Supply Flows Resume

Wednesday, June 17, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures settled ~$75.39 (Jun 16), live quotes Jun 17 showing $76.30-$76.48. Fade trade accelerating. DEAL STATUS: Preliminary MOU reached Jun 14-15. Virtual signing reported. Formal signing ceremony Friday, Jun 19, Geneva. DEAL TERMS: 60-day ceasefire extension. Strait of Hormuz reopening, toll-free period expected. US naval blockade on Iranian ports lifted. Nuclear talks deferred to follow-up. IMPLICATION: Crude crashed from $90-$100 highs earlier Jun to $75-$76 now. That's $15-$25 drop in 3 weeks. Geopolitical premium gone. Supply flows resume. Oversupply thesis intact. Target was $70-$75. We're there. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Short any bounces above $80. Target $70. If crude breaks below $70, next target $65. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. NATURAL GAS: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (released Jun 11, covers week ending Jun 5): Total working gas 2,686 Bcf. Weekly net change +108 Bcf injection. Year-over-year 5 Bcf lower than Jun 2025. 5-year average 151 Bcf (+6%) above average 2,535 Bcf. REGIONAL BREAKDOWN: East 514 Bcf (+34, 2.2% above 5-yr avg). Midwest 610 Bcf (+37, 3.9% above 5-yr avg). Mountain 222 Bcf (+4, 29.8% above 5-yr avg). Pacific 304 Bcf (+6, 27.2% above 5-yr avg). South Central 1,037 Bcf (+28, 0.2% above 5-yr avg). SETUP: Storage ample. Injections strong. No weather shock yet. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Next storage report Jun 18 (week ending Jun 12). BOTTOM LINE: Crude—fade trade complete. $75-$76 target zone. Short any bounces above $80. Target $70. Gas—accumulation thesis intact. Storage ample. Accumulate $3.05-$3.15. Target $4.00+. Trade the data, not the headlines.

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