#184 – Zvi Mowshowitz on sleeping on sleeper agents, and the biggest AI updates since ChatGPT

#184 – Zvi Mowshowitz on sleeping on sleeper agents, and the biggest AI updates since ChatGPT

Many of you will have heard of Zvi Mowshowitz as a superhuman information-absorbing-and-processing machine — which he definitely is. As the author of the Substack Don’t Worry About the Vase, Zvi has spent as much time as literally anyone in the world over the last two years tracking in detail how the explosion of AI has been playing out — and he has strong opinions about almost every aspect of it.

Links to learn more, summary, and full transcript.

In today’s episode, host Rob Wiblin asks Zvi for his takes on:

  • US-China negotiations
  • Whether AI progress has stalled
  • The biggest wins and losses for alignment in 2023
  • EU and White House AI regulations
  • Which major AI lab has the best safety strategy
  • The pros and cons of the Pause AI movement
  • Recent breakthroughs in capabilities
  • In what situations it’s morally acceptable to work at AI labs

Whether you agree or disagree with his views, Zvi is super informed and brimming with concrete details.


Zvi and Rob also talk about:

  • The risk of AI labs fooling themselves into believing their alignment plans are working when they may not be.
  • The “sleeper agent” issue uncovered in a recent Anthropic paper, and how it shows us how hard alignment actually is.
  • Why Zvi disagrees with 80,000 Hours’ advice about gaining career capital to have a positive impact.
  • Zvi’s project to identify the most strikingly horrible and neglected policy failures in the US, and how Zvi founded a new think tank (Balsa Research) to identify innovative solutions to overthrow the horrible status quo in areas like domestic shipping, environmental reviews, and housing supply.
  • Why Zvi thinks that improving people’s prosperity and housing can make them care more about existential risks like AI.
  • An idea from the online rationality community that Zvi thinks is really underrated and more people should have heard of: simulacra levels.
  • And plenty more.

Chapters:

  • Zvi’s AI-related worldview (00:03:41)
  • Sleeper agents (00:05:55)
  • Safety plans of the three major labs (00:21:47)
  • Misalignment vs misuse vs structural issues (00:50:00)
  • Should concerned people work at AI labs? (00:55:45)
  • Pause AI campaign (01:30:16)
  • Has progress on useful AI products stalled? (01:38:03)
  • White House executive order and US politics (01:42:09)
  • Reasons for AI policy optimism (01:56:38)
  • Zvi’s day-to-day (02:09:47)
  • Big wins and losses on safety and alignment in 2023 (02:12:29)
  • Other unappreciated technical breakthroughs (02:17:54)
  • Concrete things we can do to mitigate risks (02:31:19)
  • Balsa Research and the Jones Act (02:34:40)
  • The National Environmental Policy Act (02:50:36)
  • Housing policy (02:59:59)
  • Underrated rationalist worldviews (03:16:22)

Producer and editor: Keiran Harris
Audio Engineering Lead: Ben Cordell
Technical editing: Simon Monsour, Milo McGuire, and Dominic Armstrong
Transcriptions and additional content editing: Katy Moore

Episoder(326)

Rebuilding after apocalypse: What 13 experts say about bouncing back

Rebuilding after apocalypse: What 13 experts say about bouncing back

What happens when civilisation faces its greatest tests?This compilation brings together insights from researchers, defence experts, philosophers, and policymakers on humanity’s ability to survive and...

15 Jul 20254h 26min

#220 – Ryan Greenblatt on the 4 most likely ways for AI to take over, and the case for and against AGI in <8 years

#220 – Ryan Greenblatt on the 4 most likely ways for AI to take over, and the case for and against AGI in <8 years

Ryan Greenblatt — lead author on the explosive paper “Alignment faking in large language models” and chief scientist at Redwood Research — thinks there’s a 25% chance that within four years, AI will b...

8 Jul 20252h 50min

#219 – Toby Ord on graphs AI companies would prefer you didn't (fully) understand

#219 – Toby Ord on graphs AI companies would prefer you didn't (fully) understand

The era of making AI smarter just by making it bigger is ending. But that doesn’t mean progress is slowing down — far from it. AI models continue to get much more powerful, just using very different m...

24 Jun 20252h 48min

#218 – Hugh White on why Trump is abandoning US hegemony – and that’s probably good

#218 – Hugh White on why Trump is abandoning US hegemony – and that’s probably good

For decades, US allies have slept soundly under the protection of America’s overwhelming military might. Donald Trump — with his threats to ditch NATO, seize Greenland, and abandon Taiwan — seems hell...

12 Jun 20252h 48min

#217 – Beth Barnes on the most important graph in AI right now — and the 7-month rule that governs its progress

#217 – Beth Barnes on the most important graph in AI right now — and the 7-month rule that governs its progress

AI models today have a 50% chance of successfully completing a task that would take an expert human one hour. Seven months ago, that number was roughly 30 minutes — and seven months before that, 15 mi...

2 Jun 20253h 47min

Beyond human minds: The bewildering frontier of consciousness in insects, AI, and more

Beyond human minds: The bewildering frontier of consciousness in insects, AI, and more

What if there’s something it’s like to be a shrimp — or a chatbot?For centuries, humans have debated the nature of consciousness, often placing ourselves at the very top. But what about the minds of o...

23 Mai 20253h 34min

Don’t believe OpenAI’s “nonprofit” spin (emergency pod with Tyler Whitmer)

Don’t believe OpenAI’s “nonprofit” spin (emergency pod with Tyler Whitmer)

OpenAI’s recent announcement that its nonprofit would “retain control” of its for-profit business sounds reassuring. But this seemingly major concession, celebrated by so many, is in itself largely me...

15 Mai 20251h 12min

The case for and against AGI by 2030 (article by Benjamin Todd)

The case for and against AGI by 2030 (article by Benjamin Todd)

More and more people have been saying that we might have AGI (artificial general intelligence) before 2030. Is that really plausible? This article by Benjamin Todd looks into the cases for and against...

12 Mai 20251h

Populært innen Fakta

fastlegen
dine-penger-pengeradet
relasjonspodden-med-dora-thorhallsdottir-kjersti-idem
treningspodden
foreldreradet
rss-strid-de-norske-borgerkrigene
jakt-og-fiskepodden
rss-sunn-okonomi
sinnsyn
takk-og-lov-med-anine-kierulf
merry-quizmas
gravid-uke-for-uke
rss-kunsten-a-leve
hverdagspsyken
rss-kull
hagespiren-podcast
rss-var-forste-kaffe
fryktlos
rss-mann-i-krise-med-sagen
lederskap-nhhs-podkast-om-ledelse