E71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more

E71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more

0:00 David Sacks: Man for the people

0:50 Escalating tensions over Russia/Ukraine; nuclear scare; evolving forms of warfare

16:27 Assessing impact of economic sanctions: first, second and third-order effects; exit ramps for Putin and Russia

34:23 Reflecting on if taking NATO expansion off the table would have prevented war; Putin's risk of ruin; lessons learned so far

46:12 New version of economic warfare; possibility of a regime change; comparisons to the Cuban Missile Crisis; realist vs. idealist; lessons for Taiwan

1:05:22 Market impact, increased volatility, thinking in decades, managing risk

1:19:22 Car T-cell therapy breakthroughs and approvals; CRISPR patent controversy; Sacks makes a final point

Follow the besties:

https://twitter.com/chamath

https://linktr.ee/calacanis

https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

https://twitter.com/friedberg

Follow the pod:

https://twitter.com/theallinpod

https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast

Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1499535843207389186

https://www.onmanorama.com/news/world/2022/03/04/garry-kasparov-former-world-chess-champion-attacks-russian-president-vladimir-putin-ukraine-invasion-twitter.html

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1574056/world-war-3-russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-fiona-hill-us-national-security-council

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/nato-meets-ukraine-calls-no-fly-zone-hinder-russia-2022-03-04

https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1499587642115117059

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/opinion/ukraine-russia-war-zelensky.html

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LUKOY:OTCMKTS

https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/wheat

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1498873063378612227

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1499574209567199235

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/04/world/europe/lindsey-graham-putin-russia.html

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1499385705591709698

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-germany-still-blocking-arms-supplies/

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/germany-hike-defense-spending-scholz-says-further-policy-shift-2022-02-27/

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/germany-aims-get-100-energy-renewable-sources-by-2035-2022-02-28/

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/world/europe/switzerland-russian-assets-freeze.html

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/02/28/sweden-arms-ukraine/

https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2008/04-april/e0403h.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/biography-george-h-w-bush-slams-iron-ass-cheney-rumsfeld-n457911

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=RU

https://twitter.com/shellenbergermd/status/1499386637066727424

https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/the-wests-green-delusions-empowered?s=r

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/04/1084580235/russia-blocks-facebook-twitter

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/technology/ukraine-war-misinfo.html

https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1497834538843660291

https://www.indiatoday.in/fact-check/story/fact-check-russia-ukraine-war-old-woman-not-giving-invading-russian-soldiers-the-finger-1920479-2022-03-04

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1496998762496946203

https://twitter.com/morganhousel/status/1499484089082007552

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-pinned-war-stokes-stagflation-fears-2022-03-03/

https://twitter.com/zekejmiller/status/1499739582115553281

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/national-international/wheat-corn-prices-surge-amid-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/2774260/

https://www.myelomacrowd.org/janssen-s-cilta-cel-car-t-receives-fda-approval-for-relapsed-multiple-myeloma/

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/fda-approves-jjs-cell-based-multiple-myeloma-therapy-blood-cancer-treatment-wsj-2022-03-01/

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/research/a2-bios-activator-blocker-car-t-cell-therapies-show-early-promise-solid-cancers

https://www.wsj.com/articles/crispr-patent-gene-editing-dispute-11646187911

https://twitter.com/MZHemingway/status/1499588624664657926

Avsnitt(286)

AI Psychosis, America's Broken Social Fabric, Trump Takes Over DC Police, Is VC Broken?

AI Psychosis, America's Broken Social Fabric, Trump Takes Over DC Police, Is VC Broken?

(0:00) Bestie intros! (4:45) AI Psychosis: what it looks like and why it's happening (20:13) Why the social fabric in America is breaking down (35:55) Fixing the incentives that created the student debt crisis (48:52) Trump takes federal control of DC police (1:05:39) Venture Capital: is it broken and what it will look like in the future? Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/urban-survival/202507/the-emerging-problem-of-ai-psychosis https://openai.com/index/how-we%27re-optimizing-chatgpt https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25910392 https://www.reddit.com/r/MyBoyfriendIsAI https://time.com/7307589/ai-psychosis-chatgpt-mental-health https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1953811277463122162 https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/major-depression https://www.visualcapitalist.com/inflation-chart-tracks-price-changes-us-goods-services https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PtX8BNLn_c https://nypost.com/2021/05/01/teachers-union-collaborated-with-cdc-on-school-reopening-emails https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-threatens-federal-takeover-of-dc-after-attack-on-former-doge-worker https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/08/declaring-a-crime-emergency-in-the-district-of-columbia https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/dc-police-commander-suspended-crime-statistics/3959566/ https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1955292615420588495 https://www.kvue.com/article/news/local/homeless/austin-homeless-heal-initiative-highway-183-oak-knoll-relocation/269-d09e5261-6b52-42c0-a550-a3dcf16fa6e7 https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/06/24/fannie-mae-freddie-mac-privatization/84342221007 https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-eyes-500-billion-valuation-potential-employee-share-sale-source-says-2025-08-06

