TTU62: Why Huge Market Shifts Are Great Reminders ft. Scot Billington of Covenant Capital Management

Richard Brennan joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following, where we discuss why the crisis we experience at the moment might be worse than previous crises, such as what was experienced in the 1970’s. We also discuss the turtle trading method and how ATR can be used for entering and exiting trades, how Richard adjusts his trailing stop according to the price and level of volatility and why simplicity is the most robust solution to deal with complex markets. Additionally, we address how Trend Following can be used as a diversification tool for your portfolio, the principle of return stacking and how it is used in Trend Following, why more people are turning away from the 60/40 portfolio and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:26 - The stark warning from Niall Ferguson07:01 - What happened this week?10:35 - Industry performance update12:47 - Q1, Irwin: Turtle trading and the use of ATR for position sizing23:19 - The relationship between trailing stop and volatility32:45 - Simplicity and sticking to your model39:32 - Is the 60/40 portfolio outdated?53:31 - The principle of return stacking01:04:52 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to...

11 Sep 20221h 7min

Today, we are joined by Cameron Dawson, CIO at NewEdge Wealth, who has a really unique background. We address how she allocate and construct her portfolios in a highly unstable and inflationary environment and why she prefesr to play on the smaller side of funds. We also discuss the importance of valuations and how it can help forecast long term returns and how she analyzes earnings and liquidity to understand and navigate an uncertain macro environment, the outlook for inflation and how the Fed might act to combat the economic instability as well as their process of recruiting external managers. Lastly, we discuss how narratives impact the markets and the importance of knowing the source of your returns, how to approach long-term investment to avoid buying at the top and selling at the bottom, as well as some sound advice for aspiring CIOs and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Cameron on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:10 - Introduction to Cameron and her work at NewEdge Wealth08:01 - Navigating in a tough environment14:31 - Their approach to asset allocation21:31 - The historical perspective29:56 - Getting comfort in an uncertain macro environment41:20 - Is high inflation here to stay?48:33 - What it will take for the Fed to call victory?53:18 - Bottom-Up or...

7 Sep 20221h 15min

Today, Alan Dunne joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following where we reflect on the ongoing instability in the markets and look back on the month of August. We also discuss behavioural biases and why we may need to distinguish between managed futures and trend following, an article by Quantica on the benefits of trend following and how it can without a doubt improve your portfolio. Lastly, we reflect on the annual event at Jackson Hole and the BIS talking about the challenges ahead, the 2% inflation target and how it can impact the economy if changed, the Volcker tightening cycle and the importance of narratives as well as an update on Jeremy Grantham’s super bubble hypothesis and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:01 - Summary of the week09:44 - Industry performance update11:46 - Reflecting on the month of August16:13 - Alan’s perspective on the Cliff Asness article28:01 - The undisputed benefits of Trend Following38:00 - Key takeaways from Jackson Hole46:00 - Comment from BIS49:45 - Are we leaving the 2% inflation target?53:54 - Lessons from the Volcker tightening cycle01:00:20 - Latest piece from Jeremy Grantham01:04:23 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your...

4 Sep 20221h 6min

Today, we are joined by Jason Morrow, Deputy CIO at Utah Retirement Systems, for a conversation on how portfolio management is carried out at a large pension fund. We discuss how Morrow approaches the objective and constraints of URS’s portfolio and the realized volatility over time, how they manage the challenges of an inflationary environment and balance their portfolio to mitigate risk, how they find the right mix of public and private equities and their approach to absolute return strategies. We also address the process of assembling a team of managers and evaluating quant strategies, how to mitigate behavioural biases when selecting manager, cultivating talent as a CIO and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Jason on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:35 - Introduction to Jason Morrow08:02 - Investment objective and constraints of URS’s portfolio13:21 - How does inflation affect URS's portfolio?20:27 - Building and balancing the portfolio24:29 - Public vs. private equities31:22 - Using multiple asset allocating strategies38:06 - Their approach to selecting managers41:15 - Evaluating quant strategies45:51 - Behavioural biases in manager selection50:27 - Return expectations setting for alts55:42 - Mastering...

