SI357: Liquidity, Leverage, and the Lie of Calm ft. Cem Karsan
Top Traders Unplugged19 Heinä 2025

SI357: Liquidity, Leverage, and the Lie of Calm ft. Cem Karsan

As summer sets in, Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to trace the contours of a market that feels calm but isn’t. What looks like low vol masks a crowded hedge fund ecosystem and a structural vol compression regime few understand. From a VIX spike driven by unexpected Call activity to the slow-motion political pressure on Powell, the signals are subtle but mounting. They cover China’s resource diplomacy, AI’s quiet dislocation of white-collar work, and the rising fragility from concentration across assets, brokers, and narratives. This is a conversation about setup, not outcome... and the traps hiding in plain sight.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:19 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:30 - Stay tuned for the latest UGO episode!

05:04 - China is taking the long view - and succeeding with it

07:04 - Tech companies are starting to buy into rare earth

08:30 - The risk of high stock trading firm concentration

11:01 - Industry performance update

13:33 - Q1, Rick: What other asset class volatilites besides gold are mispriced at the moment?

24:59 - Karsan's thoughts on the current macro environment

30:33 - What could trigger a deleveraging/degrossing event?

32:28 - The impact of tariffs - what do the numbers tell us?

41:21 - Is a firing on the horizon for Powell?

46:53 - Inflation is becoming hard to hedge

56:15 - The Emperor's New Clothes moment

58:05 - Addressing Paul Jones' asset allocation

01:03:35 - Will AI make us all unemployed?

01:10:13 - Is Libertarianism is a bigger threat to the US than Socialism?

01:13:28 - Where are markets heading according to Karsan?

01:28:27 - What is up for next week?

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Jaksot(914)

UGO04: CNBC Legend on the Price of Losing Price ft. Rick Santelli

UGO04: CNBC Legend on the Price of Losing Price ft. Rick Santelli

Rick Santelli joins Cem Karsan for a conversation that cuts through the noise. From the floor of the Cboe to the era of central bank primacy, Santelli reflects on how markets have been reshaped... not...

16 Heinä 202544min

SI356: The Anatomy of a CTA Recovery ft. Katy Kaminski

SI356: The Anatomy of a CTA Recovery ft. Katy Kaminski

Katy Kaminski returns to examine a moment in trend following that feels familiar... but isn’t. Drawing on new research, she and Niels explore how drawdowns resolve, why recovery is faster when markets...

12 Heinä 20251h 3min

ALO30: The Quiet Rewire of Portfolio Construction ft. Cian Walsh

ALO30: The Quiet Rewire of Portfolio Construction ft. Cian Walsh

Cian Walsh, Head of Hedge Funds and Private Debt at Formue, joins Alan Dunne to explore what it means to allocate capital when the macro regime, client expectations, and the structure of markets are ...

9 Heinä 20251h 4min

SI355: Drawdowns Don’t Lie, But They May Mislead ft. Alan Dunne

SI355: Drawdowns Don’t Lie, But They May Mislead ft. Alan Dunne

Markets have recovered fast - maybe too fast. Alan and Niels unpack what sits beneath the surface: a bond market brushing off record deficits, volatility draining from asset prices, and trend follower...

5 Heinä 202545min

OI17: The End of the Bull Market: What’s Next for Equities? ft. Asim Ghaffar

OI17: The End of the Bull Market: What’s Next for Equities? ft. Asim Ghaffar

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Asim Ghaffar, the founder and CIO of AG Capital, a Boston-based macro hedge fund. Asim explains why he believes insourcing rather than outsourcing the organ...

2 Heinä 20251h 9min

SI354: Everyone’s Different. Until They’re Not ft. Rob Carver

SI354: Everyone’s Different. Until They’re Not ft. Rob Carver

With markets drifting and conviction thinning, Rob Carver joins Niels to take stock of a moment that feels suspended... not quite crisis, not quite calm. They discuss why recent rule changes around ba...

28 Kesä 20251h 13min

GM84: What Everyone Saw, but No One Priced ft. Bob Elliott

GM84: What Everyone Saw, but No One Priced ft. Bob Elliott

Bob Elliott joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation about what happens when strong economic data masks a deeper structural shift. The income engine still runs, but tariffs, labor...

25 Kesä 20251h 15min

SI353: You Don’t Buy It for Returns. You Buy It Because It Works! ft. Yoav Git

SI353: You Don’t Buy It for Returns. You Buy It Because It Works! ft. Yoav Git

Some of the most effective portfolio components may generate little or no return on their own. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore that discomfort - why allocators often overlo...

21 Kesä 20251h 8min

Suosittua kategoriassa Liike-elämä ja talous

sijotuskasti
mimmit-sijoittaa
rss-rahapodi
psykopodiaa-podcast
rss-rahamania
herrasmieshakkerit
ostan-asuntoja-podcast
rss-seuraava-potilas
rss-20-30-40-podcast
rahapuhetta
rss-inderes-femme
rss-paasipodi
rss-myynnilla-on-asiaa-kert-kenner
taloudellinen-mielenrauha
rss-sami-miettinen-neuvottelija
yrittaja
raksapodi
rss-lahtijat
rss-startup-ministerio
rss-sisalto-kuntoon