Signals & Levers: Systems Thinking to Navigate Software Delivery Illusions - Elisabeth Hendrickson & Joel Tosi

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Why do the same software delivery illusions keep fooling smart engineering teams? Elisabeth and Joel show how systems thinking, through signals and levers, helps you spot the illusions of progress, predictability, and control before they cost you.

In this episode, Elisabeth Hendrickson and Joel Tosi, co-authors of Signals & Levers, share the story behind the book and trace the “software crisis” back to a 1968 NATO conference, arguing it never actually went away. They explain why software delivery is an adaptive sociotechnical system, and why treating it as a simple linear process leads leaders to pull the wrong levers.

Elisabeth breaks down why proxy metrics like velocity are made-up numbers dressed up as science, and why cycle time tells a truer story. Joel walks through the CREATE framework (capacity, risk, execution, adaptability, trust, and economics), and how it can help leaders spot unintended consequences before they happen. They also dig into the three illusions leaders live under: illusion of progress, predictability, and control.

The conversation closes with a candid look at where AI fits into all of this, when it amplifies good systems, when it makes bad ones worse, and why optimizing for learning matters more than ever.

Timestamps:

• (00:00:00) Trailer & Intro
• (00:02:34) The Backstory Behind “Signals & Levers”
• (00:05:55) Why Has the ‘Software Crisis’ Never Actually Gone Away?
• (00:08:41) Why Do the Same Software Development Problems Keep Appearing?
• (00:10:55) What is an Adaptive Sociotechnical System?
• (00:15:09) Why Do Business Executives Fail to Understand Software Development?
• (00:20:03) What Are Signals and Levers in Engineering Leadership?
• (00:24:31) What Makes Proxy Metrics Like Velocity and Lines of Code Dangerous?
• (00:28:23) Are DORA Metrics a Good Proxy for Software Development Productivity?
• (00:32:50) What is the CREATE Framework for Avoiding Unintended Consequences?
• (00:38:26) How Do You Quantify and Apply the CREATE Framework?
• (00:44:09) What Are the Three Illusions That Leaders Face in Software Delivery?
• (00:50:27) Will AI Truly Speed Up Software Development?
• (00:55:55) How Should Leaders Integrate AI Into Systems Thinking?
• (01:00:53) Can AI Be a Thinking Partner for Systems Thinking?
• (01:04:26) Why Is the U-Curve a Powerful Tool for Modern Leadership?
• (01:09:17) 3 Tech Lead Wisdom

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Elisabeth Hendrickson & Joel Tosi’s Bio
Elisabeth Hendrickson is a technology leader with 30+ years of experience, having served as VP R&D at a public company and VP Engineering at a Series B startup. She’s the author of Explore It! and There’s Always a Duck, and now helps tech leaders improve collaboration, decision-making, and execution.

Joel Tosi has spent over 25 years delivering software products. For the past decade, he’s helped teams see the systemic issues holding them back and stop “change theater,” using the techniques from Signals & Levers to give everyone a shared view of reality. He’s presented these ideas internationally for over five years.

Follow Elisabeth & Joel:

• LinkedIn (Elisabeth) – linkedin.com/in/testobsessed
• LinkedIn (Joel) – linkedin.com/in/joel-tosi-531a3b
• Website – signalsandlevers.com
• Signals & Levers – itrevolution.com/product/signals-and-levers
• Signals & Levers workshops – maven.com/signalsandlevers

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