SI340: ETFs, Size, and the Commodity Problem ft. Alan Dunne
Top Traders Unplugged22 Maalis 2025

SI340: ETFs, Size, and the Commodity Problem ft. Alan Dunne

In today’s episode, Alan Dunne and I take a step back - and a step forward - by exploring 125 years of hard-earned market wisdom, courtesy of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, the definitive source of long-term asset class performance. What does this rich dataset tell us about equities, bonds, diversification, and the underrated role of patience in investing? And how relevant are these lessons for investors navigating today’s high-concentration markets, stubborn inflation, and the potential cracks in the classic 60/40 portfolio?

But that’s not all - we also dive into one of the most overlooked challenges facing systematic trend followers today: capacity constraints, especially in commodities. Drawing on Quantica’s latest research, we examine why commodities have historically been critical to CTA performance, how liquidity limits silently erode returns as strategies scale, and why the explosive growth of trend following ETFs may come at a hidden cost investors rarely see.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:41 - What has caught our attention recently?

04:14 - A new era for Germany?

10:02 - The ETF space is on fire

11:21 - The Nordic countries are on a roll

12:18 - Dunne's global macro perspective

21:39 - Industry performance update

27:07 - An analysis of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook

34:29 - Why are expected returns so far off real returns in the Pension Fund space?

41:07 - The cycle of returns

46:07 - When trend following hits capacity

53:56 - Why Niels is concerned about new replication products

58:52 - Can trading few markets actually provide more diversification than trading many markets?

01:03:40 - What is up for next week?

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Jaksot(914)

TTU34: The Art of Risk Management ft. Luc Van Hof of Capital Hedge – 2of2

TTU34: The Art of Risk Management ft. Luc Van Hof of Capital Hedge – 2of2

In the second part of our interview with hedge fund founder Luc Van Hof, we dive into the philosophy and creation behind his trading models. We also discuss why he is a risk averse person, what hobbie...

25 Syys 20141h 22min

TTU33: Options Trading: A Dangerous Animal? ft. Luc Van Hof of Capital Hedge – 1of2

TTU33: Options Trading: A Dangerous Animal? ft. Luc Van Hof of Capital Hedge – 1of2

Our next guest worked for the European Commission before starting his own firm. In an unusual career twist, he sold his company to a larger firm only to buy it back from them a few years later and had...

22 Syys 20141h 19min

TTU32: The Most Misunderstood Stats That You Can Use ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group – 2of2

TTU32: The Most Misunderstood Stats That You Can Use ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group – 2of2

In the second part of our conversation with Marc Malek, we explore the strategies that he uses to build his models and how he explains them in simple terms. We go in depth about drawdowns and what inv...

18 Syys 20141h 5min

TTU31: Why Investors Should Not be Worried ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group – 1of2

TTU31: Why Investors Should Not be Worried ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group – 1of2

This guest had a different path that eventually led to owning a hedgefund in New York. Marc Malek got a grant from NASA to study how different armored tank positions would lead to winning results on t...

15 Syys 20141h 13min

TTU30: Don’t Tweak Your Models! ft. Aref Karim of Quality Capital Management – 2of2

TTU30: Don’t Tweak Your Models! ft. Aref Karim of Quality Capital Management – 2of2

Welcome back to the second part of our discussion with Aref Karim. In this episode, Aref discusses his firm’s strategies and the broader philosophies that drives what he does. He also talks about mark...

11 Syys 20141h 8min

TTU29: How the largest investor in Hedge Funds got Started ft. Aref Karim of Quality Capital Management – 1of2

TTU29: How the largest investor in Hedge Funds got Started ft. Aref Karim of Quality Capital Management – 1of2

How do you transition from working alongside the capital management industry to starting your own hedge fund? Our next guest grew up in Bangladesh but fled to London during the Bangladesh Liberation W...

8 Syys 20141h 9min

TTU28: How to Bridge the Gap Between Philosophy & Rules ft. Scott Foster of Dominion Capital Management – 2of2

TTU28: How to Bridge the Gap Between Philosophy & Rules ft. Scott Foster of Dominion Capital Management – 2of2

Welcome back to the second part of our interview with Scott Foster, President and Founder of Dominion Capital Management.In this episode, we learn the philosophical rules that drive his firm, and how ...

4 Syys 20141h 26min

TTU27: Magician-turned Trader: “Reality Doesn’t Matter” ft. Scott Foster of Dominion Capital Management – 1of2

TTU27: Magician-turned Trader: “Reality Doesn’t Matter” ft. Scott Foster of Dominion Capital Management – 1of2

Our next guest was a philosophy major and a magician before he ever considered trading in the stock market. In Part 1 of our talk, he describes how philosophy and psychology determine his firm’s decis...

1 Syys 20141h 22min

Suosittua kategoriassa Liike-elämä ja talous

sijotuskasti
mimmit-sijoittaa
rss-rahapodi
psykopodiaa-podcast
rss-rahamania
herrasmieshakkerit
ostan-asuntoja-podcast
rss-seuraava-potilas
rss-20-30-40-podcast
rahapuhetta
rss-inderes-femme
rss-paasipodi
rss-myynnilla-on-asiaa-kert-kenner
taloudellinen-mielenrauha
rss-sami-miettinen-neuvottelija
yrittaja
raksapodi
rss-lahtijat
rss-startup-ministerio
rss-sisalto-kuntoon