225: The Pattern Is Locked In. Now the Real Questions Begin for 2025–26 Weather with Gary Lezak

This week’s episode dives into a weather pattern that has finally revealed its true shape — and it’s a complicated one. Meteorologist Gary Lezak joins Lauren to break down the emerging 70–75 day LRC cycle, the extreme wind event sweeping across the Rockies, why Colorado’s snowpack continues to disappoint, and what all of this means for drought watchers across Kansas, Nebraska, and the central plains. From fire risk to January storm setups to the shifting influences of ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation, Gary lays out the real signals producers should track heading into winter and early spring.

Links

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Youtube⁠ -https://www.youtube.com/@Weather2020
Follow Gary on X ⁠- https://x.com/glezak
CattleUSA Insurance - https://info.cattleusainsurance.com/l/1102253/2025-06-04/288f5m
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The Next Generation Podcast Website - https://www.thenextgenag.com/

Takeaways
• A major high-wind event is sweeping Colorado and the northern plains due to the pattern’s setup.
• Early analysis shows this year’s LRC cycle may be 70–75 days long — much longer than last year.
• An anchor ridge near Colorado/Kansas is limiting snowfall and contributing to warm, dry conditions.
• Colorado ski areas remain well below normal snowpack, increasing long-term drought and fire concerns.
• The plains have been hit-or-miss: some Kansas areas are near average moisture despite the dry pattern.
• Phase one of the LRC favors storm tracks through MT/ND/SD/IA, mostly missing Kansas and Nebraska.
• Phase two brings stronger West Coast storms — including a Christmas-week California system.
• January’s big risk window appears late January into early February, with potential for a plains ice/snow storm.
• ENSO is trending toward neutral by mid-January, which may improve plains moisture opportunities.
• AO/NAO have stayed mostly positive; if they dip negative, it could unlock the pattern’s storm potential.

Chapters
00:00 High Winds in Colorado and Why the Pattern Looks the Way It Does
02:45 Forecast Accuracy, Public Perception, and Why Influencers Undermine Real Meteorology
06:00 Understanding This Year’s Anchor Ridge and the Dry Rocky Mountain Setup
08:21 Fire Risk, Human-Caused Starts, and Dry Fuels Across the West
10:35 What Phase One and Phase Two Mean for January and the Plains
12:51 ENSO, AO, NAO and How They’ll Influence late-winter Storm Potential
15:18 Why January Could Flip — and What Producers Should Watch
17:04 Top-Secret Insight: The New Cycle Length and What It Means for Spring Planning

LRC cycle, long-range weather, plains drought, Colorado wind, fire risk, California storms, ENSO neutral, AO index, NAO index, planting season forecast, winter storm potential, ranch weather, agriculture forecast, Weather 2020