231: Where Will the Cattle Market Go as We Head Into 2026? with Samantha Cozza-Wright

Samantha Cozza-Wright joins the podcast for a post-Christmas market check-in, breaking down what a quiet holiday trade really tells us about where cattle markets are headed. With light volume, steady cash, and futures closing higher, the conversation turns quickly to the bigger forces shaping 2026. Samantha walks through Mexico border reopening expectations, seasonal demand drop-offs, Brazilian imports, and why transparency and risk management matter more than ever at these price levels. The episode closes with a clear message for producers: know your break-evens, understand your risk tolerance, and don’t head into the new year unprotected.

Links

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Takeaways

• Holiday trading was quiet, but live and feeder cattle futures closed higher across both front and deferred months.
• Negotiated fed cattle trade edged up to around $230, though volume remained light due to the holidays.
• A potential port-by-port reopening of the Mexico border is expected, but markets appear to have already priced it in.
• Seasonal demand for high-end beef cuts dropped immediately after Christmas, with weakness likely into January.
• February demand could see a short-term bump from Super Bowl buying, but a broader recovery may not come until March.
• Lifted Brazilian tariffs raise concerns about imported beef capturing more domestic demand, especially in ground beef.
• Increased imports could pressure domestic prices and slow herd expansion by shifting leverage back to packers.
• Heifer retention is starting to show up in the data, but the market must support those decisions moving forward.
• Livestock Risk Protection continues to be a key tool, especially as lenders prefer to see price protection in place.
• Samantha’s bottom line: know your numbers, trust your intuition, but don’t gamble at these levels without a safety net.

Chapters

00:00 Post-Christmas Check-In and Newborn Life
01:16 Holiday Trading: Futures, Cash, and Volume
02:15 Mexico Border Reopening and Market Reaction
03:00 Seasonal Demand Drop and Retail Price Pressure
04:29 Imports, Brazilian Beef, and Packer Leverage
06:16 Transparency, MCOOL, and Domestic Product Concerns
07:03 Heifer Retention, Volatility, and Market Stability
08:52 Risk Management, Break-Evens, and Closing Thoughts

cattle market, live cattle futures, feeder cattle, beef imports, Brazilian beef, Mexico border reopening, heifer retention, cattle risk management, livestock risk protection, beef demand, cattle industry 2026, producer margins