31 Aug 20221h 8min

Jerry Parker joins me for a raw conversation on Trend Following, the day after Jerome Powell spoke at Jackson Hole on fighting inflation and achieving economic stability. We also discuss the pros and cons of CTA/Managed futures replication strategies and the importance of investing in your own fund as a manager, the evolution of Trend Following and why Trend Following might be the Perfect Portfolio. We touch on different ways of diversifying your portfolio and why correlation is not always reliable friend. Lastly, we discuss an article by Morgan Housel on why it is important to identify the core principles (in our case of Trend Following) and how incentives are the strongest force in the world, the importance of having confidence whilst being humble and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:51 - Summary of the week08:35 - Industry performance update12:21 - Discussion about CTA/Managed futures replication strategies 26:19 - Aligning incentives as a manager33:28 - Aspect article in Hedge Fund Journal46:47 - Article by Cliff Asness on Pure Trend Following51:33 - Crisis alpha vs the Perfect Portfolio01:03:40 - Article by Morgan Housel on following Core Principles01:11:15 - Confidence vs. Ability01:14:33 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are...

27 Aug 20221h 16min

Today, Cem Karsan and I reflect on previous conversations with guests on the Global Macro series and how they have developed us as investors. We also discuss the historical framework of the Fed and their role and power in the economy, how 40 years of monetary policy and technological revolution have caused historic inequality and how recessions have been handled throughout history. Additionally, we address the consequences of ultra low interest rates and high inflation and why we might see a loss of credibility in the Fed going forward, the importance of finding an edge in your investment strategy. Lastly, we discuss the strength of the dollar, how investors should position themselves in the wake of a Fourth Turning and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:54 - Looking back on previous GM guests and how they impacted our thinking09:17 - Thoughts on the Fed and a historical perspective21:11 - How much power and control does the Fed actually have?31:02 - Low interest rates... a bubble maker?40:03 - The inverted yield curve...a sign?49:26 - Using volatility as a guide for equity markets59:14 - What happens to the dollar?01:04:13 - What should investors be considering at this point?01:12:24 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your...

24 Aug 20221h 15min

This week, Mark Rzepczynsky joins us for our weekly update on Trend Following, at the end of yet another busy week for inflation watchers. Based on an article by Cliff Asness at AQR, we discuss why you want to own managed futures and why you want to avoid getting "carried away" as a Trend Follower, the dual mandate and the difference between strategy and running a business, innovation in Trend Following and why macro trends do not always translate to price trends. We also discuss how high inflation affects Trend Following and the importance of divergence, why turning points kill the real issue beyond inflation and using the 70 percent rule to make trading decisions, the difference between trend following and momentum and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro03:22 - What happened this week?13:36 - Industry performance update16:07 - AQR latest article on managed futures27:56 - The dual mandate and volatility "targeting"37:55 - The private equity issue and innovation in Trend Following43:48 - FT Article from Goldman Sachs about inflation and divergence49:25 - How turning points impact your overall TF returns53:17 - The 70 percent rule...and why it works for Trend Followers56:03 - Hedgehogs vs. Foxes and drought in market liquidity01:02:30 - Trend following vs. Momentum...can you tell the difference01:03:55 -...

20 Aug 20221h 11min

Today, Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42macro, joins us for a conversation on Global Macro from a broad perspective. We discuss the outlook for inflation and the implication it has on the markets going forward, the path to a more elevated inflation level and how we may get there, what we can learn from the past about inflation and advice for trading in an inflationary regime. Additionally, Darius explains how he and 42macro consider external factors, such as demographics and structural changes when trading and analyzing the markets and he describes the financial and political impact of approaching a new Fourth Turning. Lastly, we discuss portfolio construction and risk management frameworks, why it is important to be humble and honest about the uncertainty and unpredictability of the current state of the markets and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Darius on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 0:00 - Intro03:15 - Who is Darius Dale?06:48 - Darius's strategic perspective10:38 - What will happen to the inflation going forward?20:28 - Looking at the next 6-12 months26:18 - What about the longer term?31:39 - The historical perspective39:33 - What Darius is telling investors right now48:22 - Dealing with external factors58:36 - Factor correlation and clustering01:02:07...

17 Aug 20221h 11min