Ernie Tedeschi on Full Employment, the US Safe Harbor Premium, and the Current Path of R-Star

Ernie Tedeschi on Full Employment, the US Safe Harbor Premium, and the Current Path of R-Star

Ernie Tedeschi is the Director of Economics at the Budget Lab and is a visiting fellow at the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy. Recently, Ernie was a chief economist at the White House's Council of Economic Advisors, and he is also a returning guest to the podcast. Ernie rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the CEA and some of his recent work on the political risks to the US safe harbor premium and R-star. David and Ernie also discuss the benefits and healing properties of a high employment economy, Ernie's favorite measures of the labor market, the current and past trends in the path of R-Star, and more.

Transcript for this week's episode.

Ernie's Twitter: @ernietedeschi

Ernie's Budget Lab profile

David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Related Links:

*Political Risks to the U.S. Safe Harbor Premium* by Ernie Tedeschi

*Recent Movements in [R-star]: The Most Important Interest Rate That You have Never Heard Of* by Ernie Tedeschi

*The 2024 Economic Report of the President* by the White House Council of Economic Advisers

*The Fed Governor Who Proved Larry Summers Wrong* by Nick Timiraos

*Summers, Blanchard Say Waller's 'Soft-Landing' Paper Has Errors* by Craig Torres

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:01:49) – Ernie's Experience at the CEA

(00:09:15) – The Benefits and Healing Properties of a High Employment Economy

(00:15:28) – Ernie's Favorite Measures of the Labor Market

(00:20:17) – The Broader Debate Surrounding Labor Market Measures

(00:24:07) – The Basics of a US Safe Harbor Premium

(00:28:56) – Political Risk vs. Exorbitant Privilege

(00:33:46) – Debt Ceiling Crises as a Political Risk Scenario

(00:37:01) – Fiscal Dominance as a Political Risk Scenario

(00:43:25) – Outlining the Distinction Between Different R-Stars

(00:48:39) – Past and Current Trends in the Path of R-Stars

(00:54:46) – Assessing the Sources of High Productivity

(00:58:22) – Outro

Avsnitt(547)

Per Åsberg Sommar on the State of the Riksbank and Operating Systems Around the World

Per Åsberg Sommar on the State of the Riksbank and Operating Systems Around the World

Per Åsberg Sommar is a senior advisor in the markets department at the Swedish central bank. In Per's first appearance on the show, he discusses his career as a central banker, the history of the Riks...

5 Jan 58min

2025 Macro Musings Retrospective

2025 Macro Musings Retrospective

David Beckworth and producer Sam Alburger dive into the last year of Macro Musings. They discuss David's foray into Substack, their favorite episodes of the year, the most popular episodes of 2025, Da...

29 Dec 202556min

Veronique de Rugy on the Impending American Fiscal Crisis

Veronique de Rugy on the Impending American Fiscal Crisis

Veronique de Rugy is the George Gibbs Chair in Political Economy and a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. In Veronique's first appearance on Macro Musings she di...

22 Dec 202559min

Martha Gimbel on the Impact of AI and the Trade War on Labor Markets

Martha Gimbel on the Impact of AI and the Trade War on Labor Markets

Martha Gimbel is the executive director and co-founder of the Budget Lab at Yale. In Martha's first appearance on the show, she discusses the missing BLS job market data, the consequences of losing tw...

15 Dec 202555min

Laurence Bristow on What the Fed can Learn from the Reserve Bank of Australia

Laurence Bristow on What the Fed can Learn from the Reserve Bank of Australia

Laurence Bristow is a former staffer at the Reserve Bank of Australia and currently is a Vice President and Research Associate at the Bank Policy Institute. In Laurence's first appearance on the show,...

8 Dec 202553min

Austin Campbell on the Rise and Regulation of Dollar Backed Stablecoins

Austin Campbell on the Rise and Regulation of Dollar Backed Stablecoins

Austin Campbell runs Zero Knowledge Group, a consulting and advising firm in the digital assets space and is an adjunct professor at New York University's Stern School of Business. In Austin's first a...

1 Dec 202558min

Mike Bird on the Land Trap and How the History of Housing Impacts the Global Economy

Mike Bird on the Land Trap and How the History of Housing Impacts the Global Economy

Mike Bird is the Wall Street editor for The Economist magazine and is the author of The Land Trap: A New History of the World's Oldest Asset. Mike returns to the show to discuss the conclusion of Aben...

24 Nov 20251h 1min

Lukasz Rachel on Non-Ricardian Macroeconomic Policy and Its Implications for Inflation

Lukasz Rachel on Non-Ricardian Macroeconomic Policy and Its Implications for Inflation

Lukasz Rachel is a former Bank of England economist and currently is an assistant professor of economics at the University College of London. In Lukasz's first appearance on the show he discusses his ...

17 Nov 202551min

Populärt inom Business & ekonomi

framgangspodden
varvet
rss-jossan-nina
rss-svart-marknad
badfluence
svd-tech-brief
uppgang-och-fall
avanzapodden
bathina-en-podcast
rss-borsens-finest
rss-kort-lang-analyspodden-fran-di
rss-inga-dumma-fragor-om-pengar
rss-dagen-med-di
tabberaset
24fragor
kapitalet-en-podd-om-ekonomi
dynastin
kvalitetsaktiepodden
rikatillsammans-om-privatekonomi-rikedom-i-livet
lastbilspodden