Everything is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World

The COVID-19 pandemic was a devastating global event, killing more than seven million people, straining the fabric of societies, and shaking the foundations of the world economy. And yet, as horrifying as the experience was, COVID-19 was not “The Big One” — the dreaded pandemic that haunts the nightmares of epidemiologists and public health officials everywhere. That far deadlier outbreak is still ahead of us, and it will reshape life across the planet unless we’re ready for it. In this episode, Dr. Michael Osterholm, one of the world’s leading infectious disease experts, explains what we got wrong, what we got right, and what it all reveals about our preparedness for the next great pandemic. Michael Osterholm is Regents Professor and McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health at the University of Minnesota, where he founded and directs the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP). An internationally renowned epidemiologist with fifty years of experience, he's led major outbreak investigations worldwide and authored over 350 papers. He served as a U.S. State Department science envoy from 2017-2019. His new book is The Big One: How We Must Prepare for Future Deadly Pandemics.

27 Sep 1h 5min

Common knowledge is necessary for coordination, for making arbitrary but complementary choices like driving on the right, using paper currency, and coalescing behind a political leader or movement. It’s also necessary for social coordination. Humans have a sixth sense for common knowledge, and we create it with signals like laughter, tears, blushing, eye contact, and blunt speech. But people also go to great lengths to avoid common knowledge—to ensure that even if everyone knows something, they can’t know that everyone else knows they know it. And so we get rituals like benign hypocrisy, veiled bribes and threats, sexual innuendo, and pretending not to see the elephant in the room. Pinker shows how the hidden logic of common knowledge can make sense of many of life’s enigmas: financial bubbles and crashes, revolutions that come out of nowhere, the posturing and pretense of diplomacy, the eruption of social media shaming mobs and academic cancel culture, the awkwardness of a first date. Steven Pinker is the Johnstone Professor of Psychology at Harvard University. He is an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences, a two-time Pulitzer Prize finalist, and one of Time’s “100 Most Influential People in the World Today.” He has won many prizes for his teaching, his research on language, cognition, and social relations, and his twelve books. His new book is When Everyone Knows That Everyone Knows: Common Knowledge and the Mysteries of Money, Power, and Everyday Life.

23 Sep 1h 35min

Jim Lampley’s story is a 50-year travelog of an unlikely career that catalogs the evolution of sports television—from his emergence as the first sideline reporter, through hosting and covering 14 Olympics, to working with all major sports networks. In this episode, Lampley reflects on his experiences in boxing, the evolution of the sport, and the genius of athletes like Muhammad Ali and George Foreman. The conversation also explores the unpredictability of life and how chance events shape our paths, the importance of mentorship, and the impact of performance-enhancing drugs. Lampley offers insights into the current state of journalism, emphasizing the importance of truth and objectivity amidst the challenges posed by social media and economic incentives. He also reflects on the complex legacy of O.J. Simpson and shares anecdotes about some of his other friends, including the beloved actor (and avid golfer) Jack Nicholson. Jim Lampley is a Hall of Fame sportscaster with 50 years of on-site experience at numerous live sports events, including the Super Bowl, Wimbledon, and 14 Olympics. For 30 years, he was the face and voice of HBO World Championship Boxing, calling some of the sport’s most iconic fights—including bouts featuring Muhammad Ali, Mike Tyson, George Foreman, and Floyd Mayweather. A three-time Emmy winner and International Boxing Hall of Fame inductee, his new book is It Happened!

20 Sep 1h 22min

In this solo commentary, Michael Shermer reflects on the assassination of Charlie Kirk and places it in the larger context of political violence, the psychology of radicalization, the dangers of false beliefs, and the role of free speech in intellectual discourse.

17 Sep 27min

Science writer Nicholas Wade explains how human nature continues to shape—and sometimes destabilize—modern civilization, and argues that ignoring the effects of human nature on politics is one of society’s greatest mistakes. Drawing on anthropology, evolutionary biology, and history, Wade shows how deep-rooted traits not only shape the outcomes of certain political beliefs and systems, but also affect how people form families, religion, and social order. Nicholas Wade has worked at Nature and Science, and, for many years, at The New York Times, where he was an editorial writer and science editor. He is the author of four books about recent human evolution. His latest is The Origin of Politics: How Evolution and Ideology Shape the Fate of Nations.

13 Sep 1h 37min

Parenting today often feels like an uphill battle, with technology invading every corner of our kids’ lives. From the rise of social media addiction to the growing mental health crisis among children and teens, parents are grappling with how they can create a healthy, balanced relationship with technology for their kids. Drawing on her decades as a psychologist studying the impact of technology and mental health, Jean Twenge offers evidence-based advice for raising independent and well-rounded children. Jean Twenge, a professor of psychology at San Diego State University and the author of more than 190 scientific publications and several books based on her research, including Generation Me, iGen, and Generations, which we discussed on this show. Her research has been covered in Time, The Atlantic, Newsweek, and The Washington Post. She has also been featured on Today, Good Morning America, Fox and Friends, CBS This Morning, Real Time with Bill Maher, and NPR. Her new book is Ten Rules for Raising Kids in a High-Tech World.

9 Sep 30min

In this episode of The Michael Shermer Show, Michael Shermer interviews Alan Stern, a prominent planetary scientist and astronaut. Stern discusses his recent suborbital flight, the differences between government and private space initiatives, and the scientific implications of UFO sightings. He also shares insights about the evolution and future of space exploration, including details about the rarely talked about upcoming termination of dozens of already paid-for NASA missions. Alan Stern is a planetary scientist, astronaut, and author. NASA has selected him to be the first researcher NASA funded to fly to space as a crewmember aboard a commercial suborbital space mission. Since 2001 he has led NASA’s $900M New Horizons mission that explored the Pluto system and is now exploring the Kuiper Belt—the farthest exploration of worlds in history. In 2007 and 2008, Dr. Stern served as NASA’s chief of all space and Earth science programs, directing its $5B/year Science Mission Directorate (SMD), with 93 separate flight missions and a program of over 3,000 research grants. In 2022, he took part in a deep-sea expedition to explore the RMS Titanic in a submersible.

6 Sep 1h 5min

In a radical new story about the birth of our species, evolutionary biologist Madeleine Beekman argues that it was not hunting, fighting, or tool-making that forced early humans to speak, but the inescapable need to care for our children. Beekman reveals the “happy accidents” hidden in our molecular biology—DNA, chromosomes, and proteins—that led to one of the most fateful events in the history of life on Earth: our giving birth to babies earlier in their development than our hominid cousins the Neanderthals and Denisovans. Faced with highly dependent infants requiring years of nurturing and protection, early human communities needed to cooperate and coordinate, and it was this unprecedented need for communication that triggered the creation of human language—and changed everything. Madeleine Beekman is professor emerita of evolutionary biology and behavioral ecology at the University of Sydney, Australia. Her new book is The Origin of Language.

2 Sep 1h 11min