100 Days till Hurricane Season 2025

100 Days till Hurricane Season 2025

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook and Preparedness

Purpose: To provide a summary of early predictions for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and offer recommendations for preparedness based on current information.

Key Themes:

  • Hurricane Season Timing: The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st to November 30th. However, storms can and have developed outside of these dates. The eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to November 30, while the central Pacific season (including Hawaii) runs June 1 through November 30.
  • Early Predictions for 2025: Initial outlooks suggest an average to slightly above-average hurricane season in the Atlantic. However, experts caution that early predictions are subject to change.
  • "Looking ahead to the 2025 season, early outlooks from various weather organizations suggest an average to slightly above-average season. However, experts caution that early predictions are prone to errors." - Fox Weather
  • ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) Influence: ENSO is a critical factor influencing hurricane activity.
  • Currently in a waning La Niña phase (late 2024), expected to transition to a neutral state in 2025.
  • Neutral ENSO years have historically produced a wide range of hurricane activity.
  • "Historically, neutral ENSO years have produced a range of hurricane activity, from a below-average number of cyclones to well above-average seasons, depending on variables such as sea surface temperatures, wind patterns and other atmospheric factors." - Fox Weather
  • According to research from Florida State University, the Florida Peninsula and the Gulf Coast are especially affected during neutral ENSO years.
  • Sea Surface Temperatures: Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, could contribute to increased tropical development.
  • "The Caribbean is already warm enough to sustain tropical activity... The Gulf is several degrees warmer than average for this time of the year, and if sustained for several months, that could lead to more development." - Weather.com
  • Importance of Early Preparation: The documents stress that preparing now is crucial, not waiting until a storm is imminent.

Key Facts and Ideas:

  • 2024 Season Recap: The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season had 18 named storms, including 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. This is considered an active year, but below expectations of early forecasts.
  • An average season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes with an ACE value of around 122.
  • Pre-Season Storms: Storms can and do form before the official June 1st start date. Examples cited: Tropical Storm Arlene (2023), Tropical Storm Bonnie (2016), Hurricane Alex (2016), Tropical Storm Beryl (2012).
  • "Many recent years have had storms develop before June 1, the official start of hurricane season." - Weather.com
  • Hurricane Names: The naming list for the 2025 season is provided, with Andrea being the first name. Dexter replaces Dorian on the list.
  • "The first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Andrea, followed by Barry, Chantal and Dexter. The name Dexter replaces Dorian, which was retired after the 2019 season." - Fox Weather

Episoder(208)

Hurricane Milton - Storm Surge Height Forecast Scenarios

Hurricane Milton - Storm Surge Height Forecast Scenarios

SummaryHurricane Milton is headed for the state of Florida and we dissect the analysis of the potential storm surge impact, drawing comparisons to Hurricane Michael's landfall in 2018. Counterclockwise rotation of hurricanes, the storm surge is significantly lower on the left side of the eye (north side in Milton's case). Two scenarios are presented, one with Milton making landfall north of the Skyway Bridge and the other with Milton making landfall south. Meteorologist Bryan Bennett, who came up with this analysis gives us surge heights for various locations under both scenarios, highlighting the significant difference in surge flooding depending on Milton's landfall location. Including places like Sanibel Island, Ana Maria Island, downtown Tampa, St. Petersburg, Madeira Beach, Tarpon Springs and New Port Richey.Ultimately, please remember the importance of staying informed by following official forecasts and evacuation orders.

8 Okt 202410min

Hurricane Milton: Tampa Bay & Florida West Coast Flood Scenarios

Hurricane Milton: Tampa Bay & Florida West Coast Flood Scenarios

Hurricane Milton, a rapidly intensified to a Category 5 hurricane yesterday, and is expected to make landfall on Florida's west coast late Wednesday/Early Thursday. The storm is predicted to cause significant storm surge, especially in the Tampa Bay area, with potential for flooding up to 15 feet above normal. The storm's forecast increase in size will also produce widespread strong winds and heavy rainfall, increasing the risk of flash flooding. The local emergency managers have issued evacuation orders for areas in the path of the storm, and it is imperative that residents heed these warnings and prepare for extended power outages.

