Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Next Great Quarterback?

Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Next Great Quarterback?

This week we have the NFL draft, which is an annual exercise in failure. Every year, some NFL team makes a disastrous quarterback decision but also overlooks a potential star. Why is it so damn hard to predict QB play in football? Are scouts stupid, or is the future just unknowable, or is hiring fundamentally chaotic, or is there something specific about quarterbacking that makes it uniquely difficult to forecast? The economist David Berri joins to share his research on why scouts are terrible at evaluating quarterbacks. His ideas shed light on larger questions like "What is talent, exactly?" and "Does anybody know what they're doing when they're hiring somebody for a new role?" Host: Derek Thompson Guest: David Berri Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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The Casino-ification of America

The Casino-ification of America

In 2017, Americans legally bet about $5 billion on sports. Last year, that number rose to $160 billion. Gambling hasn’t just taken over sports. It’s invaded culture, politics, and even international w...

20 Mars 1h 11min

"Yes, AI Is a Bubble. There Is No Question."

"Yes, AI Is a Bubble. There Is No Question."

The AI buildout continues to break records, as the hyperscalers pour hundreds of billions of dollars into chips and data centers, even as investors punish their stock prices. But the revenue side of t...

17 Mars 1h 9min

The Pill That Works Even When You Know It's Fake

The Pill That Works Even When You Know It's Fake

Why do placebo effects work, even when patients know that they're taking a sugar pill? How do "nocebo" effects work, and why do some people hold onto beliefs that they suspect might bring them pain an...

13 Mars 1h 11min

The Economic Crisis of the Iran War Goes Far Beyond Oil

The Economic Crisis of the Iran War Goes Far Beyond Oil

The Strait of Hormuz is the tiny bottleneck that could destabilize the global economy. As a critical passageway for crude oil, natural gas, and critical inputs for fertilizer, computer chips, and plas...

10 Mars 55min

"American Democracy as We Know It Might Not Survive This Technology"

"American Democracy as We Know It Might Not Survive This Technology"

What happens when the two biggest stories in the world—the Trump White House and the development of advanced artificial intelligence—collide? Well, nothing good, apparently. When contract negotiations...

9 Mars 1h 4min

Trump Is Doubling Down on Iran. How Should Democrats Respond?

Trump Is Doubling Down on Iran. How Should Democrats Respond?

Donald Trump’s polling has continued to edge down week after week. And yet approval of the Democratic Party is still stuck near its all-time low, according to Gallup and other surveys. One interpreta...

6 Mars 42min

The Four Ways That the Iran War Could End

The Four Ways That the Iran War Could End

Dramatic regime change. Moderate regime evolution. A calamitous regional conflict. Or … no change at all. Today we consider how the Iran conflict might evolve following the killing of Supreme Leader K...

3 Mars 55min

How Metrics Make Us Miserable

How Metrics Make Us Miserable

The modern world swims in numbers: work metrics, fitness metrics, health metrics, social media metrics. Sometimes the quantification of life can make things better. But very often, I think they force ...

27 Feb 1h 3min

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