what it is they're actually doing and what the potential of this is, you can make an argument that, yes, rates of growth are slowing, the rate of innovation is slowing. But it isn't.

What we're doing is creating wildly new technologies: basically producing what is nothing less than an evolutionary change in what it means to be a human being. But this has not yet spilled over into the kind of growth that we have accustomed ourselves to in the fossil-fuel industrial era. That is about to hit us in a big way." — Ian Morris

In today’s episode, host Rob Wiblin speaks with repeat guest Ian Morris about what big-picture history says about the likely impact of machine intelligence.

Links to learn more, summary and full transcript.

They cover:

  • Some crazy anomalies in the historical record of civilisational progress
  • Whether we should think about technology from an evolutionary perspective
  • Whether we ought to expect war to make a resurgence or continue dying out
  • Why we can't end up living like The Jetsons
  • Whether stagnation or cyclical recurring futures seem very plausible
  • What it means that the rate of increase in the economy has been increasing
  • Whether violence is likely between humans and powerful AI systems
  • The most likely reasons for Rob and Ian to be really wrong about all of this
  • How professional historians react to this sort of talk
  • The future of Ian’s work
  • Plenty more

Chapters:

  • Cold open (00:00:00)
  • Rob’s intro (00:01:27)
  • Why we should expect the future to be wild (00:04:08)
  • How historians have reacted to the idea of radically different futures (00:21:20)
  • Why we won’t end up in The Jetsons (00:26:20)
  • The rise of machine intelligence (00:31:28)
  • AI from an evolutionary point of view (00:46:32)
  • Is violence likely between humans and powerful AI systems? (00:59:53)
  • Most troubling objections to this approach in Ian’s view (01:28:20)
  • Confronting anomalies in the historical record (01:33:10)
  • The cyclical view of history (01:56:11)
  • Is stagnation plausible? (02:01:38)
  • The limit on how long this growth trend can continue (02:20:57)
  • The future of Ian’s work (02:37:17)

Producer and editor: Keiran Harris
Audio Engineering Lead: Ben Cordell
Technical editing: Milo McGuire
Transcriptions: Katy Moore

Jaksot(333)

#132 – Nova DasSarma on why information security may be critical to the safe development of AI systems

#132 – Nova DasSarma on why information security may be critical to the safe development of AI systems

If a business has spent $100 million developing a product, it's a fair bet that they don't want it stolen in two seconds and uploaded to the web where anyone can use it for free. This problem exists...

14 Kesä 20222h 42min

#131 – Lewis Dartnell on getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#131 – Lewis Dartnell on getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

“We’re leaving these 16 contestants on an island with nothing but what they can scavenge from an abandoned factory and apartment block. Over the next 365 days, they’ll try to rebuild as much of civili...

3 Kesä 20221h 5min

#130 – Will MacAskill on balancing frugality with ambition, whether you need longtermism, & mental health under pressure

#130 – Will MacAskill on balancing frugality with ambition, whether you need longtermism, & mental health under pressure

Imagine you lead a nonprofit that operates on a shoestring budget. Staff are paid minimum wage, lunch is bread and hummus, and you're all bunched up on a few tables in a basement office. But over a fe...

23 Touko 20222h 16min

#129 – James Tibenderana on the state of the art in malaria control and elimination

#129 – James Tibenderana on the state of the art in malaria control and elimination

The good news is deaths from malaria have been cut by a third since 2005. The bad news is it still causes 250 million cases and 600,000 deaths a year, mostly among young children in sub-Saharan Africa...

9 Touko 20223h 19min

#128 – Chris Blattman on the five reasons wars happen

#128 – Chris Blattman on the five reasons wars happen

In nature, animals roar and bare their teeth to intimidate adversaries — but one side usually backs down, and real fights are rare. The wisdom of evolution is that the risk of violence is just too gre...

28 Huhti 20222h 46min

#127 – Sam Bankman-Fried on taking a high-risk approach to crypto and doing good

#127 – Sam Bankman-Fried on taking a high-risk approach to crypto and doing good

On this episode of the show, host Rob Wiblin interviews Sam Bankman-Fried. This interview was recorded in February 2022, and released in April 2022. But on November 11 2022, Sam Bankman-Fried's co...

14 Huhti 20223h 20min

#126 – Bryan Caplan on whether lazy parenting is OK, what really helps workers, and betting on beliefs

#126 – Bryan Caplan on whether lazy parenting is OK, what really helps workers, and betting on beliefs

Everybody knows that good parenting has a big impact on how kids turn out. Except that maybe they don't, because it doesn't.Incredible though it might seem, according to today's guest — economist Brya...

5 Huhti 20222h 15min

#125 – Joan Rohlfing on how to avoid catastrophic nuclear blunders

#125 – Joan Rohlfing on how to avoid catastrophic nuclear blunders

Since the Soviet Union split into different countries in 1991, the pervasive fear of catastrophe that people lived with for decades has gradually faded from memory, and nuclear warhead stockpiles have...

29 Maalis 20222h 13min

Suosittua kategoriassa Koulutus

rss-murhan-anatomia
psykopodiaa-podcast
voi-hyvin-meditaatiot-2
adhd-podi
rss-liian-kuuma-peruna
rss-niinku-asia-on
rss-rahamania
jari-sarasvuo-podcast
rss-tietoinen-yhteys-podcast-2
rss-valo-minussa-2
rss-vapaudu-voimaasi
kesken
psykologia
ihminen-tavattavissa-tommy-hellsten-instituutti
rss-narsisti
rss-arkea-ja-aurinkoa-podcast-espanjasta
rahapuhetta
filocast-filosofian-perusteet
rss-uskonto-on-tylsaa
rss-duodecim-lehti