8 Okt 20246min

Flooding: How to Prepare, What to Expect, What to Do

Flooding: How to Prepare, What to Expect, What to Do

With Hurricane Milton, approaching Florida here are flood specific tips to help you out. Partial list at the bottom…A survivor of Hurricane Ian's flooding shares valuable advice based on their experience. They emphasize proactive measures to prepare for potential flooding, such as raising valuables off the floor, securing important documents, and preparing essential items like flashlights, medication, and pet supplies. The source also provides post-flood guidance, focusing on prioritizing safety, organizing debris, and meticulously documenting repair expenses. It stresses financial responsibility by recommending against insurance fraud and encourages seeking assistance from various resources like FEMA, the Red Cross, and county programs. The author highlights the importance of remaining calm, acknowledging that while the situation may feel overwhelming, it is possible to rebuild and overcome the adversity.Facebook Post from Brandy Barber:As a Florida Shores Hurricane Ian Flood Victim— here are some things I’d wished I’d thought of/things we did. (Since you cant control it, youll want to have your head in the game. This isn’t to cause fear, it’s to equip people because we’ve been through it and wish we would’ve known. Hindsight is always 20/20). If you think your home could flood with recent happenings/track record, then maybe pay attention. We got through it and if you do flood, I promise you will too. These things may seem extreme but trust me, at the first site of our yard flooding, and this is what we are doing: 🌀 BEFORE YOU FLOOD/PREVENTIVE MEASURES: 🌀•have your volume on/download apps. A flash flood warning woke me up and saved me from losing way more than I could’ve. •Documents, books, things in low drawers, pictures or basically anything on lower ground, move to countertops. Know exactly where your important info is in case you need it. That includes for your car, we lost 3 of those too. •We lost all electric appliances because they were in our low kitchen cabinets. Move them up higher (food processor, crockpot, griddles). •dry food- get out of lower cabinets. You’re going to be hungry while you wait for rescue. We had hot cheese and grapes to eat. Don’t be us. •We kept our bandaids/sanitary stuff/meds/blow dryers in a low bathroom cabinet and lost it all. Anything you think you might need that isn’t in a bottle, move it up the night before. •Turn your breaker off as soon as you start flooding even if your power is already out because you won’t be thinking of it, trust me. Somehow my magical husband did, but I sure didn’t. This can hurt you or a lineman when it back feeds. •watch out for extension cords from your generator into the home with standing water. Seems silly to tell you that, but your brain is going to be in shock already, so let’s not shock the rest of you. •If you have gas cans ready for your generator, don’t set them on the ground!!! Ours floated away and created toxic water all around us and in our house. •have a bucket of some sort to keep anything electronic dry for immediate use. (Phone/flash lights). •Get your pet food off of the ground. Have leashes on the table next to your food to get ready to leave on a moment’s notice •Know where your paddle board/kayak is if you have one and be ready to use it. It saved us •if your dog crates are on the floor, put them on your kitchen table or anywhere off the ground. We did this trudging through two feet of water and it wasn’t fun… Search for this Post on Facebook as text is limited here… I’ve reshared on my personal Facebook Page https://www.facebook.com/pontiac51

8 Okt 20248min

Milton Now a Major Hurricane - Storm Surge to 12’ - Evacuations Begin Today

Milton Now a Major Hurricane - Storm Surge to 12’ - Evacuations Begin Today

Florida officials urge residents to take necessary precautions, such as checking their evacuation zones, preparing disaster supply kits, and finding a safe place to stay. They also emphasize the importance of leaving early to avoid traffic congestion and delays, noting that it may also take several days to return home after the storm passes. Milton is now a category three major hurricane with winds of 120 mph and is still expected to continue strengthening. Although unfavorable upper level winds may cause the storm to weaken prior to landfall, 12 foot storm surge is still a deadly concern. Remember to run from the water and hide from the wind… you don’t have to evacuate far if you are in an evacuation zone as it’s best to stay as close to home as possible. Check out the state of Florida’s emergency management website for more information on preparation and linking you up to your counties evacuation zone maps. Of course you can always search for your county evacuation zone map directly. https://www.floridadisaster.org/

7 Okt 202412min

Hurricane Milton - 145 MPH Winds Forecast - Florida Peninsula on Alert

Hurricane Milton - 145 MPH Winds Forecast - Florida Peninsula on Alert

Hurricane Milton, currently over the Gulf of Mexico, is intensifying and projected to become a major hurricane. The hurricane is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of Florida, potentially bringing life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. Residents in the Florida Peninsula are advised to monitor the storm's progress and follow the guidance of local officials.

7 Okt 202410min

Hurricane Hunters Say Milton is Rapidly Intensifying as We Look at Different Landfall Scenarios

Hurricane Hunters Say Milton is Rapidly Intensifying as We Look at Different Landfall Scenarios

Sunday afternoon update on Hurricane Milton, which is rapidly intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico. Details on the hurricane's current location, movement, and projected path, indicating that it is expected to become a major hurricane and approach the west coast of Florida by midweek. Hazards, including storm surge and heavy rainfall which could lead to flooding, and dangerous surf conditions along the Gulf Coast are a concern especially near and south of the landfall location. Points to the north of the center of circulation could see stronger wins and rain then on the so-called “dirty side“ which would normally be on the southside interaction with a jet streak the storm could be a little bit different. We looked at scenarios with, the potential for one north of Tampa Bay and a scenario for south of Tampa Bay.

6 Okt 202412min

Hurricane Evacuation & Preparedness Tips, Even for Your  EV

Hurricane Evacuation & Preparedness Tips, Even for Your EV

As Milton heads toward Florida, here’s some guidance on preparing for the storm, particularly focusing on the potential dangers associated with lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles. Understanding and mitigating the risks of battery fires, especially when vehicles are damaged by floodwaters is important to your safety. Will give you some tips on food storage, water conservation, and securing important documents. We highlight the importance of having a plan for evacuating, staying safe, and ensuring access to essential services in the aftermath of a storm.

6 Okt 202412min

Rapid Intensification - Milton Forecast to be a Category 3 Hurricane

Rapid Intensification - Milton Forecast to be a Category 3 Hurricane

Tropical Storm Milton is strengthening rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to become a major hurricane by the middle of the week. The storm is expected to make landfall on the west coast of Florida, bringing the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds. Heavy rainfall is also expected to affect portions of Florida, leading to the risk of flooding. The storm's exact track and intensity remain uncertain, but there is growing concern about the potential for significant impacts on the Florida Peninsula.

6 Okt 202410min

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