022 - Survivorship Bias - Megan Price

022 - Survivorship Bias - Megan Price

The problem with sorting out failures and successes is that failures are often muted, destroyed, or somehow removed from view while successes are left behind, weighting your decisions and perceptions, tilting your view of the world. That means to be successful you must learn how to seek out what is missing. You must learn what not to do. Unfortunately, survivorship bias stands between you and the epiphanies you seek.



To learn how to combat this pernicious bias, we explore the story of Abraham Wald and the Department of War Math founded during World War II, and then we interview Wald's modern-day counterpart, Megan Price, statistician and director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group who explains how she uses math and statistics to save lives and improve conditions in areas of the world suffering from the effects of war.

Patreon: http://patreon.com/youarenotsosmart


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Episoder(331)

077 - The Conjunction Fallacy

077 - The Conjunction Fallacy

Here is a logic puzzle created by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.Linda is single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with the...

2 Jun 201634min

076 - The Genetic Fallacy

076 - The Genetic Fallacy

We often overestimate and overstate just how much we can learn about a claim based on where that claim originated, and that's the crux of the genetic fallacy, according to the experts in this episode....

19 Mai 201639min

075 - Special Pleading / Moving the Goalposts

075 - Special Pleading / Moving the Goalposts

Sometimes you apply a double standard to the things you love, the things you believe, and the things crucial to your identity, and often you do so without realizing it. Special pleading is all about s...

5 Mai 201638min

074 - Begging The Question

074 - Begging The Question

If you believe something is bad because it is...bad, or that something is good because, well, it's good, you probably wouldn't use that kind of reasoning in an argument, yet, sometimes, without realiz...

21 Apr 201635min

073 - Bayes' Theorem

073 - Bayes' Theorem

We don’t treat all of our beliefs equally.For some, we see them as either true or false, correct or incorrect. For others, we see them as probabilities, chances, odds. In one world, certainty, in the ...

8 Apr 20161h 28min

072 - The Dunning-Kruger Effect (Rebroadcast)

072 - The Dunning-Kruger Effect (Rebroadcast)

In this episode, we explore why we are unaware that we lack the skill to tell how unskilled and unaware we are. The evidence gathered so far by psychologists and neuroscientists seems to suggest that ...

24 Mar 20161h 5min

071 - The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

071 - The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

When you desire meaning, when you want things to line up, when looking for something specific, you tend to notice patterns everywhere, which leads you to ask the question, “What are the odds?” Usually...

9 Mar 201644min

070 - The No True Scotsman Fallacy

070 - The No True Scotsman Fallacy

When your identity becomes intertwined with your definitions, you can easily fall victim to something called The No true Scotsman Fallacy.It often appears during a dilemma: What do you do when a membe...

25 Feb 201635min

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