15 Aug 1h 32min

OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis

OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis

(0:00) Bestie intros! Gavin Baker, Ben Shapiro, and Phil Deutch join the show (7:32) GPT-5 underwhelms, benchmark saturation, OpenAI's product excellence (18:14) AI's TAM, ROIC, and energy implications (27:27) China's major advantage and how the US can counter it (43:46) Political parties picking winners, energy subsidy reversal, how the bureaucratic branch was created and how to fix it (52:38) Socialism, OBBB impact on energy, does socialism in the US rely on Mamdani in NYC? (1:10:00) Tariffs update: $125B+ revenue so far, India and Switzerland hit hard, Trump's ad hoc approach (1:27:51) Nvidia chips being smuggled to China (1:31:13) Apple's $700B in buybacks since 2015 and failing AI strategy (1:40:09) Summer reading recommendations Join us at the All-In Summit: https://allin.com/summit Summit scholarship application: http://bit.ly/4kyZqFJ Get The Besties All-In Tequila: https://tequila.allin.com Follow Ben: https://x.com/benshapiro Follow Gavin: https://x.com/GavinSBaker Follow Phil: https://x.com/pdeutch Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-08/openai-s-gpt-5-met-with-mixed-reviews-confusion-in-first-day https://www.anthropic.com/news/build-ai-in-america https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whE75zEFBpU https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/time-series/demo/historic.html https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-chinese-nationals-arrested-complaint-alleging-they-illegally-shipped-china-sensitive https://www.ft.com/content/6f806f6e-61c1-4b8d-9694-90d7328a7b54

9 Aug 1h 50min

Trump AI Speech & Action Plan, DC Summit Recap, Hot GDP Print, Trade Deals, Altman Warns No Privacy

Trump AI Speech & Action Plan, DC Summit Recap, Hot GDP Print, Trade Deals, Altman Warns No Privacy

(0:00) Bestie intros! (1:44) Recapping "Winning the AI Race" in DC: Trump's speech, best moments, key takeaways (16:39) AI Executive Orders, unbiased AI, spiciest moments (34:32) Copyright, fair use, and patents in the Age of AI (56:37) Sam Altman highlights AI chatbot privacy issues (1:02:48) Hot GDP print, Fed refuses to cut, major US-EU trade deal Join us at the All-In Summit: https://allin.com/summit Summit scholarship application: http://bit.ly/4kyZqFJ Get The Besties All-In Tequila: https://tequila.allin.com Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://x.com/chamath/status/1950673622059667764 https://www.newsweek.com/microsoft-layoffs-h1b-visa-applications-2094370 https://www.wsj.com/business/media/amazon-to-pay-new-york-times-at-least-20-million-a-year-in-ai-deal-66db8503 https://x.com/simonw/status/1950592653047062578 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYn8VKW6vXA https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/gdp-q2-2025-.html https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-07-30-25 https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/07/the-eu-us-trade-deal-explained-eu-competitiveness https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=3&isuri=1&1921=survey&1903=84 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPY:NYSEARCA

1 Aug 1h 23min

Winning the AI Race Part 5: President Trump on the AI Action Plan

Winning the AI Race Part 5: President Trump on the AI Action Plan

(0:00) President Trump on the AI Agenda (54:14) Executive Order signing Thanks to our partners for making this happen: NYSE : https://www.nyse.com Visa: https://usa.visa.com Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

24 Juli 57min

Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum

Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum

(0:00) Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary (17:44) Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior and Chris Wright, Energy Secretary (35:11) Howard Lutnick, Commerce Secretary Thanks to our partners for making this happen: NYSE : https://www.nyse.com Visa: https://usa.visa.com Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

23 Juli 49min

Winning the AI Race Part 3: Jensen Huang, Lisa Su, James Litinsky, Chase Lochmiller

Winning the AI Race Part 3: Jensen Huang, Lisa Su, James Litinsky, Chase Lochmiller

(0:00) James Litinsky, MP Materials (13:32) Lisa Su, AMD (29:45) Chase Lochmiller, Crusoe (43:26) Jensen Huang, Nvidia Thanks to our partners for making this happen: NYSE : https://www.nyse.com Visa: https://usa.visa.com Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

23 Juli 1h 4min

Winning the AI Race Part 2: Vice President JD Vance

Winning the AI Race Part 2: Vice President JD Vance

(0:00) The Besties welcome JD Vance (1:24) Immigration (6:34) AI policy (9:27) Relationship with China: Technology competition, striking a balance, trade (12:42) Diplomatic relations when AI is at-scale, operating in a multipolar world (16:41) AI’s impact on jobs (22:02) Should America facilitate “National Champions” in strategic industries? (24:09) Working at the White House with Sacks Thanks to our partners for making this happen: NYSE : https://www.nyse.com Visa: https://usa.visa.com Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

23 Juli 26min

Winning the AI Race Part 1: Michael Kratsios, Kelly Loeffler, Chris Power, Shyam Sankar, Paul Buchheit, Jake Loosararian

Winning the AI Race Part 1: Michael Kratsios, Kelly Loeffler, Chris Power, Shyam Sankar, Paul Buchheit, Jake Loosararian

(0:00) The besties introduce the day with Jacob Helberg (9:08) Michael Kratsios, Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (18:24) Chris Power, Hadrian (35:15) Jake Loosararian, Gecko Robotics (44:37) Shyam Sankar, Palantir (1:00:33) Paul Buchheit, Y Combinator (1:13:35) Kelly Loeffler, Administrator of the Small Business Administration Thanks to our partners for making this happen: NYSE : https://www.nyse.com Visa: https://usa.visa.com Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

23 Juli 1h 34min

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