We Were Right: Kaiser and Jeremy Reunite to Riff on the China Vibe Shift

This week on Sinica, I welcome back Jeremy Goldkorn, co-founder of the show and my longtime co-host, to revisit the "vibe shift" we first discussed back in February. Seven months on, what we sensed then has fully borne out — there's been a measurable softening in American attitudes toward China, reflected not just in polling data but in media coverage, podcast discussions, and public discourse. We dig into what's driving this shift: the chaos of American politics making China look competent by comparison, the end of Wolf Warrior diplomacy, the gutting of China hawks in the Trump administration, Trump's own transactional G2 enthusiasm, and the generational divide in how younger Americans encounter China through TikTok rather than legacy media. We also discuss the limits of this shift, the dangers of overcorrection, and what it feels like to watch the fever break after years of panic and absolutism in U.S.-China discourse.

5:29 – The [beep] show in America as the biggest factor

8:38 – China hawks deflated: from Pompeo to Navarro's pivot to India

11:21 – Ben Smith's piece on the end of a decade of China hawkism

13:30 – Eric Schmidt and Selina Xu's Atlantic piece on tech decoupling

17:17 – Long-form China podcasts: Dwarkesh Patel with Arthur Kroeber, Lex Fridman with Keyu Jin

19:35 – Jeremy's personal vibe shift: distance from The China Project and renewed perspective

23:33 – The world turning to predictability and stability

26:05 – The Chicago Council poll: dramatic shift away from containment

29:09 – The generational shift: TikTok, infrastructure porn, and Gen Z's globalized worldview

31:15 – The end of Wolf Warrior diplomacy and why it mattered

37:03 – Kaiser's "Great Reckoning" essay and why it didn't get the usual hate

39:00 – The destruction of Twitter and the vicious China discourse culture

41:10 – The pendulum swinging too far: China fanboys and new hubris

43:20 – How the vibe shift looks from inside China

Paying it forward: Echo Tang (Berlin Independent Chinese Film Festival organizer) and Zhu Rikun (New York Chinese Independent Film Festival organizer)

Recommendations:

Jeremy: Ja No Man: Growing Up in Apartheid Era South Africa by Richard Poplak

Kaiser: Rhyming Chaos podcast with Jeremy Goldkorn and Maria Repnikova

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