The Human Risk Podcast7 Sep 2023

Dr Erica Thompson on Escape from Modelland

Why are we so reliant on models, how can they lead us astray, and what can we do about it?

On this episode, I’m exploring models. Of the mathematical kind, not the fashion or toy kind. Models interest me because so much of our world is run by them. Many of the things we take for granted in the 21st century have models either running or helping to run them.

When they work well, they enable things to happen that wouldn’t otherwise. But when they go wrong – as we’ve seen in the banking industry — there are serious consequences. The Human Risk angle on models is that models are designed, commissioned and used by people. As we know from people who blindly follow their GPS unit and drive into a river, we can often assume the models must be right. But what’s right in theory might not be in practice. The real world is often complex, and models don’t always capture nuances.

My guest is Dr. Erica Thompson. She’s the author of a fascinating book called ‘Escape from Model land: How mathematical models can lead us astray and what we can do about it’.

Erica is an Associate Professor of Modelling for Decision Making at University College Londons ’s Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy. She’s also a Fellow of the London Mathematical Laboratory, where she leads the research programme on Inference from Models, and a Visiting Senior Fellow at the LSE Data Science Institute. So, she’s very highly qualified to help us explore what models are, why they can go wrong and what we can do about it.

On the show, we talk about:

the use of models in decision-making across various contexts such as climate, insurance, finance, and economic risk assessment';
the limitations and complexities of models, particularly when predicting the physical impacts of climate change over the 21st century;
the importance of understanding and acknowledging the uncertainties and potential risks in manipulating models;
the significance of diversity in models and the concept of maximizing model diversity for robust and accurate inference;
the challenges of shifting to new models that can effectively represent different values and judgments and the difficulty in changing the system when vested interests and incentives are not aligned;
the importance of trust and the need for experts to be deeply embedded within society and responsive to its values; and
the role of science in shaping our optimism and understanding of challenges and the need for a more nuanced viewpoint about science and society.

To learn more about Erica, visit her personal website: https://www.ericathompson.co.uk/

For more on her book 'Escape from Model Land', visit https://www.ericathompson.co.uk/books/

To see episodes of the show you might have missed, visit www.humanriskpodcast.com

Det här avsnittet är hämtat från ett öppet RSS-flöde och publiceras inte av Podme. Det kan innehålla reklam.

Avsnitt(378)

Annie Wagstaff on The Joy of Curiosity

What’s the last thing you learned simply because you wanted to know?Episode summaryWhy do we feel the need to justify what we learn? My guest on this episode is Annie Wagstaff, a musician and composer...

23 Aug 1h

Paul Craven on Living With Uncertainty

What happens when someone who spends his life thinking about risk, decision-making and human behaviour is confronted with an uncertainty he simply can’t control?Episode summaryMy guest is Paul Craven,...

15 Aug 51min

Benji Wilson on why we rate everything

Why do we rate everything and why do we do so on a scale of one to five stars? What happens when systems designed to help us make better choices start influencing our behaviour in ways we don’t necess...

8 Aug 1h 4min

Mark Heywood on The Stories We Tell About Ourselves

What parts of yourself have you learned to hide in order to be taken seriously? My guest on this episode is Mark Heywood, a friend of the show, returning guest and someone I've collaborated with on a ...

2 Aug 1h 21min

Gill Kernick on Grenfell - the disaster we still haven't learned from

When something goes badly wrong, we investigate it. Reports are written. Recommendations are made. Lessons are identified. But do we actually learn them?Episode SummaryReturning to the show, Gill Kern...

21 Juli 57min

Anna Rössler on Finding Your Voice — Online, On Stage and At Work

What does jazz singing have to do with LinkedIn? More than you might think. This week's guest, Anna Rössler, has built a career helping senior leaders find their voice online while simultaneously deve...

5 Juli 1h 1min

David Grosse on The Unconvention

What happens when two people who spend their careers thinking about human behaviour meet in a London pub and start complaining about conferences? Apparently, they decide to organise one.Episode Summar...

25 Juni 48min

Freewheeling on Human Risk with Thomas Ableman

Why is it so hard to stop people playing vides, music or phone calls out loud on public transport — and what does that tell us about changing human behaviour? Show Summary This episode of The Human Ri...

11 Juni 45min